The Philadelphia Eagles got back to their winning ways last week and get a great matchup Sunday night vs. a very injured Green Bay Packers team. Philly has been getting hit hard on the ground of late but with the injuries to Aaron Jones and the Green Bay offensive line, can the Cheeseheads even take advantage as 6.5-point road dogs?
Find out in my free NFL player prop picks for the Packers vs. Eagles on Sunday Night Football. Be sure to also check out Jason Logan's full game betting preview!
Packers vs Eagles props
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Packers vs Eagles SNF props
Under my thumb
Aaron Rodgers confessed to the media this week that he has been playing with a broken thumb for multiple weeks now. His interceptions are up and he is averaging 231 passing yards per game — easily a career low.
Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers confirmed today that he has been playing a with a broken right thumb, via @RobDemovsky.https://t.co/XxdBsQO89Y
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 23, 2022
Now he faces an elite pass defense in the Eagles that allows a 69.9 passer rating, the lowest mark in all of football. Philadelphia comes into the match at nearly full health on defense while the Packers are still dealing with the constant injuries of David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins, who missed practice on Wednesday but were limited on Thursday.
Even at less than 100%, it could be trouble vs. an Eagles squad that generates pressure at a Top 5 mark in the league. Rodgers’ 37.2% completion percentage under pressure ranks 23rd in football.
This is an injured quarterback, playing with a weak O-line, facing one of the best pass defenses in all of football. The chances of Rodgers hitting the Over on his passing total of 232.5 are slim and worth a bet to the Under for me. This is also a Green Bay offense that hasn’t been abandoning the run when trailing by multiple scores meaning — even in garbage time — Rodgers might not get free yards.
Aaron Rodgers Prop: Under 232.5 passing yards (-115)
Fading the other Aaron
Aaron Jones is dealing with a pair of injuries this week at practice but doesn’t look in danger of missing Sunday night. Teams have had success running against Philadelphia lately, so I’d be very surprised if Matt LaFleur didn’t continue to pound the ground with his team that has elected to do so 44% of the time over their last three outings.
Getting Jones involved in the passing game may be more difficult Sunday night, though. Philadelphia is allowing just 23.4 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs all season.
Jonathan Taylor had three catches for 10 yards last week, Antonio Gibson had 14 yards on three grabs the week before, and Najee Harris gained just 26 yards on six catches in Week 7. Even with decent passing volume, opposing running backs are finding nowhere to go with the ball.
Jones is 9-1 to the Under 25.5 receiving yards over his last 10 games and managed just 20 receiving yards with seven targets last week. If the Packers decide to keep pounding the rock, Jones will have fewer opportunities in the passing game. And with how stout the Eagles have been vs. RBs in the open, Jones will need volume to go Over 25.5 receiving yards and it might not be there.
Aaron Jones Prop: Under 25.5 receiving yards (-115)
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Picking a winner
The Eagles have the most interceptions on the season and are averaging 1.3 picks per game. The defense comes into this game healthy and faces a quarterback playing with a broken thumb and a hurt offensive line — who also has thrown six picks across his five road games this season.
Rodgers’ struggles on the road are legit this year as he has a 7:6 TD:INT ratio away from Lambeau and now is up against the most dangerous secondary in football in a game that Green Bay will likely be playing from behind in.
Rodgers has thrown 14 interceptable passes (21st) this season, per Player Profiler. He sits outside the Top 15 in most accuracy metrics and his thumb issues are likely a big part of it. The offensive line could struggle to protect him and if his other road games are any indication, he’ll likely need to throw the ball 35-plus times.
Against a defense that generates a lot of pressure, Rodgers could be getting the ball out earlier than he’d prefer. With three players with at least three picks on the year, wherever Rodgers throws could be a potential turnover.
The #Eagles defense
— Jeff Kerr (@JeffKerrCBS) November 21, 2022
Yards per game allowed -- 300.6 (2nd in #NFL)
Takeaways -- 20 (1st)
INT -- 13 (1st)
Yards per play allowed -- 4.6 (1st)
Drives ending in turnover -- 21.7% (1st)
Drives ending in offensive score -- 29.3% (3rd)#FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/z6MLlt3hrm
Compared to Jalen Hurts who is +105 to throw an interception, Rodgers at +110 is infinitely better value when considering the matchup, game script, and recent form.
Aaron Rodgers Prop: Over 0.5 interceptions (+110)
