Early Packers vs Lions Predictions, Picks, and Odds for TNF Week 14

One of the biggest games of the year goes down on Thursday Night Football in Week 14.

The Green Bay Packers come to Motown for a massive matchup with the Detroit Lions, with both teams rested and ready having played on the holiday Thursday the week before.

I look into the opening odds and initial line adjustments, giving my early NFL picks, leans, and predictions for Packers at Lions on Thursday, December 5.

Packers vs Lions predictions

Early spread lean
Packers +3.5 (-118 at FanDuel)

My analysis

This spread opened with the Detroit Lions -4.5 and was quickly cut down to -3.5 with early play on the Green Bay Packers. 

This is a rare line move away from Detroit, which has been an ATM against the spread (9-3) and drawing one-sided support from the betting markets every week. That initial action on Green Bay +4.5 is very telling, especially since we’ll likely see public play come in blind on the Lions closer to Thursday’s kickoff. 

Detroit has injury concerns on defense, especially on the line and that’s a soft spot Green Bay could exploit with its power rushing game. The Packers have leaned into the ground attack in the second half of the season and if the Cheeseheads can control the football and the pace, it can park the Lions’ explosive offense on the sideline.

The Packers lost 24-14 to the Lions at home in Week 9 despite outgaining Detroit by 150 yards. Green Bay finished 1-for-4 in the red zone, took 10 penalties for 67 yards, and Jordan Love was picked off for a 27-yard interception return touchdown.

Since that loss, the Packers have had a bye week roll into a three-game winning streak in which the team ranks No. 4 in EPA per play as well as success rate per snap. Green Bay has also remedied its red-zone woes, scoring a touchdown on 73% of its trips inside the 20-yard line during that winning run.

With the Cheeseheads chasing the Lions in the NFC North and vying for a postseason spot, this is Green Bay’s biggest game of the year. I’ll lean toward the underdog above the field goal, with that early line move toward the Packers as a compass.

Early Over/Under lean
Under 51.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

My analysis

The Over/Under is at 51.5 points, which is a tall total for a mid-week matchup as well as on the high end compared to 2024 totals. There have been only 12 closing totals above 50 points this season, with those games finishing 5-7 O/U.

The Packers will want to avoid getting into a shootout with the Lions on the fast indoor surface of Ford Field. Even with the receiving corps likely back at full strength (WR Romeo Doubs back at practice this weekend), head coach Matt LaFleur has anchored his attack in the run.

Only Philadelphia has run the ball more than Green Bay since Week 11, with the Packers handing off at a 56% clip. The Cheeseheads run a fairly methodical pace, averaging the third-fewest plays per game during their winning streak and utilizing hurry-up schemes at the 14th-lowest rate.

As for the Lions offense, it is extremely efficient but has roughed up some weaker defenses over the past three games, taking down Jacksonville, Chicago, and Indianapolis. The Packers present a step up in terms of opposing stop unit.

Green Bay is 10th in EPA allowed per play on the season and has held each of its last three opponents to 19 points or less. The Packers checked Detroit to only 261 yards (4.7 yards per play) and 17 points on offense when they clashed in Week 9, staying Under the closing total of 49 points.

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