This evening might not be the most riveting Thursday nighter with the Chicago Bears hosting the Carolina Panthers as 3.5-point home favorites, but the lack of prying eyes could certainly foster some inefficient betting markets for TNF odds.
Even with Justin Fields looming in the shadows and potentially impacting the Week 10 odds outcome, is the current +3.5 spread as long as it’s going to get?
I break down tonight's NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Panthers vs. Bears on November 9.
If you're looking to play player props, be sure to check out our TNF prop picks and our Bryce Young odds spotlight!
Panthers vs Bears odds
Panthers vs Bears predictions
The Chicago Bears aren’t sure who their starting quarterback and No.1 running back will be this week, and if Justin Fields doesn’t suit up, bettors holding the Carolina Panthers at +3.5 could be sitting with some closing line value across a key number.
Fields is reportedly day-to-day as he works his way back from a right thumb injury. This 3.5-line seems to indicate that he will play and I honestly can’t see this line getting any longer.
There are doubts about the state of his throwing capability because, let's be honest, even though Fields showed improvement before the injury, he is not an exceptional passing quarterback.
The next option for this team is a rookie signal-caller in Tyson Bagent, who is coming off three interceptions last week. Chicago also leads the league in penalties over the last three weeks at 78 per game.
Fields is an upgrade but not guaranteed as of Tuesday to even start on the short week. The addition of Khalil Herbert to the backfield could potentially pose a challenge for this offense, given D'Onta Foreman's consistent performance over the past four weeks. When there are multiple running backs in the mix, it could lead to a less clear-cut distribution of production, reminiscent of the situation when Roschon Johnson's return crowded the backfield in Week 8.
Chicago has not been more than a field-goal favorite since 2021 and it's not a team I can’t trust as a 3.5-point favorite.
Bryce Young didn’t gain any of my trust with his performance last week vs. a weak Indy secondary, but I can’t pass up fading the Bears at +3.5 with Bagent getting the start on a short week. Chicago also has one of the worst pass defenses in all of football. If Young can burn a secondary on a short week, it’s likely Chicago’s, especially with the Bears generating the lowest amount of pressure on the opposing QB at 15.5%.
The Carolina defense was also decent last week, holding the Colts to just 3.5 yards per play and 2.6 yards per rush.
There are teams I can lay more than a field goal with and the Bears are not one of them. I think +3.5 at -115 odds is the dip of this Carolina market.
I’m fine with Fields starting at +3.5, and if Bagent starts, that would be even better.
My best bet: Panthers +3.5 (-115 at FanDuel) 30% live boost available
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Panthers vs Bears same-game parlay
Panthers +3.5
u39.5
Chuba Hubbard anytime TD
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Chuba Hubbard has a big role in this offense, especially after new play-caller Thomas Brown showed his cards last week and favored the run game. Miles Sanders got some play last week, but it was mostly in the second half while Carolina was trailing.
The TD and Under are producing a decent multiplier and if Carolina gets in the red zone, it will play things conservatively. Hubbard had all the RZ carries last week.
Both teams are very capable of shooting themselves in the foot as each team ranks highly in penalties and giveaways. I can't see how either offense puts together multiple long drives for scores Thursday night and if the teams can avoid turnovers that turn into immediate points, this short-week Under could be sweatless.
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Panthers vs Bears spread and Over/Under analysis
The Bears were 1.5-point favorites on the look-ahead last week, reopened at -2.5 on Sunday night, and sit as a soft 3.5-point fave as of Tuesday morning. It’s a tough spot to lay more than a field goal with the Bears, but you have to trust the market here as there's a reason bettors have moved this to as long as 3.5.
Fields could possibly start this game after missing the last three weeks. He was labeled day-to-day on Monday’s walk-through and is a coin flip to start as of Tuesday. If he starts, I think it stays at Chicago -3.5, and if he sits again, Chicago should close as less than a field-goal favorite.
The Panthers and Young didn’t do their stocks any favors last week after the 27-13 loss to the Colts, where the QB threw for just 173 yards on 39 passes and three picks. Young finished with a -6.3 CPOE and the third-worst passer rating of Week 9 (48.3). However, Chicago has the No. 31 pass defense per success rate, and even Russell Wilson dominated this secondary.
The total was as high as 41.5 on the look-ahead and has fallen as short as 39.5. This will jump up if Fields is the starter, but with the Panthers committed to running (even with a negative game script), it’s tough to get excited about a sub-40 total.
Last week was the first game that Carolina OC Thomas Brown called and it wasn’t pretty in terms of EPA/play. The Panthers finished with 3.9 yards per play, which ranked 25th last week. Carolina trailed 20-3 at halftime and still ran the ball 12 times on 21 plays to begin the second half. The unit ultimately finished 23rd in EPA/play, which was just one spot worse than the Bears.
As for props, Miles Sanders finally got some run in the offense last week at Chuba Hubbard's expense. Sanders finished last week with six carries and five targets for 61 yards, compared to Hubbard’s 67 yards on 16 carries and six targets. Hubbard got the volume but Sanders was much more efficient and could see more reps this time around.
Panthers vs Bears betting trend to know
The Bears have closed at -3 or shorter in 23 consecutive games. Find more NFL betting trends for Panthers vs. Bears.
Panthers vs Bears game info
| Location: | Soldier Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Thursday, November 9, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime Video |
| Opening odds: | Bears -1.5, 40.5 O/U |
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