Monday night’s monster matchup between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills will be a mess, with the forecast for Orchard Park calling for wind gust close to 50 mph, possible snow showers throughout, and temperatures that "feel like" below 20 degrees.
Thankfully, most NFL bettors will be at home for this Week 13 finale, all toasty warm with a drink in hand and a full menu of Monday Night Football prop bets to choose from. We narrow down all the wondrous ways to wager on Pats at Bills with our favorite NFL prop picks for Monday Night Football.
Patriots vs Bills prop picks
- Allen Over 35.5 yards rushing (-110)
- Jonnu Smith Over 16.5 yards receiving (-110)
- Defensive/special teams TD? Yes (+215)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Patriots vs Bills MNF props
Just Josh’n
The Patriots defense is stingy enough to make any quarterback balk when looking downfield. But mix in some wild wind and possible snow, and Bills QB Josh Allen may have to bail on putting the ball through the air and do plenty of the heavy lifting with his feet for the home side.
Allen is a slippery runner, picking up 383 yards rushing on 69 carries this season, along with three rushing touchdowns. He rushed for 43 yards on eight runs in the blowout over New Orleans on Thanksgiving and his legs are a huge asset on third downs and broken plays, which will be aplenty tonight.
New England ranks among the best in the NFL at limiting rushing yards from opposing QBs but hasn’t played many dual-threat passers who can rumble like Allen. As well, during the last eight games, the Patriots have held an average margin of +6.6 points at the half, forcing foes to throw the ball in a game of catch-up. I don't see them having that same advantage versus Buffalo.
Books have Allen’s rushing yards total set at 35.5 yards - a mark he’s eclipsed in six of his 11 starts in 2021. He’ll get Bills Mafia in a frenzy with some big runs tonight.
PICK: Josh Allen Over 35.5 yards rushing (-110 at Bet365)
Jonnu Can Do It
New England tight end Jonnu Smith had a solid day in Week 12, reeling in three of four targets for 49 yards in the win over his former team, the Tennessee Titans.
Smith has been quiet most of the year, with just 25 grabs on 40 targets for a total of 259 yards receiving but appears to be playing a bigger role beyond just run blocking. He’s played almost 49% of snaps the past two weeks, snatching six balls for 66 yards – a quarter of his total production on the season.
He garnered glowing reviews from head coach Bill Belichick after the Titans game and could be busy on Monday night with the Bills ranked No. 1 in pressure rate and QB Mac Jones looking for a release valve. On top of that, the deeper looks may not be possible if the wind and snow are as bad as forecasted, so expect plenty of short dink-and-dunk throws from New England. Well, more than usual.
Some books have his receiving yards prop total as high as 18.5 yards, but FanDuel is dealing 16.5 O/U at a flat rate.
PICK: Jonnu Smith Over 16.5 yards receiving (-110 at FanDuel)
Wager on wild
With two of the top defenses in the NFL butting heads in conditions as nutso as this, you have to bank on lunacy.
The Bills and Patriots sit tied for No. 2 in takeaways in the NFL with 25 apiece on the season. Buffalo has 16 interceptions and nine fumble recoveries while New England has 19 picks and six fumbles gobbled up heading into Week 13. Between these heated AFC East rivals, there have been four INTs returned for touchdowns – three coming from the Pats.
As for special teams, kicking is going to be the biggest challenge in Buffalo tonight with the wind gusts flirting with 50 mph.
That’s going to make for some wayward kickoffs and punts as well as potentially blocked punts, which has happened to New England twice this season. Buffalo also had a punt blocked for a touchdown in Week 1. The Bills return team - ranked sixth in return yards on kickoffs - is a major threat to run one back. Both sides sit atop the punt return ratings as well, with the Patriots third and Bills ninth in average yards per punt return.
There are a few ways to place this wager, depending on your level of greed. You can take either defense/special teams units to score a touchdown anytime at +550 or you can split the difference and get two-for-one at +215.
PICK: Will there be a defensive/special teams TD? Yes (+215 at Bet365)
