The Las Vegas Raiders will take a seven-game losing streak to Arrowhead Stadium to face the 10-1 Kansas City Chiefs on Friday, November 29.
My top NFL picks for the Patrick Mahomes odds anticipate the Chiefs quarterback leading a conservative approach en route to an easy victory.
Patrick Mahomes player prop picks
- Best bet
Under 269.5 passing + rushing yards
(-114 at FanDuel) - SGP Pick
Under 269.5 passing + rushing yards
Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
225+ passing yards
(+667 at FanDuel)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Patrick Mahomes prop pick
My best bet
Under 269.5 passing + rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Kansas City Chiefs are a huge home favorite against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 13. After letting their foot off the gas and allowing the Carolina Panthers to climb back into last week’s game, I’m anticipating KC playing a full 60 minutes Friday.
While I expect Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes to have an efficient afternoon through the air, the likely return of running back Isiah Pacheco gives Kansas City an extra rusher to complement Kareem Hunt out of the backfield.
Although the Raiders have been solid against the run with a middling 4.3 yards per carry allowed and an eighth-ranked PFF run defense grade, I’m skeptical of a 2-9 road underdog that’s lost seven straight.
If the Chiefs' game goes according to plan, the KC coaching staff would prefer that Mahomes not run the football and take unnecessary hits. Scampering for a season-high 60 yards last week, Mahomes’ total in this market is at its highest number since Week 9, and he closed at 252.5 last week against Carolina.
As a result, I believe we’re landing an inflated number. Mahomes has averaged 4.0 rushes per game this season compared to 4.7 in 2023, and he hasn’t had a single designed run all year.
Additionally, Vegas’ pass rush PFF grade and defense-grade have dropped in consecutive weeks, which also affirms a team that’s packed it in. This could also be the perfect opportunity for Chiefs backup QB Carson Wentz to take some garbage-time snaps to close out the Raiders.
Patrick Mahomes same-game parlay
Under 269.5 passing + rushing yards
Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
225+ passing yards
Pairing two Overs with an Under is a good multiplier for same-game parlays, and this is a big window to middle because I’m not expecting Mahomes to pile up rushing yards Friday against the Raiders.
The two-time MVP has thrown for two or more touchdowns in five of the past six games, and he’s recorded 225 passing yards in seven of 11 for the campaign. I also value that Mahomes is sporting a career-high 80.6 adjusted completion percentage and a career-low 6.4 aDOT.
It’s the perfect combination to clear the low benchmark without reaching the higher threshold of this SGP. The Chiefs will have their way on offense and turn to the running game to close out the reeling Raiders.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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