NFL Week 4 Picks and Predictions: Geno and the Seahawks Impress in New York

October is just about here, which means it’s time for me to brave the crawl space and dig out the Halloween decorations. It also marks the start of the great debate: What costume will my kids wear for Trick-or-Treating? 

If you’re a parent with little ones in that prime Trick-or-Treat age, you know their costume choice changes on a daily basis, similar to NFL odds. Yesterday it was Spider-Man 2099, but after a Netflix session, they want to be some crazy Anime character you’ve never heard of. Who knows what tomorrow will bring? The sharp money is on Mario Bros. 

Whatever it is, they gotta decide who they’re going to be — and fast. All the good costumes are getting snatched up and I don’t want to be explaining the plot of “Risky Business” while buttoning up my pantless 8-year-old in a dress shirt at 6:33 p.m. on October 31.

Week 4 odds of the NFL season are a similar crossroads. Teams were waiving on who they wanted to be through the first three games, and now we’ll get a much clearer idea of who they really are as October opens this Sunday. 

Will we see teams dressed up as Superman or will it be something gruesome, like the Chicago Bears? Here’s hoping my NFL picks are more “Cujo” than “Bluey” in Week 4.

NFL Week 4 picks and predictions

• Falcons +3.5
• Patriots +7
• Seahawks +1

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Falcons (+3.5) vs. Jaguars

The first international game of the NFL season is the perfect excuse to wake up early and make a big English breakfast before betting on the Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars. 

That traditional plate includes blood pudding, which could be the second nastiest thing you have to ingest considering the teams taking the field in London on Sunday morning.

Offense isn’t coming easy to either team. Atlanta can’t throw the ball and Jacksonville has been the biggest disappointment through three weeks, with this talent-rich attack ranking in the bottom third of the league.

The Falcons’ run-heavy offense, which ranks 10th in EPA per handoff, will smash into the Jaguars defense, which sits No. 3 against the run in EPA. And Jacksonville’s passing playbook, which is struggling to push the ball deep, will get shut down by an Atlanta secondary limiting foes to the seventh-lowest success rate.

It all makes for less-than-thrilling football on a Sunday morning and plenty of punts. It’s also why I’m leaning to the underdog.

Most of the markets are at a field goal for this neutral-site game but there are half-point hooks showing up at certain books, which are quickly bought up and moved back to Falcons +3. I’m grabbing one of those available +3.5 spreads in preparation for a last-second winning field goal from one of these teams.

If there’s anything the British crowd can appreciate it’s kicking. And this contest will feature plenty of it.

PICK: Falcons +3.5 (-118 at 888Sport)

Patriots (+7) at Cowboys

The New England Patriots made a quiet move last week, acquiring backup QB Will Grier from the Bengals practice squad. 

Grier is the third QB on the depth chart but was front and center for head coach Bill Belichick this week, as the Patriots prepare to play the Dallas Cowboys — the team Grier spent the past two seasons and this summer’s training camp with. 

This didn’t go unnoticed by the Dallas Cowboys' new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, who’s changing his play signals ahead of this Week 4 date with New England. 

“We know Will knows where a lot of the bones are buried," Schottenheimer told the media. 

And now, so does Belichick.

New England has also been a tough second-half team so far in 2023, which is what you want when taking a pile of points with the touchdown underdog. The Patriots' offense sits 12th in EPA per play in fourth quarters and has recorded 22 of its 52 points in the final 15 minutes — 42% of its overall output.

This spread has sunk to Dallas -6.5 at many sportsbooks as of Wednesday afternoon, but you can still get New England +7 at a handful of shops.

PICK: Patriots +7 (-115 at Pointsbet)

Seahawks (+1) at Giants

According to my NFL power ratings, the Seattle Seahawks should be the favorites for Monday Night Football and it appears some sportsbooks agree. 

Seattle actually opened as a 1-point road chalk in East Rutherford, but the market moved toward the New York Giants and flipped this to New York -1.5. However, we’re seeing a shift toward the visitor and this game is out there at Seahawks -1, pick’em, and Giants -1 as of Wednesday afternoon.

In a battle of terrible defenses, I’m going to side with the better quarterback — Geno Smith. He’s powering this high-octane Seahawks offense and ranks in the Top 10 in many advanced QB metrics.

The Giants just don’t have that pop, especially with RB Saquan Barkley still sidelined. New York is 27th in EPA per play and while the Seattle defense is far from past foes like Dallas and San Francisco, the Seahawks could get bodies back on that stop unit with an extra day to heal in Week 4.

Seattle has been plagued with injuries the past two weeks but is expecting safety Jamal Adams to return as well as holding out hope for corners Tre Brown, Coby Bryant, and Riq Woolen along with DE Dre'Mont Jones. The offensive line may also return starters Charles Cross and Phil Haynes.

Those would be welcome additions to a Seattle team picking up steam after a dud of a season opener.

PICK: Seahawks +1 (-115 at Pinnacle)
Also read: Jason Logan's Seahawks vs. Giants predictions

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