Patrick Mahomes Odds and Props for Week 12: Can Kelce Bail Out Mahomes vs Raiders?

The Kansas City Chiefs have mustered just 47 total points in the last three weeks, resulting in two losses, including last week's Super Bowl rematch. This week they will host the Las Vegas Raiders, who have surrendered 30+ points to the Chiefs in nine straight games.

Can the Chiefs use their Week 12 matchup against the Raiders as a get-right spot for the offense? Or will this unit's struggles continue through this AFC West matchup?

Continue reading for free analysis of the Patrick Mahomes odds and free NFL picks ahead of the Chiefs vs. Raiders Week 12 matchup on Sunday, November 26.

Patrick Mahomes Week 12 prop picks

• Patrick Mahomes Under 262.5 passing yards
• P. Mahomes u259.5 pass yds/T. Kelce 90+ rec yds/T. Kelce o6.5 receptions

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Patrick Mahomes Week 12 prop pick

Patrick Mahomes Under 262.5 passing yards (-114)

Patrick Mahomes has completely owned the Raiders since entering the league. He is 9-1 all-time against the franchise, and the Chiefs have averaged 36 points per game with him under center in those games.

The two-time MVP has been otherworldly in those contests, boasting a 24-3 TD-INT ratio while averaging 304 passing yards per contest, which includes two 400+ yard performances. However things have been a bit more difficult for Mahomes as of late.

Mahomes has averaged just 251 passing yards in his last three games against Las Vegas, compared to the 327 yards he averaged in the seven prior. He has failed to log a 300+ yard game against the Raiders in his last three tries.

Mahomes' market definitely shades towards being overly tuned to the Over given that most bettors bet that way given his reputation and body of work. He has gone Under his passing yardage prop in eight of his 10 games this year and has gone under in three straight.

Prop: Patrick Mahomes Under 262.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Patrick Mahomes Week 12 same-game parlay

Patrick Mahomes Under 259.5 passing yards

Travis Kelce 90+ receiving yards

Travis Kelce Over 6.5 receptions

+900 at DraftKings

As we have mentioned in some of our prior Mahomes spotlights, the best way to get really favorable odds on same-game parlays is to take the opposite direction of a receiving yardage prop relative to the direction you take a passing yardage prop. In this example, since we are siding with the Under on Mahomes' passing yards, we should look for a receiving yards Over. 

Travis Kelce has struggled rather notably as of late, tallying just 16 catches for only 116 yards across his last three games. The last few times he has had any kind of multi-game stretch of muted production, he has gone off.

Last season, he had quiet performances in Week 2 and 3 but then had nine grabs for 92 yards and a touchdown in Week 4. Then after tallying just 43 and 38 yards in Weeks 17 and 18, respectively, he tallied 14 catches for 98 yards and two touchdowns in the Divisional Round. 

In the year prior, he had just 27 yards in both Week 13 and 14, and then had 10 catches for 191 yards and two touchdowns in Week 15. And then when he closed the 2021 regular season with just 59 total yards in the last two games, he racked up 108 yards and a touchdown in the Wild Card round.

It's no coincidence that Kelce's struggles in the last three weeks have aligned with the Chiefs' inability to score as of late. In a plus-matchup and in a spot where Kelce should bounce back, we should expect Mahomes to rely on him very heavily but to also fail to find success throwing elsewhere.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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