This NFC South clash doesn’t have the allure that it used to. The New Orleans Saints still have a chance of reaching the playoffs but their season has been derailed by injury. The Carolina Panthers are a hot mess and Matt Rhule is firmly on the hot seat.
Be sure to read our NFL picks and predictions for the Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints.
Panthers vs Saints odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The points total started at 37.5 and it’s risen to 38. The line has seen the Saints move from 6.5-point favorites to 7-point favorites.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Panthers vs Saints predictions
Predictions made on 12/30/2021 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Panthers vs Saints game info
• Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
• Date: Sunday, January 2, 2022
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Panthers at Saints betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Panthers: Cam Erving T (Out), Stephon Gilmore CB (Out), AJ Bouye CB (Out), Christian McCaffrey RB (Out).
Saints: Eric McCoy C (Out), Marcus Williams S (Out), Mark Ingram RB (Out), Tre'Quan Smith WR (Out), Marcus Davenport DE (Out), Terron Armstead T (Out), Jameis Winston QB (Out), Michael Thomas WR (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their past eight games following a double-digit home loss. Find more NFL betting trends for Panthers vs. Saints.
Panthers vs Saints picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The NFC South isn’t the strongest division in football right now. The Bucs have sealed the division, but they’ve now been hit by injuries, the Falcons are somehow 7-8 when they feel like a three-win team. That leaves the teams in Sunday’s matchup, the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints. The Saints have been ravaged by injury this season and last week by COVID. For the Panthers, it’s been problem after problem, with the head coach now under serious pressure.
Matt Rhule is firmly on the hot seat and it wouldn’t be a surprise if this were his penultimate game in charge of the team. The Panthers are out of playoff contention and have very little to fight for. It could be argued that they’ve had bad luck at times through the season. Their star player Christian McCaffrey has struggled with his health this year and Sam Darnold has had time out through injury.
After last week’s disgraceful decision to play both Cam Newton and Sam Darnold, Matt Rhule has confirmed that Darnold will be the starter for this game. The decision to alternate between the two quarterbacks last week was an embarrassment that didn’t help team cohesion and it didn’t really help either QB play well or show the franchise what they have in either man.
It’s clear that this Newton isn’t the same who was a former league MVP. His physical drop-off is telling and he’s not capable of leading a team anymore. Darnold has largely been disappointing in Carolina but Rhule is doing the right thing by giving him the start.
Quarterback has been the biggest problem for the Saints this year. Jameis Winston found himself on IR after starting the season, then Taysom Hill had injuries that forced Sean Payton into starting Trevor Siemian. Hill eventually found himself the starter and then COVID hit both him and Siemian, which led to fourth-string QB Ian Book starting in last week’s defeat.
There’s no way to describe last week’s performance other than bad. A humbling 20-3 defeat saw the team only achieve 164 total scrimmage yards. Thankfully, on Wednesday, the team activated both Hill and Siemian, so we’ll see the team have a capable, if not spectacular, QB this Sunday.
The strength of this team is their defense. They’re ranked fourth in defensive DVOA, with their run-stopping ability the highlight of their performances. Only five teams give up less yardage along the ground per game, and the Saints will likely do a good job of stopping Chuba Hubbard, McCaffrey’s replacement, on Sunday.
The problem, as it’s been all season for the Saints, is scoring points. In their past five games, they’ve scored just 65 points, averaging 13 points per game. Given that nearly half, 30, of those points came against the Jets it shows just how stagnant the team has been. Given the lack of quality at receiver, it’s no surprise that they’ve struggled to put up points when their best players are all better on the ground.
Matt Rhule’s Panthers aren’t defined by their defense but they’re not awful, ranked 12th in defensive DVOA. They should be able to do enough to keep this game tight and I’m backing the Panthers to cover. I wouldn’t even be shocked to see the Panthers pull off a surprise and secure the W here.
Prediction: Panthers +7 (-115)
Over/Under analysis
The total of 38 points is incredibly low but given the offensive struggles that both of these two teams have had in recent weeks, it makes sense. We’ve discussed the Saints' low points scoring but the Panthers haven’t been brilliant either, scoring just 20 points in the past two weeks.
The Under is 5-0 in the Saints’ past five games and has to be respected here. It’s a low total but we’ll take the Under again.
Prediction: Under 38 (-110)
Best bet
The Panthers aren’t great against the run, they sit fairly in the middle of the pack when it comes to rushing yards allowed per game this season. They’ve given up 118.5 yards per game and you’d have to expect Taysom Hill to see some success against them this week.
When it comes to the goal line, Hill is an intriguing option and he often scores when the team finds themselves within 10 yards of the endzone. Hill will need to perform well for the Saints to win this game and I think he has a good chance of scoring.
Pick: Taysom Hill anytime touchdown (+160 at FanDuel)
