Sunday sees two 2-3 teams facing off as the New England Patriots hit the road against the Cleveland Browns. Neither team looks ready for the playoffs currently but we’re only heading into Week 6 here, so a win here could rejuvenate either team's hopes for the season.
Don’t miss our NFL picks and predictions for the New England Patriots vs. Cleveland Browns.
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Patriots vs Browns best odds
Patriots vs Browns picks and predictions
On Sunday we get to see Bill Belichick take his New England Patriots team to Ohio to face his former team, the Cleveland Browns. The Browns are 2.5-point favorites and with good reason.
Belichick is one of the best minds in football and when he speaks, you listen, and there is one player he was full of praise for: Browns running back Nick Chubb. Belichick said that the former Georgia man was “very hard to tackle” and that he has “got tremendous contact balance, play strength, good vision.”
If you’ve watched Chubb this season, then it’s very hard to disagree and Chubb comes into this game as the NFL’s leading rusher. His ability on the ground will be concerning for Belichick, with the Patriots in the top half of the league when looking at average amount of rushing yards allowed per game, giving up 128.8 yards.
The Browns have made Chubb the focal point and even with Kareem Hunt on the roster and Amari Cooper as the team’s best wideout, it’s clear that Chubb is the man. His rushing line for Sunday sits at 89.5 yards. That’s a number he’s gone Under just once, only managing 87 against the Jets in Week 2. He has had 100+ rushing yards in 80% of his games this year and has to be backed to do it again.
His 593 rushing yards is a league-high, he’s had more rushing touchdowns than anybody with seven, and is ranked No. 1 with missed tackles forced, sitting on 42. He’s a truly elite back and a pure runner, almost something of a throwback to the era of power football.
Belichick has identified Chubb as the Browns’ best weapon and although he’s a genius, it’ll be hard for him to scheme up a way to stop Chubb, who just feels unbeatable right now. Don’t overthink this one, just back Chubb Over 89.5 rushing yards.
My best bet: Nick Chubb Over 89.5 rushing yards (-110)
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Patriots vs Browns spread analysis
The Browns are 2.5-point favorites and rightly so given home-field advantage and the continuing question marks around the health of the Patriots’ Mac Jones. Jones is still listed as questionable but he’s been spotted in practice with a massive knee support over his left knee.
Jones may be near return but with Bailey Zappe performing so well in Jones’ absence, there’s no need to rush him back. He’s 1-1 in his two starts but the defeat was only a narrow loss to the Packers and last week, Zappe excelled against the Lions.
He may have only thrown one touchdown pass but he was calm and assured and managed the game well. His passer rating sat at 100.0, just down from 107.4 in that loss in Green Bay. He’s a talented backup and Belichick can be confident that the former Western Kentucky QB, who was only drafted in the fourth round this year, can lead them to victories.
The Patriots are ranked ninth in defensive DVOA and if they’re going to win this game, then the victory will have to come from strong defensive performance and one in which they’ll need to improve against the run, where they’re ranked 28th in DVOA.
With the Patriots coming into this with question marks around their QB, and the Browns looking very strong in their identity, I’d lean towards backing the Browns to win this and cover the spread in the process.
Patriots vs Browns Over/Under analysis
The Patriots’ defense has been impressive at times this season, forcing the Lions into a goose egg last week, and we know how much Belichick will relish scheming up a way to limit the Browns. Whether they can really stop either Chubb or the Browns is up for debate but I’m confident that we’ll see the Patriots manage to slow down that offense and keep this game closer.
I’m not overly confident that the Patriots will be free-scoring on offense, either, and they still don’t look overly dangerous. The Under is 14-2 in the Patriots’ last 16 games on the road when facing a team with a losing record and is 11-5 in the team’s last 16 games on the road overall.
Trends on the Browns’ side also point towards the Under, with it going 7-1 in the Browns’ past eight games against a team with a losing record.
Don’t overthink this one and just back Under 43.5, this is a game that screams out that’ll it won’t be full of great offensive play.
Patriots vs Browns betting trend to know
The Under is 7-1 in the Browns' last eight games against a team with a losing record. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Browns.
Patriots vs Browns game info
| Location: | FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Sunday, October 16, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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