It’s the dress rehearsal for the 2021 NFL season as the Green Bay Packers and Buffalo Bills will meet in the third and final installment of the preseason on Saturday.
Both clubs are taking very different approaches to this abbreviated tune-up as the Bills will start Josh Allen and play the majority of their starters, while the Packers will sit Aaron Rodgers and most of the team’s No. 1’s.
Due to these very different game plans, the Bills come into Saturday’s home match as an unheard-of 9.5-point preseason favorite after opening at -4 and blowing past the 7 and the 9. The total has been less volatile but did jump two points to 36.5 after the Bills announced that Allen would start.
Here are our NFL free preseason picks and predictions for Packers vs. Bills on Saturday, August 28, with kickoff at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Packers vs Bills game info
• Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
• Date: Saturday, August 28, 2021
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NFL Network
Packers vs Bills odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Packers at Bills betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Packers: Jordan Love QB (Questionable), DeAndre Thompkins WR (Out), David Bakhtiari T (Out), Will Redmond S (Out), Devin Funchess WR (Out), Za’Darius Smith LB (Out).
Bills: Cole Beasley WR (Out), Gabriel Davis WR (Out), Isaiah McKenzie WR (Questionable).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Bills are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Bills.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
It’s not every day we see a preseason team favored by 9.5 points, but after the licking Mitch Trubisky and OC Brian Daboll put on the Chicago Bears last week, maybe 9.5 isn’t enough. Aaron Rodgers will sit out and backup Jordan Love, who has a total of 28 NFL snaps under his belt, is still questionable after missing last week with a throwing shoulder injury. Buffalo, on the other hand, will play their starters — including MVP candidate Josh Allen.
Green Bay has been outscored 49-21 in the preseason and is unlikely to play their No. 1’s at the newly named Highmark Stadium in Buffalo. Trubisky and the backups rolled the Bears last week 41-15 and Sean McDermott’s team could be riding another early lead after he announced the No. 1’s will get some action Saturday.
If the Bills can go from Allen to Trubusky against a Green Bay team hesitant to play its starters, we’re having trouble finding reasons to back the Pack after how good Trubisky looked with the No. 2’s last week. The Chicago castoff looked like a perfect fit for Daboll’s system, as the Bills’ offense was well distributed last week and gained chunks of yards on the ground (five players with 10-plus yard carries), took short passes for big gains, and made tacklers miss. This is a beautiful offense to watch as even the backups can produce Daboll’s visions.
For Green Bay, it could be the Kurt Benkert show after Matt LaFleur handed Love the backup role behind Rodgers earlier this week and has been non-committal about starting him Saturday. Love missed last week with a shoulder injury he sustained in the Week 1 preseason game against the Texans. He returned to practice on Monday and has slowly worked his way back into 11-on-11 drills. LaFleur said that Love could potentially start, and play the first half if he is healthy enough, but that is yet to be determined as of Friday night.
Benkert, the former practice squad QB, is 26 for 38 through two games for 239 yards but has had struggles giving the ball away with two picks and another pair of fumbles (one lost).
The Green Bay running game has produced just 3.6 yards per carry through two games and the passing game will be without WR Devin Funchess (season-ending injury) who had six grabs for 70 yards in the first game. Benkert & Co. also managed just 143 passing yards last week in a negative game script versus the Jets, so there isn’t a lot to like about this Green Bay preseason offense and if Buffalo gets up by double digits, the Pack could struggle to answer.
As mentioned above, Love has only seen 28 NFL snaps in his brief career — all against the Texans two weeks ago — and Benkert will be lucky to crack the final 53. There is a reason the books are giving the Packers 9.5 points in a preseason game.
The books are begging us to take the Pack, but we don’t trust this offense to move the ball well enough to play catch-up if need be. The Bills’ defense held the Bears to just 1 for 15 on third and fourth downs last week — and that was versus a pair of decent preseason QB’s in Andy Dalton and Justin Fields.
PREDICTION: Buffalo -9.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
In the first week of the preseason, the Under went 13-3. In Week 2, the Under was still profitable at 6-9-1 O/U. The average total sits at 33.9 for Week 3, which is more than three points lower than Week 1's average.
Only three games on the Saturday slate have had their total move north of the opening number. This total opened at 34.5 and has teetered-tottered on the key number of 37, with some books staying on the 36.5 while others are stopping at 37.
The Bills crushed their total last week by themselves, using a combination of creative play-calling and some poor Chicago tackling. Trubisky was in control of the offense and taking the Over on Saturday means putting most of our faith in the Bills’ ability to score versus the Packers.
Allen will start but we aren’t sure the play calling will be too aggressive for Buffalo’s biggest star. Regardless, Allen won’t see much action, which means Trubisky should continue to keep rolling. The Packers allowed 70 total plays to the Texans in Week 1 and if Allen and Trubisky can get that kind of volume — plus more great play from the special teams unit (which had a punt return TD last week versus Chicago) — there is no reason to believe that they can’t put up four-to-five scores against a Green Bay defense that has allowed a total of 49 points to the Texans and Jets so far in the preseason.
Although the Packers won’t be playing most of their starters, Love and Benkert are talented enough QB's to tread water — unlike many preseason QB’s. Green Bay could also be leaning on the passing game Saturday, which is great for Over bettors.
Last week, Green Bay had a great opportunity to evaluate the running back competition after rushing the ball 32 times in a negative game script, compared to 26 passes. But with Devin Funchess hitting the infirmary this week, there are a couple of WR roster spots up for grabs on Saturday. Malik Taylor, Juwann Winfree, Equanimeous St. Brown, and Reggie Begelton will have one last time to present their cases for a final roster spot. Taylor has nine grabs for 116 yards and could see a big role Saturday.
There are too many indicators of a great Over here: high spread, competent back-up QB play, starters in play, and a possible high volume of passing. If the weather holds off, which is looking promising, we have no problem backing the Over — even with Love’s uncertainty.
PREDICTION: Over 36.5 (-110)
Packers vs Bills betting card
- Buffalo -9.5 (-110)
- Over 36.5 (-110)
Picks made on 8/27/2021 at 4:11 p.m. ET
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