The NFL takes to the field in Sao Paulo, Brazil for a special Friday Night showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles.
No two teams had more contrasting finishes to 2023 but my Packers vs. Eagles predictions are counting on Philly's offense to rebound after its late-season faceplant last year.
Read on for my Friday Night Football best bet as I dish out my NFL picks for September 6.
Packers vs Eagles prediction
My best bet
Eagles team total Over 25.5 (-116 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Philadelphia Eagles’ stumble down the stretch was bad, and almost grotesque enough to forget just how good this team was. Philadelphia is ready to put that wet fart of a finish behind it, especially on offense.
The team brought in Kellen Moore as its new offensive coordinator, handing the former Cowboys offensive coordinator a loaded depth chart on that side of the ball. The Eagles have an explosive one-two punch in the backfield with running back Saquon Barkley and dual-threat quarterback Jalen Hurts, as well as downfield threats in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith to complement reliable tight end Dallas Goedert underneath. Better yet, they all play behind an offensive line still rated among the best in the NFL.
All the buzz out training camp has been glowing for Moore’s influence on this offense, which was already pretty good before he got there. Last season, the Eagles averaged 28 points per game in the opening 12 weeks of action before the wheels came off in December, and defenses adjusted to Brian Johnson's stagnant playcalling.
Moore’s schemes made Dallas one of the top-scoring offenses during this tenure there, and the Eagles’ surplus of skill players is a lot for even the savviest of defensive coordinators. Unfortunately for the Green Bay Packers, new DC Jeff Hafley is greener than his team’s jersey (which is bad in more ways than one in Brazil).
Hafley is flipping Green Bay to a 4-3 front and working with a stop unit that wasn’t fantastic in 2023, despite a soft schedule that spoon-fed the Cheeseheads some sub-par quarterbacks. There will be growing pains with a swap in schemes, and Philly isn’t going to ease Hafley into life in the pros.
Friday’s total is a tall one, considering the tempered totals in Week 1, sitting as high as 49.5. The Packers’ offense can handle their business, especially with the Eagles' defense also undergoing a swap in coordinator (Vic Fangio), so this Brazil game has the potential to turn into a shootout.
That makes me like the Over on Philly’s team total even more.
Packers vs Eagles same-game parlay
Eagles team total Over 25.5
Saquon Barkley Over 15.5 receiving yards
Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown
The Eagles offense has a new life under their new OC and will prove too much for the Packers' revamped defense.
Barkley is a weapon in the passing game and misdirection will help him find space through the air. Projections flirt with 19 receiving yards in Week 1.
Hurts’ tush is aching for a push. Even with Jason Kelce retired, this Eagles O-line is among the best groups in the land and they'll get their QB into the end zone.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
All Users
Barkley/Jacobs to combine for 120+ rush yards (was -180, NOW +115!)
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Packers vs Eagles odds
Packers vs Eagles live odds
Packers vs Eagles opening odds
- Spread: Green Bay +1.5 (-110) | Philadelphia -1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Green Bay -105 | Philadelphia -115
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (-110)| Under 50.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Packers vs Eagles spread and Over/Under analysis
• The Eagles opened as short as 1.5-point favorites for this trip to Brazil when the schedule launched. There have been plenty of positive sharp sentiments on Philadelphia this summer, which has driven this spread to as high as Eagles -3 before buyback on the Packers slimmed the spread to -2.5. Over at FanDuel, 66% of tickets and 70% of handle are on the Eagles spread.
• The Over/Under hit the board as high as 50.5 points. Early play was on the Under, dropping this number to as low as 48 points before the total ticked back up to 49 points heading into Week 1.
• The game is being played at Corinthians Arena in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Unlike most international games, which can often have strange circumstances or schedule snags, this Week 1 trip to South America seems pretty cut and dry. The field looks to be in good shape and temperatures and travel won’t be an issue for either team as they stay in the Eastern Time zone.
• Jalen Hurts 240.5 passing yards is one of the most popular bets today at FanDuel, with 84% of bets and 81% of handle on the Over.
• The Top 3 most popular anytime TD scorer wagers by bets and handle at FanDuel are Saquon Barkley (-125), Jalen Hurts (+100), and Josh Jacobs (-105).
Packers vs Eagles betting trend to know
Philadelphia is 18-8 SU but just 11-14-1 ATS away from Lincoln Financial Field under head coach Nick Sirianni. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Eagles.
Packers vs Eagles game info
| Location: | Corinthians Arena, São Paulo, Brazil |
| Date: | Friday, 9-6-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Peacock |
Packers vs Eagles latest injuries
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