Patrick Mahomes Odds and Props for Week 16: 'Grim Reaper' Gifts Vegas

While Patrick Mahomes has not had the best of times as of late, he will hope to gift the Kansas City Chiefs a textbook Week 16 odds performance on Christmas Day.

After losing two straight to the Packers and Bills in prime time, Mahomes bounced back last week with a 300+ yard and two touchdown game for the Chiefs. He did, however, have two picks in that contest — bringing his tally to four across the last three games.

Will Mahomes shine against the Las Vegas Raiders in the latest NFL odds, or will Vegas ruin Christmas for the two-time MVP?

Continue reading for free Patrick Mahomes props as we gear up for Raiders vs Chiefs on Monday, December 25th.

Make sure to also check our Raiders vs. Chiefs betting analysis and MNF prop picks!

Patrick Mahomes Week 16 prop picks

• Over 0.5 interceptions
• Over 0.5 INTs + Pacheco Over 66.5 rushing yards + Rice Over 6.5 receptions

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Patrick Mahomes Week 16 prop pick

Over 0.5 INTs (+120)

Frequent readers of this Patrick Mahomes spotlight series know that there is one market we have continuously attacked throughout the season: his interception market.

The two-time regular season and Super Bowl MVP has built a reputation of being an accurate and lethal gunslinger for the Kansas City Chiefs, and despite persistent struggles to take care of the ball, his interception market continues to be priced like years past.

In his first season as a full-time starter, Mahomes posted a 2.1% interception rate. In the four seasons since then, he successfully avoided that mark and even hit an elite 1.0% interception rate in two of those seasons.

2023 has been a different story altogether, however, as Mahomes has passed to a 2.5% interception rate thus far — which is now his worst mark as a full-season starter. To drive home how bad it has been: Mahomes has gone pick-less in just three of his 14 games so far.

Yet, just like every other week, the quarterbacks market suggests he is unlikely to throw an interception. You can find Mahomes to throw an interception at as high as +120 odds — a ludicrous price all things considered. Those odds suggest just a 45% chance that Mahomes gifts the Las Vegas Raiders with the ball on Christmas when he has done exactly that for the rest of his opponents this year at a 79% clip.

Until this market corrects itself, we will continue taking this gift from oddsmakers.

Prop: Over 0.5 interceptions (+120 at DraftKings)

Patrick Mahomes Week 16 same-game parlay

Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions

Pacheco Over 66.5 rushing yards

Rice over 6.5 receptions

No-sweat promo available

+675 at DraftKings

The Raiders, however, will gift the Chiefs in their own way. Las Vegas' 104.2 rushing yards allowed per game to opposing running backs is the eighth-worst mark on the season. Isiah Pacheco returns for the Chiefs this week, and he may be a sneaky player to back on Christmas.

The second-year running back's rushing total can be found around 65.5, a number that may be a little too low. After missing two games, Pacheco returns to the backfield after passing that mark in three of his last four games, and he also comes back the same week the Chiefs placed Jerick McKinnon on injured reserve.

And with the spread implying a run-friendly game script, there certainly may be room on this number.

We'll complement Pacheco's ground involvement with Rashee Rice's involvement through the air. The second-round rookie receiver is slowly but surely planting himself as the team's top pass catcher, even out-producing Travis Kelce as of late.

Rice has had seven or more receptions in four straight games and has had no less than nine targets in each of those contests. More importantly, he has surpassed a 90%+ snap share in the last two games after never hitting above 70% in the 12 games prior.

His reception prop is set at 6.5, also providing some room here for the SMU standout.

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