The final regular season week of NFL betting picks and predictions is always a wild one, as handicappers scour the news wires for any inclination of a team’s Week 18 plans — be it a club resting starters, pushing for a postseason spot, or wrapping up a losing campaign.
And, for what it’s worth, the last week of the schedule has gone to the dogs in recent years.
Since 2015, point-spread underdog picks are 59-49-4 ATS in Week 17/18, covering at a near 55% clip. That includes a 27-19-2 ATS mark for dogs in those finales since 2019 (58.7%) and a 10-6 ATS count for point spread pups in the inaugural Week 18 last season.
I’m hoping underdogs keep their bite in this weekend’s closing contests as I’ve been trying to get right after a down year for my weekly NFL picks and predictions. December started off hot with a 7-2 ATS run but has been stuck in neutral for the past three weeks (3-3-1 ATS).
Here are my three favorite NFL Underdogs picks and predictions for Week 18.
NFL picks against the spread for Week 18
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Tennessee Titans (+6.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars pick
This is what Week 18 is all about people!
The AFC South title and the postseason pass that comes along with the division crown is up for grabs when the Jaguars host the Titans on primetime Saturday night. Bookies have installed Tennessee as a 6.5-point pup, but this line could drop with the +6.5 carrying a hefty price tag.
The Titans have been plagued by injuries on both sides of the ball in the second half of the schedule, which is why they find themselves in this sudden death showdown Saturday. Tennessee, which has lost six straight games, did catch a break from the schedule makers, however.
The Titans took the field with a skeleton crew last Thursday — a 27-13 loss to Dallas at home — but have now enjoyed a mini bye and could have several key bodies coming back for Week 18.
Tennessee had all but one of the 10 players initially listed on the injury report miss practice entirely this week, none more important than star RB Derrick Henry who missed Week 17 with a hip injury.
No team has bore the brunt of Henry’s fury like Jacksonville. The bruising back rushed for 121 yards and added 34 yards receiving in a Week 14 loss to the Jaguars, and has amassed 1,264 yards rushing on 5.5 yards per carry along with 15 rushing touchdowns in a dozen career contests with the Jags — an average of 105.3 yards per game.
That dominance makes life much easier on quarterback Joshua Dobbs, who gets the start in Week 18 after a solid showing against the Cowboys’ dangerous defense last Thursday. Dobbs amassed 232 yards through the air and looked far more comfortable than rookie Malik Willis and not too far off the mark of veteran Ryan Tannehill, who was regressing badly this season.
Jacksonville is playing well and honestly, I hope it gets into the playoffs. The Jaguars' defense has been stellar during this current hot streak, but just so happens to be going up against their kryptonite in King Henry.
This spread is too much in a win-and-in divisional showdown against a Titans team that’s getting healthy on both sides of the ball with added rest. And let’s not forget Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel, who’s 24-16-1 ATS as an underdog (60%) during his tenure in the Music City, including a 9-4 ATS mark when getting six or more points from the bookies.
PICK: Titans +6.5 (-110 at bet365)
New York Jets (+1) at Miami Dolphins pick
Miami opened as big as a 4-point home favorite for Week 18, but with the quarterback situation looking dire in South Beach, the market has moved toward the Jets regardless of the Dolphins’ slim postseason hopes.
Some books are at New York -1, some are at pick’em, and a small handful (including Pinnacle) are still dealing Gang Green as a pup. We’ll start there.
New York and Miami own twin five-game slides, but the Jets appear to be in better shape heading into the finale, with Mike White at QB and Robert Saleh trying to end what was a rollercoaster year on a high note.
The Jets' defense continues to be among the stingiest in the league, namely a secondary that has seen its share of quality QBs in recent weeks. New York has taken on the likes of Geno Smith, Trevor Lawrence, Jared Goff, Josh Allen, and Kirk Cousins in the last six games.
The Jets managed to check those premium passing attacks to just five total touchdowns (four of those foes rank Top 5 in passing TDs on the season) and a combined completion rate of just 61% and now face Miami QB3 Skylar Thompson, who’s a far cry from those elite arms.
New York torched a Thompson-led Dolphins squad 40-17 at home back in Week 5 when Tua Tagovailoa was out with a concussion, for the first time. Thompson was 19-for-33 for just 166 yards passing with one interception and a lost fumble. And that was his best showing of the season.
Compounding those offensive issues is the injury to standout OL Terron Armstead, who missed Week 17 and has yet to practice this week due to a mixed bag of injuries. He’s been the lynchpin for pass protection and leaves the Dolphins with a big hole on the left side of the line vs. a Jets pass rush ranked Top 10 in pressure rate and seventh in total sacks.
As for New York’s offense, it’s been bad. But so is the Fins' defense. Miami could be even worse if staples like Bradley Chubb and Xavien Howard are out of action after missing practice all week.
PICK: Jets +1 (-118 at Pinnacle)
Carolina Panthers (+3.5) at New Orleans Saints
For most teams, watching their playoff plans go up in smoke like Carolina did last week would sink them for the final game of the season. But not Steve Wilks’ guys.
The Panthers had Tampa Bay on the ropes, but some terrible coverage and a couple costly mistakes (as well as one lucky punt from the Bucs) allowed Tom Brady to orchestrate another trademark TB12 comeback.
Under the rumble of that collapse and clouded by three turnovers was a pretty solid showing from Carolina, which continues to improve on offense. The Panthers had 400 yards and were 2-for-2 in the red zone while Sam Darnold continued to make plays through the air — posting a season-high 341 passing yards and three TD throws.
Wilks has changed the vibe in Carolina ever since taking over for the fired Matt Rhule and is very much coaching for a full-time gig in 2023-24. He wasted little time telling everyone the team’s plan for Week 18, and along with Darnold, isn’t the only person on the Panthers wanting to fight to the finish.
Since Week 10, Carolina has ranked among the elite in many advanced metrics, and Darnold has been one of the most efficient QBs in the league since taking over under center in Week 12 and really has something going with WR D.J. Moore.
New Orleans opened as a 3.5-point home favorite and was bet up early to as high as +5 before buyback on the Panthers. The Saints bring a three-game winning streak into Week 18 but have picked the bones of broken teams like Cleveland and Atlanta in that span and earned a win over the Jalen Hurts-less Eagles in Week 17.
New Orleans' offense doesn’t present the same big-play threat as some of Carolina’s recent rivals, like Tampa Bay, Detroit, or Seattle. The Saints held the ball for more than 37 minutes and managed only 20 points in the win at Philadelphia, and rank out 25th in EPA per play since Week 9 — a stretch in which the team has scored more than 21 points only once.
The Panthers' points spread continues to slim, with the vig on Carolina +3.5 sitting as high as -120. We’re getting the half-point hook on this divisional underdog playing with purpose in Week 18.
PICK: Panthers +3.5 (-109 at Pinnacle)
Last week: 1-1 ATS (Bengals +2.5 voided) -0.04 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
Season: 22-26-2 ATS -4.55 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
