The Green Bay Packers and the Kansas City Chiefs will conclude their respective preseason slates at Arrowhead Stadium on Thursday night.
Each club owns a 1-1 record in the preseason thus far. Aaron Rodgers hasn't played a preseason game since 2018, and that trend will continue tomorrow night.
While Patrick Mahomes hasn't been ruled out for this one by head coach Andy Reid, the Chiefs' star has played in only three series this preseason. Should bettors back the Pack in this spot, or will Kansas City cover?
Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for Packers vs Chiefs on Thursday, August 25.
Packers vs Chiefs odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The spread has been highly volatile in the lead-up to this clash. The Chiefs opened as consensus favorites of -1, but the Packers soared to as high as -3 on Tuesday before falling back to -1 at the majority of sportsbooks on Wednesday afternoon. The consensus opening total was 39.5, but that number is long gone, and the total has since plummeted to 35.5 at most sites.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Packers vs Chiefs predictions
Predictions made on 8/24/2022 at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Packers vs Chiefs game info
• Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
• Date: Thursday, August 25, 2022
• Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NFL Network
Packers at Chiefs betting preview
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Betting trend to know
Green Bay is 0-6 straight up in its last six preseason road games. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs Chiefs. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Chiefs.
Packers vs Chiefs picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The spread has swung wildly in favor of the Packers, perhaps on the assumption that Patrick Mahomes will not play in the preseason finale on a quick turnaround.
Jordan Love and company also haven’t shown enough so far this preseason to justify taking Green Bay as road favorites in this one. Mahomes has relished his brief playing time thus far this preseason, scoring a touchdown in each of his three drives. If he suits up for any amount of time in this one, the Green Bay reserves could fall behind early and never recover.
The Packers’ defense was able to contain Ian Book and the Saints at Lambeau Field last week — surrendering just 10 points — but two weeks ago, they were torched for 28 points by the 49ers at Levi’s Stadium.
It may be too early to call Love a bust, but his preseason stats are not very encouraging thus far. The Utah State product is 25-for-48 (52.1 percent) with a modest 6.0 yards per attempt through two games. He’s tossed three touchdowns but has also tallied as many interceptions.
The Chiefs’ defense has played fairly well this preseason, allowing just 33 points through two contests. The trends strongly suggest that the steam on the Packers is misguided. The home team has won eight of the last nine preseason games between these two squads, covering the spread seven times.
The last time a visiting club won a preseason game in this rivalry was back in 1998. Green Bay hasn’t won on the road in preseason since 2017, and the Packers are unlikely to snap that streak on Thursday night.
Prediction: Chiefs +1.5 (-114 at BetRivers)
Over/Under analysis
If the Chiefs prevail in this contest, it won’t be because they’re piling up points. Both teams could struggle to move the chains in this tilt. Mahomes’ primary backup this preseason has been Shane Buechele, who’s completed a modest 20-for-34 of his passes (58.8 percent) for 169 yards with a 1-1 touchdown/interception ratio.
Dustin Crum hasn’t been much better, going 9-for-14 for only 45 yards with no touchdowns. The running game has been stagnant for K.C. through two exhibition matches, as Isiah Pacheco leads all tailbacks with 14 yards on six carries. Presumptive RB1 Clyde Edwards-Helaire has 10 yards on four rushes.
Justin Watson — an afterthought on the Buccaneers roster for the last four seasons — has turned some heads in exhibition play, hauling in seven passes for 98 yards. However, it remains to be seen if he can sustain that level of production, especially if Mahomes isn’t the one targeting him.
Tyler Goodson has been a workhorse for Green Bay through two weeks but has only gained 78 yards on 22 rushing attempts. This means the uninspiring Love will likely have to carry the Packers’ attack.
Under bettors should prevail at a fair line of 36.0, and I'd play it down to 34.5.
Prediction: Under 36 (-110 at DraftKings)
Best bet
Though the Under looks like a solid play, it’s much too tempting to pass up a chance to grab points with the Chiefs. Love hasn’t proved he can successfully lead the Packers' offense, and their running game has seen only modest gains through two preseason tilts.
Even if Mahomes doesn’t suit up, Green Bay won’t prevail if its defense plays like it did in their first road exhibition game. Historical trends also indicate that Kansas City represents a bargain as underdogs in this contest.
Pick: Chiefs +1.5 (-114 at BetRivers)
