We’re so close to Thanksgiving, you can almost smell the turkey and feel the sting of mom’s passive-aggressive judgments on your life choices.
And speaking of questionable choices, my NFL Underdogs picks and predictions came up lame last week. Woof.
That really puts the pressure on, with the annual holiday marking the home stretch of the NFL season: a starting gun for teams in the postseason race and an “Old Yeller” behind-the-shed BANG for those clubs not in contention.
But before that benchmark in mixed motivations, Week 11 serves as the last gasp for glory for many teams — plenty of which find themselves installed as NFL betting underdogs.
I dig through that pile of points, along with some winter weather, for my three favorite free NFL underdogs picks this weekend.
(Editor's Note: These picks were made prior to Thursday afternoon's news that Browns-Bills would be played in Detroit.)
NFL picks against the spread for Week 11
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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New York Jets (+3.5) at New England Patriots pick
With the Browns-Bills game being moved to Detroit due to the impending snowstorm in Buffalo this weekend, my wager on Cleveland +9 was cancelled faster than Kanye West. And with the Bills now hitting the fast indoor track in Motown, I don’t want anything to do with the re-opened odds of Browns +7.5.
That means we go back to the drawing board for our third NFL Underdogs selection in Week 11. The Jets and Patriots mix it up for the second time in three games (with a bye for both teams last week), with New York moving from +5 to as low as +3 at some books.
Gang Green lost 22-17 at home to New England in Week 8, despite outgaining the Pats by 93 yards and picking up 6.7 yards per play against one of the stingiest defenses in the AFC. Three interceptions from QB Zach Wilson were the ultimate decider and clouded what was Wilson’s biggest passing output of his short career (355 yards).
The Jets' defense did a solid job against New England as well, in spite of being on the field for 35:34. New York limited the Pats to 3.8 yards per play, checked them to 1-for-3 success inside the red zone, and forced New England to settle for five field goals. Overall, this New York defense ranks among the elite in terms of advanced metrics, sitting No. 6 in DVOA at Football Outsiders and No. 8 in EPA allowed per play so far in 2022.
Shrink that to the past five outings, and the Jets are No. 2 in that measurement — just behind New England at No. 1. The J-E-T-S don’t have the best track record when it comes to visiting Bill Belichick (6-18 SU, 12-11-1 ATS since 2000), but this 2022 team has already gone into some of the more historically tougher venues in the NFL and came away with wins at Pittsburgh, Green Bay, and the thin air of Denver.
Robert Salah may not add Gillette Stadium to the list, but he can keep his team within a field goal.
PICK: Jets +3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) pick
This game was the first bet I made in Week 11, taking the opener of Minnesota +2.5 on Sunday night. It was very much a grab for the best of the number, knowing that the contrasting public perception of these two teams would shrink this spread by Sunday.
I’ll admit, I was skeptical of Minnesota as the wins started stacking up. But the Vikings have extended their streak to seven games, and those last three wins — Arizona, Washington, and Buffalo — have made me a believer.
As for Dallas, this once-dangerous defense has been showing cracks in the foundation for the past four games. Even the Cowboys’ 24-6 win over Detroit could have been much worse if not for the Lions leaving points on the table with red-zone blunders and turnovers. Dallas has gone from No. 4 in EPA allowed in the opening five games to No. 13 since Week 6.
This Minnesota offense shows up at a bad time for Big D. The Vikings have scored a combined 84 points in their last three outings, vs. three defenses ranked Top 15 in EPA per play. Justin Jefferson is the best receiver in the game and RB Dalvin Cook is exactly the type of talent to give this Dallas defense a headache, as the Cowboys sit 24th in EPA allowed per handoff in those past four outings.
Sure, the letdown spot looms large in the Land of Lakes after the Vikes’ thrilling OT win at Buffalo last week. But this Minnesota team is not only playing great two-way football, it’s also doing the little things that help win games and, more importantly, cover spreads.
The Vikings are generating turnovers (18 takeaways ranking No. 2) while not giving away the ball (10 giveaways rank tied for No. 8), nor are they handing over any bonus yards with careless penalties (47 penalties against ranks No. 4). The Cowboys, on the other hand, are the fifth most flagged team in the league.
Get ready for plenty of Prince's "Let's Go Crazy" when the Vikings light it up inside U.S. Bank Stadium this Sunday.
PICK: Vikings +1.5 (-110 at bet365)
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5) pick
It will be steely cold in the Steel City Sunday, with temperatures feeling like 20 degrees thanks to wind gusts up to 30 mph at Acrisure Stadium.
Perfect Pittsburgh football weather.
The name on the stadium might be different — hold the ketchup — but the Steelers remain a tough task on their own field. Pittsburgh is 2-2 SU and 2-1-1 ATS as a host this season, with a +1.3 average scoring margin in those home games compared to a -14.4 margin on the road.
Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are a blind 55% ATS winner at home, including a remarkable 15-3-3 ATS record as a rare home pup. And when it comes to this AFC North rivalry with Cincinnati, Tomlin’s team is 10-5 ATS vs. the Bengals in Pittsburgh since 2007.
But trends are only as good as the teams taking the field that week. And with superstar LB T.J. Watt back in the mix, at least the defensive side of this Steelers team is looking pretty good.
Pittsburgh could have ball-hawking safety Minkah Fitzpatrick back to battle the Bengals after undergoing an appendectomy last week and if the forecasted winds hold up, those strong gusts could lend an assist in slowing down Joe Burrow and Cincy’s downfield attack.
As for the Pittsburgh offense, there’s a spark with this ground game over the past three outings. The Steelers sat 26th in EPA per handoff in the opening seven weeks of play but have since upped that advanced metric to No. 6 since Week 7, including a monster 217-yard day on the ground against the Saints’ No.1 rank run stop.
Tomlin tips his hat to the Steelers’ offensive line for that turnaround and that unit will continue to have success vs. a Cincinnati defense getting pushed around on the ground. The Bengals enter Week 11 at No. 26 in EPA allowed per handoff and sit 31st in ESPN’s run-stop win rate (47%). The defensive line continues to play without DT Josh Tupou and D.J. Reader is attempting to come back from a MCL sprain.
It all adds up to another grinder of a game in the AFC North. The Steelers wouldn’t have it any other way. This line opened as high as Bengals -5 but has since slimmed to as low as -4 at some books.
PICK: Steelers +4.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Last week: 1-2 (-1.09 units) (Risking 1 unit per play)
Season: 12-18 (-7.4 units) (Risking 1 unit per play)
