After two joint practices this week, the New England Patriots and Las Vegas Raiders will cap off their preseason with a Friday night showdown at Allegiant Stadium.
Starters are not expected to get much run and with Bill Belichick knowing Josh McDaniels and Jarrett Stidham well, it will be tough for the Patriots not to be prepared.
Find out where my best bet lies in my NFL picks and predictions for Patriots vs. Raiders.
Patriots vs Raiders odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Raiders opened as slight 1-point favorites and have moved as much as -1.5. The total opened at a modest 37 points and has moved slightly to 37.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Patriots vs Raiders predictions
Predictions made on 8/25/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Patriots vs Raiders game info
• Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
• Date: Friday, August 26, 2022
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV: NFL Network
Patriots at Raiders betting preview
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Betting trend to know
The Patriots are 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings.. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Raiders.
Patriots vs Raiders picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
To say the New England Patriots know the Las Vegas offense is an understatement. New Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels spent 18 years under Bill Belichick — most of that running an offense he's implementing this offseason.
It’s not just Belichick that knows his offense, but many of the New England players are also familiar with it. It was evident during joint practices this week between the two clubs.
"We didn't have noise yesterday, so we're calling out some things in the two-minute offense, and their whole sideline's yelling what it is,” McDaniels told Rachel Gossen this week. “I thought that was funny. We didn't have much success with it," McDaniels jokingly added.
I know there will be some noise at Allegiant Stadium Friday night but New England has a real advantage here. They also have two joint practices worth of tape to shut down a Las Vegas offense that failed to finish off drives versus the Miami ones last week. The home side also lost backup quarterback Nick Mullens who was traded to Minnesota this week.
That means former Patriot Jarrett Stidham will get the longer leash Friday with Derek Carr expected to get a short run if any snaps after getting zero reps so far in the preseason.
Stidham was drafted by Belichick and the New England coach knows the backup QB very well. Belichick is just a master at outthinking his opponents and he could be playing 4-D chess with Stidham and McDaniels Friday night.
If Vegas’ No. 3 rookie QB Chase Garbers sees plenty of late action, the favor will certainly be with the visitors and Bailey Zappe (378 passing yards in the preseason) who could take the majority of the snaps.
Prediction: Patriots +1.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Over/Under analysis
With both teams beating up on each other in a pair of joint practices this week, the familiarity factor between McDaniels’ team and Belichick’s squad is very high. Both teams went into the practices having a good grasp on each others’ offensive tendencies, but now with two days worth of tape, both defenses will be fully prepared Friday night.
Neither team is expected to run their best QBs for many snaps, if any. Carr hasn’t taken a single snap all preseason while Mac Jones saw three series last week and had a pair of three-and-outs before leading a touchdown drive. Brian Hoyer and Bailey Zappe will likely get the majority of the snaps with Belichick valuing the joint practices more than the preseason tilt.
With the ones likely not getting much run as well as two head coaches who are very aware of their opponent’s offensive tendencies, I’m leaning on the Under 37.5 but this is a small number to have much confidence on.
Prediction: Under 37.5 (-110 at bet365)
Best bet
Belichick is an egomaniac who loves to outsmart his opponent. He already showed in joint practice this week that he and his team know McDaniels’ offense and especially the signals at the line.
He also has two practices to endlessly study and deconstruct this Las Vegas offense that will be helmed by a former QB he brought up in Stidham and a rookie in Garbers.
The Raiders have also played three preseason games already and have evaluated more than other teams meaning position battles will be limited and McDaniels could roll out his fringe roster players to avoid injuries.
Pick: Patriots +1.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
