NFL Underdogs: NFL Picks, and Predictions Week 1

A new NFL season and another year of NFL Underdogs picks brings with them some “first day of school” jitters.

I’ll be honest, even after almost two decades of breaking down the NFL odds for Covers.com, I still get nervous when it comes to Week 1.

Along with sweating my hard-earned coin on my weekly free NFL picks, I feel added pressure to prove to readers old and new that I know what I’m talking about. Much like the first day of school, you want to make a good impression in Week 1.

The 2023 NFL season, however, hits a little different than past Septembers.

The rapid growth of sports betting has brought with it more and more media types peddling picks and predictions, clogging up the hallways with deafening noise and overwhelming anyone new to the wagering space.

Week 1 of the NFL season doesn't just feel like any old first day of school. This year feels like the first day of high school.

You’ve got some shady guy by the bleachers trying to DM you his “80% winning system” while the math club nerds are all wound up about their “advanced algorithms”. There’s a cute girl slinging a sign-up sheet for intermural “bet bonuses” and the jocks are talking tough about this “can’t-miss trend” and pressuring you to try out for something called the “SGP” team.

All those freshmen anxieties are there for the NFL season openers: Who’s coming back? Who’s gone? Who’s that new kid? And who’s going to bully my bankroll or be its best friend?

Week 1 carries equal parts excitement and abject terror but, just like school, it gets a little easier to stomach every week. And hey, you’ve got me sitting right next to you in class each and every Sunday, and I don't mind if you cheat off my test. We’ll get through this together.

Let’s lace up our fresh new kicks, stuff our backpacks with plenty of points, and ace this Week 1 exam in NFL Underdog Betting 101. School is back in session.

Last season: 27-30 ATS

Last five years: 153-134-1 ATS

NFL picks against the spread for Week 1

• Steelers +2.5
• Dolphins +3
• Jets +2.5

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) pick

As a betting rule of thumb, you have to kick the tires on the Steelers whenever they’re getting points. Especially when they’re getting the points at home, like they are against San Francisco in Week 1.

Under Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is a 64% blind winner against the spread as an underdog since 2007. Make them home pups, and the Steelers are 13-8 SU and 14-4-3 ATS in that span – a 74% ATS clip.

Kick. Kick.

Pittsburgh is coming off a positive preseason and hinted at how good this team could be at the end of last year, once T.J. Watt got healthy for the home stretch.

That trademark Pittsburgh defense came to play in the final seven games, and then-rookie QB Kenny Pickett started swapping out interceptions for touchdowns. The Steelers won six of those seven outings, pushed for the playoffs and, most importantly, went 6-1 ATS.

Tomlin’s team is looking to pick up where it left off in 2023.

The stop unit is expected to rank among the elite, most notably for its ability to flip games upside down with its potent pass rush and talent for takeaways. Offensively, Pickett is coming off a near-perfect preseason in which the Steelers' scoring attack looked damn good.

Those results were against exhibition defenses, and San Francisco’s top-tier unit is a tough test out of the gates. However, much like Pittsburgh’s pass rush going to pot when Watt was out, the 49ers could have a hole in their gameplan with edge Nick Bosa potential sitting out Week 1 due to a contract dispute.

Mix in the possible absence of standout TE George Kittle and the validity of second-year Cinderella QB Brock Purdy on the road against the Terrible Towels, and I’m not only kicking the tires on the Steelers, I’m jumping in and going for a ride in Week 1.

PICK: Steelers +2.5 (-110 at Caesars)

Miami Dolphins (+3) at Los Angeles Chargers pick

If you read my NFL betting preview on the Dolphins, you’ll know I’m big on the hire of Vic Fangio as the new defensive coordinator in Miami.

He’s the perfect pairing alongside quirky head coach Mike McDaniel, and it gives this Dolphins’ defense an identity after operating in a no man’s land between former head coach Brian Flores’ aggressive schemes and whatever the Fins tried to do last season (24th in EPA allowed).

Fangio’s zone-heavy defense immediately stops the bleeding of big plays that plagued Miami last year, and that should work well in Week 1 against another unit undergoing a swap in coordinator and philosophy.

The Chargers made a change at offensive coordinator, dumping the dink-and-dunk approach of Joe Lombardi for Kellen Moore, who promises to push the ball downfield. That’s a pivot for QB Justin Herbert, who finished second in passing yards despite an average of only 6.8 yards per attempt in 2022.

Los Angeles didn’t have great success against Fangio’s defense during his time in Denver (2019-2021), with the Chargers going 2-4 SU and ATS in six meetings. Those contests spanned three different OC’s for the Bolts, who were held to 20 points or less in four of those games. With Herbert at the wheel, the Bolts were 2-2 SU and ATS in those games with the QB putting in up-and-down efforts. 

Stingy results from Fangio’s guys would be an about-face for the Fins, who allowed 432 total yards in a 23-17 loss at L.A. in Week 14 last year. Miami was a 3-point road favorite in that game thanks to an injury-thinned L.A. defense (that didn't play like it), but now gets +2.5 in what should be a sensational opener.

Tua Tagovailoa was nursing a bum ankle in that last matchup with Los Angeles, which was also Miami’s second straight road game out West and a letdown spot for the Fins after playing McDaniel’s former team, the 49ers, the week before.

Miami packs more punch than the 219 total yards it did versus the Chargers last year, with the Dolphins expected to be among the most dangerous offensive attacks in the land.

They come to SoFi as healthy as we’ve seen in a long time and take to the fast indoor surface in Inglewood with a blistering skill group that would give most college track teams a run for their money. That speed and up-tempo approach will test the game shape of the Chargers' defense in Week 1.

PICK: Dolphins +3 (-110 at FanDuel)

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+2.5) pick

The Bills were enjoying the post-Brady era in the AFC East, losing just three divisional games since Tom Terrific took his talents to Tampa in 2020. And then Aaron Rodgers had to come along and cock it all up.

Rodgers’ jump to the Jets has placed another Future Hall of Fame quarterback in the way of Buffalo’s perilous path to the Super Bowl, a route that has narrowed in 2023.

Not only are New York and Miami threatening for the division crown, but the Bills had a tumultuous offseason, headlined by the departure of defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. That unit now falls on the plate of head coach Sean McDermott.

Buffalo has built its recent defensive rep on the backs of some pop-gun offenses and then buckled against top-tier scoring attacks, as evidenced by the 58 total points allowed in the playoffs.

The Bills were also roughed up by the likes of Detroit, Minnesota, and Miami in the home stretch of 2022, and enter this season amid that coaching transition with notable holes at linebacker (Tremaine Edmunds gone, Von Miller PUP).

That begs the question: are the Jets a top-tier offense with Rodgers under center?

Considering the upgrade at QB and the surplus of skill talent around a revitalized Rodgers, I think they can be. The ceiling is very high for New York in 2023. Even if Rodgers & Co. are slightly above average, the Jets will be one of the better two-way teams in the NFL, with a defense projected to place Top 5 when the smoke clears.

As of this writing, the betting public doesn’t agree with me.

Call it “Hard Knocks” hate but according to bookmakers, 75% of ticket count and 81% of the Monday Night Football money is fading New York at home in Week 1. This one-sided play has pushed this opening spread from as short as a pick’em to Jets +2.5 during the offseason.

If you’ve been betting for more than a day, you know public opinion is worth about as much as a damp box of No. 12 Green Bay jerseys.

I’ve actually tracked the most popular picks for each week of the NFL season using our Covers Consensus numbers, and those teams garnering 60% or more of the bet count are a collective 155-196-3 ATS over the past three years – just 44% against the closing spread – including a 50-62-1 ATS record in 2022.

As of Tuesday afternoon, Buffalo is bringing in 65% of the picks in Week 1.

I’d love to get this spread at a field goal, which could show up considering the vig on Bills -2.5 is climbing, and those bet counts could push it over the edge come Monday night. For the sake of deadlines, though, I’m taking the +2.5 with Gang Green in the Week 1 finale.

PICK: Jets +2.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
Also see Jason's full Bills vs. Jets picks and predictions

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