The Philadelphia Eagles’ disastrous December and subsequent early playoff exit prompted them to overhaul both sides of the ball.
Kellen Moore is the new offensive coordinator, utilizing a bevy of weapons on this Eagles attack — including offseason add RB Saquon Barkley. However, none of that matters if the defense can’t keep opponents out of the end zone.
Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and his sneaky schemes are the remedy for a stop unit that hemorrhaged points down the stretch and sunk to the bottom of the defensive rankings in 2023.
The NFL odds like those moves, pricing Philadelphia among the top teams in the NFC. It enters 2024 with a season win total of 10.5 (Over -134) and is a favorite in 13 games. For those bettors still scarred by last winter, the Eagles play four of their final five games at home.
Here’s my 2024 Philadelphia Eagles NFL betting preview and favorite NFL picks surrounding the Birds.
Philadelphia Eagles odds
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +1,500 |
| Win conference | +700 |
| Win division | -110 |
| Make playoffs | -250 |
| Over 10.5 wins | -130 |
| Under 10.5 wins | +110 |
Best futures bet: Win NFC East (-110)
The Philadelphia Eagles have swapped out coordinators each of the past two seasons, and Moore and Fangio offer more complex systems than their predecessors. There will be growing pains on both sides, but Philadelphia’s talent-rich roster numbs those aches.
The Eagles will once again run neck-and-neck with Dallas in the NFC East after gift wrapping the division crown for the Cowboys last December. Philly is facing a softer strength of schedule than its rival (T-21 vs. T-12) this time around and is set up to finish strong with four home games in the final five weeks — headlined by a “division decider” in the Linc vs. the Boys in Week 17.
Philadelphia Eagles at a glance: D needs to fly for the O to run
Jalen Hurts is learning a new playbook under Moore after running the remains of Shane Steichen’s schemes, yet the strength of that offense continues to be the ground and pound. If the Eagles' defense keeps giving up big points, however, the run game goes out the window.
Fangio’s last four defenses (Miami 2023, Denver 2019-2021) have ranked middle of the road in EPA allowed per play. Sooooo...
What will win bets: Run game
The Eagles are at their best when the run game gets going. Philadelphia lured Saquon Barkley away from the Giants, giving it a home run hitter on handoffs and short passes.
Despite the retirement of Jason Kelce, the offensive line remains elite. That blocking has plowed the road for the best success rate per handoff over the last three seasons.
Moore will use Barkley and Hurts to keep defenses guessing, and just when they sell out to stop the run, he’ll call something over the top to A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith.
The defense also benefits from the Eagles’ establishing the run, as it chews up clock and forces foes into pass-heavy playbooks in order to catch up.
What will lose bets: Passing defense
Philadelphia has played a passive two-high safety scheme the last couple of seasons, guarding against the big play and leaning on its vaunted defensive front to get pressure. When that pressure doesn’t come — like the 27-sack decline in 2023 — shit goes sideways.
Philly was picked apart by opposing passers (28th in EPA allowed per dropback) and gave up the second most passing touchdowns.
Fangio is also less aggressive in his approach but is renowned for disguising his coverage, so the Eagles won’t tip their pitch like last year.
Unfortunately, the Philadelphia secondary is either showing its age (Darius Slay, James Bradberry) or wet behind the ears (drafted CBs with first two picks). A swap at coordinator may not be enough.
Philadelphia Eagles schedule + spot bet: Road runners
The 2024 schedule starts with a trip to Brazil to play Green Bay and has the Eagles living out of a suitcase in eight of their opening 12 games.
Philadelphia is 18-8 straight up but just 11-14-1 against the spread away from Lincoln Financial Field under head coach Nick Sirianni. Look-ahead lines have Philly as a fave in five of nine away games, a role that’s produced a lame 7-10-1 ATS mark the past three years.
Luckily, that road-heavy start means a home-friendly finish. Unlike 2023’s nosedive, when the Eagles played three of the final five on the road, the 2024 regular season closes with four of the last five games in the Linc. Philadelphia is giving the points in all eight homestands this year, boasting a 16-3 SU and 11-6-2 ATS count as home chalk since 2021.
| Week | Date | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Friday, September 6 | vs. Green Bay |
| 2 | Monday, September 16 | vs. Atlanta |
| 3 | Sunday, September 22 | @ New Orleans |
| 4 | Sunday, September 29 | @ Tampa Bay |
| 5 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 6 | Sunday, October 13 | vs. Cleveland |
| 7 | Sunday, October 20 | @ New York Giants |
| 8 | Sunday, October 27 | @ Cincinnati |
| 9 | Sunday, November 3 | vs. Jacksonville |
| 10 | Sunday, November 10 | @ Dallas |
| 11 | Thursday, November 14 | vs. Washington |
| 12 | Sunday, November 24 | @ LA Rams |
| 13 | Sunday, December 1 | @ Baltimore |
| 14 | Sunday, December 8 | vs. Carolina |
| 15 | Sunday, December 15 | vs. Pittsburgh |
| 16 | Sunday, December 22 | @ Washington |
| 17 | Sunday, December 29 | vs. Dallas |
| 18 | Sunday, January 5 | vs. New York Giants |
Spot bet: Week 13 @ Baltimore (+3.5, 46.5)
That grueling 12-game stretch mentioned above closes with a non-conference clash at Baltimore in Week 13. This stop in Charm City is the Eagles’ second straight road game and third roadie in four weeks. In fact, this run-in with the Ravens is Philadelphia’s fifth away game in seven weeks. I hope they're stacking those frequent flyer miles.
It’s one of only four games in which the Eagles are underdogs this season, with the team owning a 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS count when getting the points under Sirianni.
Philadelphia has held up against AFC opponents, however, with an 11-4 SU record and 9-6 ATS mark in non-conference games since 2021.
Not bailin’ on Jalen
| Market | |
|---|---|
| To win MVP | +1,500 |
| To win OPOY | +4,500 |
| To lead NFL in pass TD | +2,500 |
| To lead NFL in rush yards | +15,000 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 22.5 pass TD | +125 |
| Under 22.5 pass TD | -150 |
| 25+ pass TD | +190 |
| 13+ rush TD | +380 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 3,600.5 pass yards | +110 |
| Under 3,600.5 pass yards | -130 |
| 4,000+ pass yards | +300 |
| Over 550.5 rush yards | -110 |
| Under 550.5 rush yards | -110 |
| 1,000+ rush yards | +850 |
Best prop: Over 9.5 rushing touchdowns (-105)
The addition of Saquon Barkley gives the Eagles another red-zone threat, but until the league finally cracks down on the “Tush Push”, the “Brotherly Shove” is the greatest goal-line play in the history of the sport.
Hurts has scored 10 or more rushing touchdowns in each of the past three seasons, including 15 in 2023. Kellen Moore isn’t going to take away those red-zone touches either, and player projections call for 11+ rushing TDs from Hurts this coming season.
Philadelphia Eagles trend: Divisional road games
Divisional games are always tough. And even with the talent gap between the Eagles and NFC East rivals like New York and Washington, Philly seems to find a way to slip up when visiting its divisional brethren.
Philadelphia went 1-2 SU and 0-2-1 ATS in its three divisional road games in 2023, perpetuating a piss-poor return for sports bettors in recent years. The Eagles are just 4-5 SU and 2-6-1 ATS in NFC East roadies under Sirianni and a collective 6-9 SU and 4-10-1 ATS in divisional road stops since 2019.
Philadelphia Eagles' Divisional Road Games:
- Week 7 @ N.Y. Giants (-4.5)
- Week 10 @ Dallas (+2)
- Week 16 @ Washington (-3)
Not intended for use in MA.
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