Packers vs Bears Week 1 Picks and Predictions: Moore the Merrier for Bears in Season Opener

It’s been an interesting offseason in the NFC North, even more so when you look at the NFL odds for Week 1’s matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears.

Chicago made waves this offseason, dealing the No. 1 overall pick in the draft and adding much-needed talent on both sides of the ball, with big-name acquisitions like WR DJ Moore and LB Tremaine Edmunds.

Those moves and the expected maturation of dual-threat QB Justin Fields made the Bears a hot bet when it came to their offseason odds, and the early Week 1 spread installed Chicago as a 3-point home favorite.

Green Bay, on the other hand, was expected to tumble to the bottom of the NFC North with the departure of QB Aaron Rodgers, leaving the Cheeseheads in the hands of unproven passer Jordan Love. The preseason provided a lot of positives for the Packers, with Love shining in exhibition outings.

That’s drawn sharp money on Green Bay, not only taking the Over on its win total, but slimming this Week 1 spread to as low as Chicago -1.

I take a closer look at the point spread and Over/Under total for this divisional rivalry, and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Packers vs. Bears on September 10.

Packers vs Bears odds

Packers vs Bears predictions

I wish a defense would.

That’s the battle cry from Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields, who’s daring opposing defenses to let him pass from the pocket in 2023.

The dual-threat QB scorched stop units with his speed on the ground last year, amassing an incredible 1,143 rushing yards. A funny thing happened — as he and offensive coordinator Luke Getsy embraced his ability to break off big runs, Fields also blossomed as a passer in the second half of the schedule.

His accuracy went up, his touchdown passes spiked, and his interceptions went down, panning out to an respectable 89.2 passer rating in his final seven games. What’s more impressive is the fact Fields made these improvements with a ragtag bunch of receivers.

All offseason long, "coachspeak" around Fields’ maturation was the same cliches for every dual-threat QB: run less, be a pocket passer, blah, blah, blah. But I actually believe it.

By no means do I think Chicago should run less with Fields. That would be dumb. However, defenses will challenge Chicago to put the ball in the air, selling out to seal Fields in the pocket. And it’s what Fields and Getsy want, especially with a WR like DJ Moore in the lineup.

The shrewd move to sell the No. 1 overall pick to Carolina netted the Bears one of the most underrated receivers in all of football. Moore is coming off a down year with only 888 yards receiving in 2022 thanks to a clown car of QBs throwing him the ball in Carolina.

That said, Moore stacked the bulk of those gains later in the season, when Sam Darnold took over under center and hit some home run plays for the Panthers. He averaged just under 13 yards per catch in the first half of the schedule before erupting for 15.4 yards per reception in the final nine games.

Moore’s NFL player props for Week 1 have his longest reception total set at 21.5 yards (Over -109), a mark he eclipsed in four of his final six games of 2022. He finished the season with 17 plays of 20 or more yards, which sat tied for 11th in the league.

That output came with Carolina trailing most games and opposing defenses prepared for the pass. There will be a lot more open air in front of Moore in 2023 as Chicago sells the run with play action against stop units stacking the box.

Moore already showcased his big-play prowess in the preseason. He took a screen pass 62 yards for a touchdown against Tennessee and had a 40-yard catch-and-run versus Buffalo on a perfectly-placed strike from a pocket-passing Fields.

While most player projection models don’t produce a longest reception forecast, Moore’s average yards per reception are trickling out to 13-plus with some projections as high as 14.5 yards per catch for Sunday’s game. And if you look at the prop market movement, this total has been bobbling between 20.5 and 21.5 with the most recent move to the higher number.

My best bet: DJ Moore Longest Reception Over 21.5 (-109)

Packers vs Bears same-game parlay

DJ Moore Over 48.5 Receiving Yards

AJ Dillon Anytime Touchdown

Justin Fields Over 57.5 Rushing Yards

+900 at DraftKings

Since books are bummers and won’t let you SGP “longest” props, we’ll go with Over 48.5 receiving yards from Moore, who will take a chunk out of this total with that one big 20-plus play. Projections range from 45 yards to 65 yards, but the bulk of estimates are on the Over side of this total.

AJ Dillon is the hammer for this Green Bay Packers ground game and gets the short yardage carries in the red zone. Offseason analysts were calling for an uptick in his carries, and Dillon will test that new-look Bears defense at the goal line.

The Packers know Fields is going to run. But so did all those defenses that got smoked by his speed last season. All but one player model I investigated has Fields rushing for less than 58 yards in Week 1, with the ceiling as high as 68.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Packers vs Bears spread and Over/Under analysis

As mentioned, the Bears hit the board as 3-point home chalk back in May, and that spread stayed put for most of the summer. However, when the preseason picked up, any questions around Jordan Love’s ability under center for the Packers were somewhat answered.

Love completed almost 64% of his passes for a total of 193 yards in limited exhibition play, also adding three touchdown throws for a final QBR of 109.8.

Sharp guys had seen enough and grabbed Green Bay at the key number of +3, which knocked this spread to +2.5 and eventually wore down the line to +1 as of Thursday morning. My personal NFL power ratings (a new project for me in 2023) spit out an estimated spread of Chicago -2.47. 

According to BetMGM books, 59% of ticket count and 54% of the handle is riding on Chicago. Our Covers Consensus shows 61% of picks on the home side as well, which means the market move against that action is being driven by respected money.

Love’s success in the preseason has put some minds at rest in Wisconsin. However, he is surrounded by a young receiving corps which could be down its top two targets in Week 1 with WRs Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs missing practice with hamstring injuries. Both players are listed as questionable.

The Cheeseheads do have one of the better ground games in the NFL, led by Aaron Jones and Dillon. Green Bay was No. 9 in EPA per handoff last season and runs behind one of the more solid offensive lines when it comes to run blocking, with that unit finishing 2022 second in adjusted line yards.

Chicago’s defense was among the worst at… well, pretty much everything last year. The Bears were 28th in EPA allowed per handoff, but defensive coordinator Alan Williams revamped his schemes in order to stop the bleeding on the ground.

The defense boosted its linebacker corps with Edmunds and T.J. Edwards this offseason. Chicago also added beef on the defensive line, signing DeMarcus Walker, Andrew Billings, and Raheem Green along with pass rush specialist Yannick Ngakoue.

The Packers didn’t make the same improvements for 2023 and enter this season with a stop unit expected to finish in the back half of the league. Coordinator Joe Barry somehow survived to see another Sunday after his group wrapped 2022 among the worst in many advanced metrics, including 27th in EPA per play.

The Bears defense isn’t the only unit expected to make leaps and bounds in the Windy City. Fields went from bust to fantasy football god in the second half of last year and enters 2023 with a true No. 1 WR in Moore. The rest of Chicago’s skill positions are solid — good, but not great.

This total opened at 44 points and is now down to 42 points across the industry, with books reporting 61% of bets and 75% of the early money on the Under.

Given the Packers’ potent run game and Matt LaFleur’s methodical pace with his playbook (31st in seconds per play last year), Green Bay will try to win the time of possession battle against the Bears and ease Love into his first real start as QB1. The Pack were 8-9 Over/Under in 2022, with a 3-5 O/U count on the road.

Chicago’s offense could run at a slower pace than last season — if the defense holds it own. Last year, the Bears couldn’t stop anyone from scoring, which left the offense pressing pace playing from behind. That’s the main reason Chicago finished 10-7 Over/Under on the year.

Under Rodgers, the Cheeseheads absolutely owned the Bears (as you may have heard). Green Bay has gone 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 head-to-head matchups with Chicago, with a 5-5 O/U count in those games.

Can Love stake the same ownership claim in Week 1? The line move thinks so, at least.

Packers vs Bears betting trend to know

Chicago is 24-8 SU as a favorite since 2018 but has managed to go just 16-15-1 against the spread when giving the points in those games. Home field has been the advantage, however, with the Bears boasting a 14-5 SU count and 11-7-1 ATS record (60.5%) as chalk inside Solider Field during that span. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Bears.

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