Week 1 in the NFL features an NFC South showdown between a pair of rebuilding franchises as the Atlanta Falcons host the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers will be led by new head coach Frank Reich and first pick overall Bryce Young while the Falcons are handing over the reigns of their offense to second-year QB Desmond Ridder.
NFL betting lines opened with the Falcons as 3.5-point home favorites and the Over/Under at 42.5 but the total has plummeted to 39.5. Here are my best free Panthers vs. Falcons NFL picks and predictions for September 10.
Panthers vs Falcons odds
Panthers vs Falcons predictions
The Panthers mortgaged their future (and traded away their best wideout) for Bryce Young, who will hopefully give them stability at quarterback for the first time in years. The 2021 Heisman winner looked sharp in Carolina's preseason finale and has the second-best Offensive Rookie of the Year odds but there's always a learning curve for rookie passers.
Keep in mind that a first-overall-pick rookie QB hasn't won as a starter in Week 1 since 2002. Eight passers have come up short since then, although two of the last three (Kyle Murray and Trevor Lawrence) threw for more than 300 yards while the Joe Burrow-led Bengals lost by just three points after missing a field goal in the final seconds.
The Falcons don't have much more experience under center with Desmond Ridder getting the job after an uneven rookie season. Ridder was selected in the second round in 2022 and after an ugly debut performance against New Orleans in Week 15, he was solid down the stretch, completing 67.4% of his passes for 611 yards and zero interceptions over the final three games.
While all eyes will be watching these promising QBs, it might be the defenses that play a bigger role in the outcome of this contest. Atlanta added a pair of veteran defenders to upgrade their line but this is still a stop unit that ranked 29th in the league in defensive EPA and struggled against both the run and pass last year.
The Panthers were a solid 17th in EPA/play allowed and they were even better against the run where they ranked 13th. That bodes well for their success against a Falcons offense that relies heavily on its ground game featuring Rookie of the Year favorite Bijan Robinson, along with Tyler Allgeier, and Cordarrelle Patterson.
Carolina's stop unit has some talented young defenders including Brian Burns, Derrick Brown, and Jaycee Horn, and should be even better after adding Justin Houston, Von Bell, and Sky Tuttle. In what is expected to be a low-scoring contest, I'll grab the team with the better defense catching points.
My best bet: Panthers +3.5 (-110 at bet365)
Panthers vs Falcons same-game parlay
Panthers +3.5 (-110)
Sanders Over rushing yards (-110)
Ridder Under 0.5 interceptions (-135)
Atlanta did a fantastic job of running the ball last year but they were awful at stopping the run. They allowed 130.2 rushing yards per game, ranked 25th in defensive rush EPA, and were dead-last in success rate.
Miles Sanders has dealt with nagging injuries throughout his career, but he's a dynamic back when healthy and rushed for a career-high 1,269 yards with Philly last year. The Panthers gave him a big contract in free agency and they'll need to use him in order to take pressure off their rookie QB.
Ridder was up-and-down with his passing performances last year but he didn't throw a single interception in four games. With Atlanta's offense reliant on its ground game, Ridder won't be asked to make many risky throws and should have a conservative game plan. That should lead to him not throwing a pick against a Panthers stop unit that came away with just 10 interceptions last year — the sixth-lowest number in the league.
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Panthers vs Falcons spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread hasn't seen much movement since opening with the home side as 3.5-point faves, but the total plummeted from the opening number of 42.5 all the way down to 39.5. There are several reasons for that drop with the Panthers having a rookie quarterback and an underwhelming receiving corps while the Falcons have a slow-paced, conservative offense that prefers to run the ball.
Atlanta ran the ball on 55.3% of all offensive snaps last season (the second-highest number in the league) and might be even more committed to the ground game this year after drafting Robinson with the eighth pick in the draft.
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Panthers vs Falcons betting trend to know
The Carolina Panthers have only hit the Over on the first quarter total in three of their last 20 games (-10.35 Units / -43% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Panthers vs. Falcons.
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Panthers vs Falcons game info
| Location: | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Sunday, September 10, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Opening odds: | Falcons -3, 43 O/U |
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Panthers vs Falcons weather
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