NFL Week 5 Picks and Predictions: Ride the Jets in the Mile High City

Quality versus quantity.

This debate stretches to the far reaches of our lives, from work to home, and especially at the sportsbook when making our weekly NFL picks.

Case in point: I recently purchased a new garlic press. I know, exciting stuff. Stay with me though.

Before I made a move, I debated buying a quality one for $20 or grabbing a shitty one from the Dollar Store for $3 — which was why I needed a new garlic press in the first place. My old shitty $3 one broke about eight months after replacing the $3 one before that.

At work, I’m always juggling quality and quantity. I want to provide as much insight and information into the NFL odds as I can but have multiple games to cover and deadlines to meet. I lean into the heavy-hitting info I believe is best, leave out a lot, and quickly move on to the next assignment to satiate both sides of the demand.

When it comes to picking NFL underdogs, is it best to go with a quality team set as a shorter dog or grab a lesser club getting a pile of points, hoping quantity can keep the favorite at bay?

Week 5 odds tempt us with both options.

In recent years, quality has been the better bet over quantity. Since 2018, NFL underdogs of less than six points (+5.5 or lower) are covering at a 55% clip.

Dogs of +6 or higher are 52% against the spread in that same span with pups of more than a touchdown (+7.5 or higher) coming through just 51.5% of the time, which isn’t enough to turn a profit.

So far this season, underdogs of less than six are 21-21 ATS while bigger dogs (+6 or higher) are 7-9-1 ATS (44%). And those really bad teams catching double digits — and we have two in Week 5 — they’re only 1-3 ATS in 2023.

Will I choose quality over quantity with my NFL Week 5 underdog bets? Well, let’s just say my garlic press problems should be resolved for the foreseeable future. 

Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 7-5 ATS

NFL Week 5 picks and predictions

• Jaguars +5.5
• Colts +1.5
• Jets +2

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5) vs. Buffalo Bills pick

This Week 5 London showcase is worth the 9:30 a.m. ET wake-up call.

The look-ahead line set back in the summer had the Jacksonville Jaguars listed as 3-point neutral-site underdogs, and that spread was sitting at +4 before the events of Week 4.

Jacksonville got right with a 23-7 win over Atlanta in London last Sunday, flexing its defensive muscles after a bad game against Houston. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence also had his best outing of the season so far, with his receiving corps stepping up against a solid Atlanta secondary.

Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills took the Dolphins to “The Cove” in Week 4 with a 48-20 statement win that has puffed up this spread 1.5 points from the look-ahead line.

I highlighted the possible letdown looming for Buffalo off such an emotional victory in my Week 5 Spot Bets, especially when you mix in the logistics of landing in London.

The Bills are flying overnight Thursday and arriving Friday morning. They plan to stay up and push through practice on Friday to get used to the time change before the early kickoff on Sunday.

The Bills defense is also scrambling to plug a big hole in the secondary ahead of this international affair. Star corner Tre'Davious White is out for the season while safety Jordan Poyer and corner Christian Benford are limited due to injuries.

The Jaguars have been in the UK all week and running a regular practice schedule at Hanbury Manor. Not only is that great for prep and team bonding, but also for recovery and adjustments, with the Jaguars getting bodies back on the offensive line.

With left tackle Cam Robinson back from suspension, the pass protection gets a boost against the Bills’ pass rush and the ground game also gets a big shot in the arm. Buffalo has been bad at defending the run, ranking 25th in success rate against opposing rushing attacks and giving up a league-high 6.3 yards per carry.

A balanced Jaguars offense can control the ball and keep Josh Allen & Co. parked on the sideline, helping a Jacksonville defense that sits among the NFL’s elite in success rate allowed and EPA per play. The Jags have also been an opportunistic stop unit with nine takeaways, and we all know Allen can have his moments.

I’d love to get Jacksonville +6, but I’m grabbing what I can with this spread inflated due to the Bills turning heads with the win over Miami.

PICK: Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 (-102 at Pinnacle)

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (+1.5) pick

The Indianapolis Colts showed a lot of poise after falling behind big to the Rams in Week 4. Indianapolis climbed out of a 23-0 hole in the third quarter to force overtime but eventually lost 29-23 as a 1-point home pup.

Indy is back in this same spot in Week 5, getting a sprinkle of points at home against the rival Tennessee Titans.

Tennessee improved to 2-2 in Week 4, but I’m calling bullshit on that record. The Titans were gifted a win by the Chargers’ bonehead penalties in Week 2 and shook down the Bengals and a one-legged Joe Burrow at home last Sunday.

The Colts are quickly becoming a complete team. The defense, which ranks No. 11 in EPA allowed per play, overcame a soft first half versus L.A. to get Indy back into it with a solid second-half showing. Indianapolis is giving up only 3.8 yards per carry and ranks seventh in run stop win rate at ESPN.

The offense is getting back on track after Anthony Richardson’s brief hiatus and he was great in the comeback against the Rams, doing damage with both his arm and legs. The offensive line is healing up and running back Jonathan Taylor looks to be on track for a return in this AFC South rivalry.

The Titans also have the distraction of a trip to London to face Baltimore in Week 6. Since the international games restarted post-pandemic, Europe-bound teams are just 4-10-1 ATS the week before crossing the pond. 

PICK: Indianapolis Colts +1.5 (-118 at 888Sport)

New York Jets (+2) at Denver Broncos pick

The New York Jets have had this Week 5 trip to Denver circled since the summer.

This offseason, newly-named Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton called Nathaniel Hackett’s solo season in the Mile High City, “one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL”.

Hackett, who was fired after a disastrous 2022, would take the job as OC in New York and was planning on reuniting with former Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. And we all know what happened next.

Even with Zach Wilson under center now, New York isn’t letting shit slide.

Head coach Robert Saleh didn’t take kindly to Payton’s comments about Hackett and the Jets' role in "Hard Knocks" in the offseason and while he’s since downplayed the drama, you just know he’s going to use it to light a fire under his team in Week 5.

The Gang Green defense is going to dole out scoops of karma for Payton, who’s off to a rough start of his own as Denver's HC. The Broncos barely escaped with a win at Chicago last weekend, falling behind 28-7 before rallying for a 31-28 victory to avoid a 0-4 start to 2023.

The Denver defense is rotten and ranks dead last in DVOA and EPA allowed per play — the holy grail of advanced metrics. Many of those fancy stats have the Broncos forecasted for a historically bad year, in terms of touchdowns allowed and yardage against. And to make matters worse, that side of the roster is littered with injuries heading into Week 5.

Offensively, the Broncos are better than last year — which isn’t saying much — but haven’t faced any pushback from opponents, facing teams ranked 24th, 27th, 30th, and 31st in EPA allowed. The Jets have slowed many more potential attacks in KC and Buffalo, rank ninth in pressure rate, and have generated a lot of chaos with five interceptions on the season.

Wilson and the Jets offense are catching a big break when you measure the Broncos up against New York’s first four opponents: Buffalo, Dallas, New England, and Kansas City. Those defenses all rank near the top in either DVOA or EPA — or both.

Wilson was able to get something going against the Chiefs on Sunday night and should build on that against the Broncos’ stinky stop unit in Week 5.

PICK: New York Jets +2 (-110 at DraftKings)

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