Football fans love the “game within the game” and Thursday Night Football presents plenty of those micro matchups, none bigger than a battle between the reigning NFL MVP and Super Bowl MVP.
Lamar Jackson leads the Ravens into Arrowhead Stadium to face Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in this Week 1 opener, giving us a rematch of last year's AFC title game. Jackson passed for 272 yards in that game — over 30 yards more than Mahomes' efforts through the air.
However, the TNF odds see the box score looking quite a bit different tonight, pegging Mahomes as a 39.5-yard favorite in the head-to-head NFL odds. I break down the matchup in my Ravens vs. Chiefs predictions below.
Most passing yards: Lamar Jackson vs Patrick Mahomes (-39.5)
My best bet:
Patrick Mahomes -39.5 passing yards (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis:
Patrick Mahomes is the understandable favorite to top this NFL opener in passing yards. The Kansas City Chiefs had the seventh-highest pass rate last season while the Baltimore Ravens ran a more balanced attack, anchored in the rushing game (32nd in pass rate).
While Baltimore seemingly forgot how to run in the AFC title game (rushed only 16 times vs. season average and NFL high of 31.5 carries per game), expect plenty of ground and pound from the Ravens.
Not only does Baltimore have a two-headed monster in running back Derrick Henry and Jackson’s dual-threat abilities but one of the best ways to slow down Mahomes & Co. is to park their asses on the sideline with a methodical pace that keeps the clock ticking.
Kansas City is very stingy against the pass but finished last season ranked 28th in EPA per handoff and allowed 4.4 yards per carry. The 2024 stop unit remains softer at the second level compared to the defensive line and secondary. Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken not only has to test the Chiefs run stop but also keep the Kansas City pass rush honest, due to a suspect offensive line entering 2024.
That narrative already has projections for the Lamar Jackson odds coming in a little low. Some models sit as high as 234 yards, but most are south of 220 yards passing. My forecast for Lamar is just shy of 222.5 yards, which is more than his Week 1 odds total of 217.5 Over/Under.
As for Mahomes, we know KC’s best shot at winning this game is to put the ball in his hands. While he recorded only 241 yards in the AFC title game, he still connected on 30 of 39 attempts. The Ravens just did a good job of keeping everything in front of it and not letting Mahomes hit home runs over the top (average 6.17 yards per attempt).
Baltimore’s defense could see a regression from its outstanding numbers in 2023, especially with defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald gone to Seattle. The Ravens still return a Top-5 secondary and their pass pressure doesn’t give the offense much time for big plays to develop.
The game script sees a close contest, with the Chiefs currently set as 3-point favorites and the Over/Under at 47 points — three points higher than the closing total for the AFC Championship Game. It’s taller than most Week 1 numbers but not the highest on the board, giving respect to these stop units.
Player projections for Mahomes range from 263 yards to as high as 292, with my number coming out just above 271 passing yards. That’s pretty much where the player prop markets have his passing total for tonight, with most books dealing 269.5 O/U.
Strangely, FanDuel has a 52-yard gap between the two QBs when comparing individual O/U props but put this head-to-head handicap at just 39.5 yards. Measuring my projections, I don’t calculate as wide a difference but Mahomes is forecasted to have 49 passing yards more than Jackson on Thursday Night Football.
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