Patriots vs Dolphins Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 8: Don't Let Last Week's Results Fool You

The New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins will be entering their Week 8 matchup in very different moods.

New England was on the right end of one of the biggest upsets of the year vs. the Bills while the Dolphins are spending the week being accused of being frauds after a disappointing loss to the Eagles.

This is the second matchup of the season between the teams with Miami winning the first game 24-17 in Week 2. The Dolphins are the biggest favorite on the NFL odds board, coming in as a 9.5-point favorite with the total sitting at 47.

Let’s take a look at what we’ve seen from these teams this season, how they match up, and my free NFL picks for Patriots vs. Dolphins on October 29.

Patriots vs Dolphins odds

Patriots vs Dolphins predictions

It can be easy to be swept away by an NFL team's most recent result, but it’s important not to be a prisoner of the moment.

Regarding these teams and this matchup, should we really downgrade the Miami Dolphins much after losing on the road to the defending NFC champs? At this time last week, they were near the top of most people’s power rankings.

As for the New England Patriots, they had their performance of the year against the Bills, but let’s not be quick to forget the loss to the Raiders the week before that, along with two 30+ point losses in their two previous games... and, oh yeah, most of their fan base has been calling for Bill Belichick’s head all season.

When you pull back and look at the bigger sample size, it’s clear this is a matchup between probably the best offense in the league against easily one of the worst.

Miami is first in the league in yards per play — by a wide margin — while the Patriots are 27th. While it might be true the Dolphins can’t hang with good teams, it can’t be denied that they destroy bad ones... and make no mistake about it, the Patriots are a bad team.

Miami handled the Patriots fairly easily in that Week 2 matchup, thanks to jumping out to a 17-3 halftime lead. They had 101 more yards in the game, and the offensive line protected Tua Tagovailoa (sacked just once). Keeping Tua clean will be the key to victory for the Dolphins and I think they’ll be able to keep him upright.

While they've done an average job of pressuring quarterbacks, the Patriots are near the bottom of the league with just 13 sacks. Miami’s offense has struggled against the upper-tier pass rushes of the Eagles and Bills (sacked a combined seven times) but was sacked just three times in the other five games (5-0 SU).

Miami’s defense definitely has some weaknesses, but can the Patriots even exploit those? New England has scored 20+ points just once this season. They’re 26th in yards per rush attempt and are struggling to extend drives as they rank 23rd in third down conversion rate.

Perhaps New England’s biggest issue this season is falling into significant holes in the first half and their offense simply isn’t good enough to play catchup. They were down 14 at half to Miami in Week 2, 25 at half to Dallas, 21 to New Orleans, and even 10 to the Raiders.

The stats certainly point to a similar pattern playing out in this game as the Dolphins lead the NFL in first-half points at 19.1 while the Patriots rank 29th at just 6.6.

These numbers are even more eye-opening when looking at home/away splits, as the Dolphins average 24.3 first-half points at home, while New England is at 5.3 on the road.

My best bet: Dolphins first half -5.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Patriots vs Dolphins same-game parlay

Dolphins first half -5.5 (-112)

Dolphins to score longest touchdown (-170)

+200 at DraftKings

Let’s continue to build around that first-half bet by adding in a bet to support the most explosive offense in the football.

In terms of big-play ability, it’s not close. Miami is fourth in passing plays of 20+ yards, New England is 25th. The Dolphins are first in passing plays of 40+ yards with seven, New England is tied with a bunch of other teams near the bottom of the league with two.

In terms of explosive runs, the Patriots are one of six teams with one or fewer rushing plays of 20+, while the Dolphins have 13 which includes a 43-yard touchdown run by Raheem Mostert in their Week 2 matchup.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Patriots vs Dolphins spread and Over/Under analysis

Despite Miami being the biggest favorite of the week, I think this spread should be a few points higher than 9.5.

The Dolphins hosted two other bottom feeders in the Giants and Panthers this season and covered as a 12.5-point and 14-point favorite in those games. Is New England really three points better than the Giants and 4.5 points better than the Panthers? I don’t think so.

They also don’t make a habit of playing down to the competition on their home field. They’ve gone an impressive 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 games as a home favorite. As a favorite of more than a touchdown within this trend, they’re 5-1 ATS while they’ve also covered in six straight against the Patriots.

As for this total of 47, these teams have been on different ends of the spectrum as it pertains to scoring patterns in their games. Dolphins games have had an average combined score of 61 points, while the Patriots games are at 39.7.

Miami will get their points, so this should come down to whether New England can find the endzone, which isn’t promising. I’d lean towards the Under as I doubt the Patriots can top 20 points.

Patriots vs Dolphins betting trend to know

The Dolphins are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 games as a home favorite. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Dolphins.

Patriots vs Dolphins game info

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