The Chicago Bears have lost three straight and now welcome the rival Green Bay Packers to Soldier Field for an afternoon tilt on Sunday, November 17.
Green Bay should be rested following its bye, and our top same-game parlay Packers vs. Bears predictions expect Chicago's struggles to continue in Week 11.
Packers vs Bears SGP for Week 11
Packers -5.5
DJ Moore Over 43.5 receiving yards
Josh Jacobs Over 13.5 receiving yards
- Packers -5.5
- D.J. Moore Over 43.5 receiving yards
- Josh Jacobs Over 13.5 receiving yards
The Green Bay Packers are coming off their Week 10 bye, while the Chicago Bears have dropped three straight and averaged just 9.0 points per game of offense during the skid.
Chicago also ranks last in EPA per play, and rookie quarterback Caleb Williams has averaged a confidence-shattering 4.9 yards per passing attempt and 50.5% completion percentage during the losing stretch.
Williams and the Bears will now go up against a rested Green Bay defense that ranks fourth in QB hurry percentage despite blitzing the sixth least, and the Packers have also allowed the ninth-lowest EPA per play. Meanwhile, the Bears are banged up on the offensive line, with three starters currently gracing the injury report.
It sets up a tough spot, and Bears head coach Matt Eberflus is just 12-19-1 (43%) against the spread as an underdog.
Of course, Eberflus is also rumored to have lost the locker room, and passing game coordinator Thomas Brown is stepping in to call plays following the firing of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron.
However, I expect Bears wide receiver D.J. Moore to be more involved in the passing attack. He’s been limited to just 13 receptions for 104 yards on 24 targets over the past four games, and his targets per route run have dropped from 21.2% to start the season to just 15.1% during the four-game lull.
It’s inexcusable, and I’ll be shocked if Brown doesn’t pad Moore’s target share on Sunday. Moore’s receiving yards total was trading as high as 69.5 in Week 2 and at 63.5 as recently as Week 6, so we’re also landing a buy-low number.
The final leg of this same-game parlay turns to Packers running back Josh Jacobs. The Packers running back has eclipsed 12.5 receiving yards in six of nine games, and he should produce against a Chicago defense that is surrendering the ninth-highest catch percentage.
Jacobs has also posted his highest yards after catch per reception since his rookie season, and that adds up to multiple easy grabs and scampers to clear this modest total.
Not intended for use in MA.
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