NFL Week 10 Picks and Predictions: Underdogs Ready To Shine Under Bright Lights

NFL Week 10 odds ring in the second half of the 2023 season.

If this were a movie (and we all know the NFL is scripted, right?), this would be the point at which all that storytelling and character development through the first nine weeks gets flipped on its ear by some crucial conflict that sets the stage for Act 2.

If the NFL odds were “The Dark Knight”, Batman would have just thrown the Joker in jail after that crazy semi truck chase.

If Week 10 was “Titanic”, Jack and Rose would have just fogged up the windows in the back of that old-timey car.

And if this point in the schedule was “The Empire Strikes Back”, Han would be dapping up Lando on the landing platform in Cloud City.

Then shit hits the fan.

Darth Vader invites you to dinner. The Titanic tries to truck an iceberg. And the Joker blows up Batman’s girlfriend. All of which made for a sensational second half.

What do the final eight weeks of the schedule have in store for my weekly NFL picks and predictions?

Here...we... go...

Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 15-12 ATS

NFL Week 10 picks and predictions

• Chargers (+3)
• Titans (+1.5)
• Texans (+7)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Chargers (+3) pick

The Los Angeles Chargers are getting a field goal from the bookies, hosting everyone’s favorites ATS bet: the Detroit Lions.

According to our Covers Consensus stats, 62% of picks are laying the points with the Lions in L.A. this Sunday. But while there’s a lot to like about Detroit and its 6-2 ATS record, I’m cautious of the validity of Dan Campbell’s crew.

The Lions’ biggest win of the season was taking down a short-handed Chiefs team in Week 1 and since then Detroit has roughed up the likes of Atlanta, Green Bay, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Las Vegas. None of those teams have a winning record and are a combined 15-27 SU on the year.

The Bolts sit on the fence at 4-4 SU but are building momentum with two straight wins – albeit against the Bears and Jets. We’re seeing notable improvements from Los Angeles in areas in which it struggled mightily early in the schedule.

The Chargers offense has posted 30 and 27 points the past two games against sound stop units, going 4/4 inside the red zone and ranking No. 2 in RZ touchdown percentage on the season. Detroit puts out the welcome mat for opponents inside its own 20-yard line, allowing the seventh highest TD% in the league.

Justin Herbert is a step up in QB quality compared to most of the Lions’ opposition, puffing up their defensive stats against wet-noodle arms like Baker Mayfield, Bryce Young, Jordan Love, Desmond Ridder, and Jimmy Garoppolo.

We’ve witnessed Detroit get cooked by top-tier passers like Lamar Jackson and Geno Smith, who each went for 320-plus yards and five combined touchdowns. And had Patrick Mahomes had Travis Kelce and not a group of butter-fingered ball catchers, he would have done more damage to Detroit as well.

Defensively, the Bolts’ pass rush is finally healthy and hunting rival quarterbacks, picking up eight of its total 31 sacks on Monday night. With guys like Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, and rookie Tuli Tuipulotu firing on all cylinders, the Chargers won’t give Jared Goff much time to pick apart a softer L.A. secondary.

Goff has been under pressure at the 14th highest rate among qualified QBs and while he hasn’t been sacked much (just 15 times), he sits 11th in QB hurries and fifth in QB hits. Goff was sacked five times by the Ravens’ vaunted pass rush in Week 7.

My NFL power ratings produced a spread of Chargers +1.15 and even padding for the Lions’ rest advantage, I still see value in an improving L.A. side – especially with public sentiment driving Detroit to a field goal fave.

PICK: Los Angeles Chargers +3  (-110 at BetMGM)

Tennessee Titans (+1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers pick

Week 10’s trip to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers feels like a tipping point for the Tennessee Titans, coming off a mini-bye following last week’s loss on Thursday night. Despite a losing record, there are plenty of positives bubbling up for the Titans.

For one, they’ve outgained four of their last five opponents yet are just 2-3 SU in that span. Another bright spot, rookie Will Levis got the vote of confidence from the franchise, and was named the team’s starting QB from here out.

Levis is giving the Titans more teeth in the passing attack than the expired arm of Ryan Tannehill. Levis has passed for 500 total yards, five touchdowns and one interception in his two starts and faces a Buccaneers defense shriveling in the Florida sun.

Tampa Bay sits dead last in EPA allowed per dropback since Week 6 and was just embarrassed by another rookie – C.J. Stroud – in Week 9, bleeding 470 yards through the air. The Bucs have allowed a success rate of 54.7% per passing play in that four-game span (highest in the league) and could be without top corner Jamel Dean, who’s in concussion protocol.

The Buccaneers have been beaten by the long bomb, giving up the seventh most air yards and watched Houston hit nine passes of 20 or more yards last week. Levis has a big arm and is connecting with stud WR DeAndre Hopkins on those deep shots, ranking No. 3 in air yards the past two weeks.

This spread is hovering just above a pick’em at many shops and could close with Tennessee as a road favorite if Dean is ruled out. My power ratings listed the Titans as -1.39 road faves before adjusting that up for the mini bye or the Bucs’ defensive injuries.

PICK: Tennessee Titans (+1.5 at FanDuel)

Houston Texans (+7) at Cincinnati Bengals pick

If you read my weekly NFL spot bets article, you’ll see that the Cincinnati Bengals are in a sticky situational squeeze in Week 10.

The Bengals are battling both a letdown and look-ahead spot when hosting the Houston Texans, coming down off a huge win over Buffalo in Week 9 and looking past the Texans to a short-week showdown with the rival Ravens next Thursday.

This spread was as big as Houston +8.5 on the opening line and has dropped as many as two points, sitting below the key number of a touchdown at many books as of Wednesday afternoon.

Helping drive this line down is an injury to Cincy WR Ja’Marr Chase, who is listed as questionable with a bad back. And with Baltimore waiting next Thursday for a vital AFC North showdown, the Bengals could play it safe with their star receiver.

Cincinnati could also look to rest its starters in the second half, should it jump out to an early lead. That narrative opens up the backdoor for the Texans as sizable underdogs. Houston has what it takes to slip through the doggie dog in Week 10.

The Texans have kept pace with their competition, regardless of quality, with their last four games decided by one score and three of those contests coming down to three points or less. Houston doesn’t quit under fiery new head coach DeMeco Ryans, fighting to the finish.

The Texans rank among the best second-half attacks in the NFL entering Week 10. Houston averages almost 12 points in the final two frames and sits No. 5 in EPA per play in the second half. Shrink that to the fourth quarter and Houston is No. 2 in that advanced metric and scoring eight points in the final 15 minutes.

I missed the boat on the biggest spread, but I’ll snatch up the remaining +7 with the feisty visitor and the Bengals more focused on Baltimore next Thursday. 

PICK: Houston Texans +7 (-115 at BetMGM)

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