NFL Week 7 Picks and Predictions: Lions Set to Make a Statement in Baltimore

The universe demands balance.

Though it may seem like I’m a Thanos sympathizer, I fully believe in the celestial scales. That cosmic balance can work in mysterious ways, whether we’re betting on NFL odds each Sunday or forking over a “missing book” fee at the local library.

After a month of turning my house upside down for a misplaced kid’s book, it was time to face the $13 music. I begrudgingly forked over the penalty fee while my children picked out more books to lose at the library last weekend.

Among those books was one that wouldn’t scan at the self-sign-out. After taking it to the librarian (yes, they still exist), she was puzzled that the book wouldn’t scan despite having all the proper barcodes. Later that day, the library called and said they had no record of the book in their system and that we could keep it. The suggested retail on the back cover: $12.99.

One book lost. One book found. Balance.

The days following this book-for-book ballet, I would watch in horror as my NFL picks for last week’s Underdogs column went a soul-sucking 0-3 ATS — a week removed from a perfect 3-0 ATS in Week 5.

Ugh. Money in. Money out. Balance.

What does the universe have in store when it comes to my best bets on NFL Week 7 odds? Let’s find out…

NFL Week 7 picks and predictions

• Lions +3
• Steelers +3.5
• Falcons +2.5

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Detroit Lions (+3) at Baltimore Ravens pick

There’s a big difference between how the betting markets view the Detroit Lions and what Detroit has actually done this season.

If you subscribe to the holy of holy advanced NFL metrics, then you hold the Lions among the league’s elite. They’re Top 10 in EPA per play and EPA allowed per play and sit No. 2 in Total DVOA at FTN.

If you’re more of a “proof is in the pudding” kind of person, Detroit is 5-1 against the spread through six weeks of football. And, for what it’s worth (and that would be a whole lot of money), the Lions are 28-12 ATS under Dan Campbell, including 20-9 ATS as underdogs since 2021.

Yet, despite the evidence that the Lions are for real, the betting markets continue to discount Detroit. 

It was a 3-point favorite in Tampa last Sunday — a game every superstitious bettor barked about being a “trap game” for the Lions. They were also short chalk on the road in Green Bay in Week 4 and a field goal fave at home to Atlanta in Week 3.

The Week 7 spread is giving Detroit a field goal in Baltimore, which isn’t too farfetched and will be a litmus test for the validity of the Lions. The Baltimore Ravens defense is right up there with the best in the NFL, yet Jared Goff and this Motown attack is the best offense Baltimore has battled. 

The Ravens faced the likes of rookies C.J. Stroud and Dorian Thompson-Robinson, a one-legged Joe Burrow, backup Gardiner Minshew, a hobbled Kenny Pickett, and Ryan Tannehill/Malik Willis in London last weekend.

Baltimore’s poise in crunch time has also been about as stable as a greased-up game of Jenga. The Ravens see their stellar stats sink to the bottom of the league in the final 15 minutes, ranking 16th in EPA allowed per play and 25th in EPA on offense. They’ve been outscored 33-28 in 4Qs heading into Week 7.

On the other hand, the Lions’ calling card for the past three seasons has been furious fourth quarters. Detroit currently ranks No. 2 in EPA per play and success rate (53%) in the closing stanza and Goff is the second-best 4Q quarterback in the land in many measurements.

PICK: Lions +3 (-110 at bet365)

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) at Los Angeles Rams pick

This spread has been turned upside down since the start of the 2023 season. 

The offseason odds had the Pittsburgh Steelers as 2.5-point road favorites in L.A., but after six weeks of results, oddsmakers are giving the Steelers as many as 3.5 points in Week 7.

I get it. The Steelers are the ugliest team with a winning record, having won those three games in weird ways. That said, this defense is as disruptive as ever and with the team coming off a bye week, I expect improvements from an offense that stumbled out of the gate in 2023.

All fingers point at second-year QB Kenny Pickett, who’s mired in a bit of a sophomore slump. He’s been terribly inaccurate to start the season, but QB coach Mike Sullivan and offensive coordinator Matt Canada are simplifying things for Pickett in Week 7.

They’re looking for him to make the easy pass and get rid of the ball much quicker rather than forcing it downfield. Pickett will also have two top targets returning from injury in wide receiver Diontae Johnson and tight end Pat Freiermuth.

As for the Los Angeles Rams, they’ll need to keep Matthew Stafford clean if they want to make good as home chalk. Los Angeles gave up three sacks to Arizona last Sunday — one of the most passive pass rushes in the NFL — and has allowed a total of 15 sacks the past four games, with the offensive line sitting 29th in pass block win rate (45%) at ESPN.

The Steelers won’t give Stafford much time in the pocket for deeper plays to develop and that chaos results in hurried mistakes. Pittsburgh has 11 total takeaways in five games this year, with five coming by the way of interceptions. 

Stafford has thrown five picks on the season already and his accuracy hasn’t been sharp through six outings. He’s below the likes of Mac Jones and Zach Wilson for on-target percentage (74.1%) and his receivers haven’t helped him out, tied for a league-high 15 drops.

PICK: Steelers +3.5 (-120 at 888sport)

Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers pick

Entering 2023, these NFC South foes were on opposite ends of the betting spectrum. 

The Atlanta Falcons were a sharp darling all summer, drawing money on their odds to make the playoffs, division futures, and the Over on their season win total. On the other hand, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were an underdog in 15 of their 17 games, according to the look-ahead lines.

The sharp sentiment for the Falcons has definitely cooled after watching Desmond Ridder run this offense the same way my 70-year-old father navigates a Zoom call. Both have resulted in frustration for all involved.

The Bucs, on the other hand, have sudden respect from the betting market. Tampa Bay was somehow just a 3-point pup to Detroit at home last Sunday and despite the 20-3 loss, are laying almost a field goal in Week 7.

I’m not buying it. 

Baker Mayfield is a ticking time bomb under center and the clock could have started last weekend, with Mayfield putting in his worst performance of the season. He’s ripe for the picking against this Atlanta defense that has done a good job bringing the heat but not necessarily scoring sacks.

The Falcons enter Week 7 third in pressure rate per dropback and sit among the top in QB hits and QB hurries, but have registered only 10 sacks so far. However, that may be enough against Mayfield, who has historically crumbled when under duress and started to show signs of cracking last Sunday.

The Tampa offense isn’t explosive enough to put distance between them and opponents, especially in first halves when the Falcons have found themselves in deep holes. Atlanta has had to battle from behind at the break in all six games, including several double-digit gaps in the fourth quarter.

And while Ridder hasn’t lived up to the hopes of sharp bettors, he’s found another gear in crunch time. He’s ranked Top 10 in many QB metrics in the fourth quarter and has a QBR of 92.3 in those final frames. 

PICK: Falcons +2.5 (-110 at bet365)

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