The countdown to Halloween is on.
As of this writing, there’s just over a week remaining before Snickers-fueled little kids come knocking at your door and Natty Light-fueled older kids are throwing eggs at your windows.
Our household takes this Halloween shit seriously. My children had their costumes picked out and wear tested well ahead of October 31. But not everyone is as keen on their costumes as my kiddos.
While I was out buying socks the other day (I lead a very exciting life), I ventured into the adjacent “Spirit Halloween” store, and let me tell you… the pickings were slim.
Want to be Wolverine or Deadpool for Halloween? Pfft, good luck. But hey, you can always be Black Adam. Remember him? Nah, me neither.
It’s an election year, so naturally, a Donald Trump costume would kill at the annual Halloween party. Oh, no Trumps left on the shelves? Instead, here’s a “Star Wars Angry Birds” Darth Vader pig costume circa 2012 in yellowed sun-bleached packaging.
Are you and the significant other planning a couples’ costume: Barbie and Ken, Taylor and Travis, Jack and Sally, maybe? Forget about it. All that’s left for you guys is off-brand Super Mario Bros. outfits dubbed “Italian Plumber Brothers”, and you just know you’re going to get a weird-ass rash from the mustache.
All this is to say, that in the world of NFL wagering, the favorites get bought up first and the underdogs… well, they’re still hanging around at 8:57 p.m. on All Hallow’s Eve. That’s especially true this year with pups going just 14-28-1 ATS (34%) the past three weeks.
Listen, not every Halloween costume is as cool as Maverick from “Top Gun”. Sometimes you get stuck going as Goose. But after a few pumpkin-spice martinis and whatever was in the punchbowl, you’re getting down like the “Great Pumpkin” and making the most of that horrible, horrible costume.
Let’s hope our Week 8 NFL picks and predictions dance like no one is watching… which is tough when you’re wearing a giant inflatable rooster costume.
Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season 11-10 ATS
NFL Week 8 picks and predictions
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Indianapolis Colts (+6) at Houston Texans
My pick: Indianapolis Colts +6
-110 at bet365
The AFC South is a bag of cats and pretty much any bet that I’ve made that involves this ass-backward division has somehow gone south through the first seven weeks.
I contemplated this phenomenon while driving the other day and thought, “Maybe you just don’t mess with the AFC South anymore?” And then I bet the Indianapolis Colts in Week 8. At least I’m not touching the Titans and all those points. Screw those guys.
As for Indianapolis, this team just keeps being competitive. The Colts have won four of their last five games and their three losses on the season have come by a combined 11 points. Injuries have come and gone, and Indy keeps coming through for bettors with a 6-1 ATS record.
Week 8 should see Indianapolis at its healthiest since the start of the season. Running back Jonathan Taylor is trending toward returning for the first time since Week 4 and the defense could have Pro Bowl DT DeForest Buckner back from the IR.
The Colts are catching six points at Houston, facing a team that beat Indy 29-27 as a 3-point road favorite in Week 1. The Texans look very different than they did in the season opener, with star receiver Nico Collins out of commission and several starters on defense tabbed with injury designations in Week 8.
Outside of rolling the dismal Patriots in Week 6 (which was a one-score game at half) and getting squashed by the Vikings in Week 3, Houston has been in tight dog fights this season with the other five games decided by six points or less – three by a field goal or shorter.
This is an important AFC South showdown and six points feels like too much of a gap, considering the Colts are on the up-and-up.
Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
My pick: Philadelphia Eagles +2.5
+100 at bet365
In a strange twist of scheduling fate, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Cincinnati Bengals have had common foes the past two weeks. Both teams beat the Cleveland Browns and New York Giants heading into this fun non-conference contest.
Truth be told, neither Philly nor Cincy looked especially strong in those victories but what we saw from the Eagles in Week 7 doesn’t bode well for Joe Burrow and the Bengals.
Philadelphia flattened the G-Men on both sides of the ball, sacking QB Daniel Jones eight times with a constant wave of pressure, and then ran up and down New York, amassing 269 rushing yards on 45 carries.
Cincinnati’s defense has been bullied on the ground, ranking 25th in run-stop win rate at ESPN and sitting 30th in EPA allowed per handoff with opposing rushers enjoying a success rate of 49.2% on each carry — worst in the NFL.
Philadelphia has taken some time to get its groove back as it pertains to its dominance with the run. But with the offensive line coming together and RB Saquan Barkley enjoying life as an Eagle, the Philadelphia ground game is No. 4 in EPA per carry heading into Week 8.
As for the Bengals pass protection, Burrow has been sacked 18 times (seventh most), including three sacks suffered against Cleveland on Sunday. Cincinnati's offensive line owns a pass block win rate that sits 21st at ESPN and FTN gives the Bengals blockers that same rating, which doesn’t take into account the injury suffered by starting tackle Orlando Brown (knee sprain).
Philadelphia’s pass rush has very much been at the core of this franchise’s success in recent years and is returning to form the past two games, with 13 total sacks versus Cleveland and New York after collecting only six total sacks in the opening four games. The Eagles are generating good pressure with just four pass rushers and only blitz on 20.5% of dropbacks.
If we look into Burrow’s soft spots, he’s great at making teams pay for bringing extra bodies but sees his PFF rating slide from 91.0 when kept clean to 67.7 under pressure. Philadelphia can get after the Bengals QB, not allowing deeper plays to develop, while also crowding the passing lanes with linebackers in coverage.
Carolina Panthers (+9) at Denver Broncos
My pick: Carolina Panthers +9
-110 at DraftKings
There’s a time in every terrible team’s lifecycle when they get so bad, that they actually become a good bet.
Week 8 is that week for the Carolina Panthers.
After getting ransacked by the Commanders last weekend, oddsmakers are daring us to bet on Carolina when it travels to face the Denver Broncos this Sunday. This line has become a game of gambling chicken, with the Broncos opening at -7 and taking action all the way to -9.
That may be the breaking point, as some books have now come off Carolina +9 and down to +8.5. One sharper shop wasn’t even interested in playing that game and stayed at +8 after the initial adjustment.
There’s not much I can say about Carolina to back up this bet, other than teams are never as bad or as good as their last appearance. And the Panthers looked pretty damn bad last time out.
The same school of thought could be applied to the Broncos, who took advantage of the ghost of the New Orleans Saints last Thursday and beat up a bunch of third-stringers for a 33-10 win.
If we look at some of the other teams laying the lumber this week, we find heavyweights like the Chiefs, Ravens and Lions as big chalk. Denver doesn’t deserve to be this big a favorite, no matter how shitty the Panthers are, and this mountain of points is a tall task for an offense rating in the bottom third of the league in most advanced metrics.
The Panthers' defense is far from formidable, but this group could get a number of bodies back in Week 8 after having the stop unit stripped of several starters due to injuries in the opening weeks of the season. Carolina also got a scare on Tuesday when veteran QB Andy Dalton and his family were involved in a car accident, but all accounts sound as though everyone was OK.
This is going to be a conflicting game for me, as I took Denver as my Week 8 survivor pool selection in Covers’ 10K Pro Football Survivor contest. I’m looking for a Broncos win, but not by too much.
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