Pittsburgh Steelers Predictions, Picks, Odds & Season Preview for 2024-25: Offensive Woes

The Pittsburgh Steelers answered their offseason questions with more questions. What is this, a presidential debate?

The franchise replaced much-maligned offensive coordinator Matt Canada with Arthur Smith, fresh from a forgettable stint in Atlanta, and tried to solve their continuing post-Roethlisberger woes with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields — two QBs who got run out of their starting jobs.

Those uncertainties have the Steelers on track for Mike Tomlin’s first losing season, at least that’s what the NFL odds think. Pittsburgh is a favorite in only six games and the season win total sits on the fence at 8.5 with a lean to the Under.

Life in the AFC North and a 2024 schedule that ranks among the toughest in the league are helping anchor expectations in the Steel City. Here are my NFL picks and 2024 Pittsburgh Steelers NFL betting preview.

Pittsburgh Steelers odds

Market
Win Super Bowl	+5000
Win conference	+2800
Win division	+800
Make playoffs	+185
Over 8.5 wins	+135
Under 8.5 wins	-160

Best futures bet: Fourth in AFC North (-110)

Tell me you’re betting against Mike Tomlin without betting against Mike Tomlin. The Steelers' “finishing division position” market allows you to skirt Tomlin’s winning streak, pegging the Pittsburgh Steelers for a fourth-place finish in a loaded AFC North.

Baltimore and Cincinnati tangle at the top and Cleveland should be a distant third. The Browns have the same 8.5-win total as the Steelers, but the Over is juiced to -140 and the look-ahead lines have Cleveland as a fave in nine games versus only six for Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh Steelers at a glance: Lean on D

While the offensive side of the ball is a bag of cats, the Steelers' defense will once again rank among the elite. The stop unit is up against some top-tier scoring attacks, especially in the back half of the season. 

What will win bets: Defense

Pittsburgh is projected to once again be a Top 10 stop unit, coming off a year in which the defense finished sixth in DVOA and seventh in EPA allowed per play. Tomlin’s defense brings the blitz, gets pressure on passers, and capitalizes on mistakes with takeaways. Those game-changing plays win bets.

Health plays a big role in just how good the Steelers will be on defense but as long as T.J. Watt is out there wreaking havoc, Pittsburgh backers have a chance. The Steelers allowed just shy of 20 points per game in 2023 and were 8-1 ATS when keeping foes below that bar.

What will lose bets: Passing game

Pittsburgh was hoping to get clarity on their QB quandary in the preseason, but the sack-heavy performances from Russell Wilson and Justin Fields haven’t helped. Arthur Smith is running a lot of play-action, attempting to establish the run and create opportunities to hit downfield off misdirection. Unfortunately, the cupboard is almost bare in terms of receivers.

George Pickens and TE Pat Freiermuth are the reliable options but there’s not much beyond those two targets, hence the press to land WR Brandon Aiyuk in a trade with San Francisco (which delayed me writing this preview). The Steelers ranked 25th in EPA per dropback in 2023 and sat among the least explosive passing attacks out there. It could be more of the same in 2024.

Pittsburgh Steelers schedule + spot bet: Steely schedule

Being part of the AFC North guarantees six slobber-knockers on the schedule as the division always plays itself tough. On top of those rivalries, the Steelers run into contenders like Atlanta, Dallas, the Jets, Philadelphia, and Kansas City. 

It all adds up to the toughest slate in the pros, with bookmakers setting Pittsburgh as a point spread pup in 11 games. That’s fine with Steelers bettors, who have feasted at the trough of Tomlin, with the head coach boasting a 55-31-4 ATS record (63%) as an underdog since 2007. He’s won 52% of those games outright too.

Pittsburgh has several winnable games in the opening nine matchups, sitting between -4 and +2.5 in those contests and giving the points in five of those outings. Things get much trickier from Week 11 onward, with all six divisional games and opponents like Philadelphia and Kansas City (on Xmas Day) on the calendar. Pittsburgh is a favorite only once in the closing eight outings of 2024.

Spot bet: Week 16 @ Baltimore (+6, 42.5)

The harrowing home stretch mentioned above rears its ugly head most in Week 16. 

Trips to Baltimore are always intense but this Saturday's swing to the DMV will be Pittsburgh’s second straight road outing on a short week and its fifth road game in a span of seven weeks. 

Tomlin’s team has been a dog of +6 or higher only 21 times since 2007 and he’s 13-7-1 ATS when catching those big points. He’s also been awesome against the spread in Baltimore, going 11-6 ATS all-time versus the Ravens on the road.

There’s a look-ahead spot sprinkled on top too, with Kansas City coming to Acrisure Stadium for a Christmas Day date on that following Wednesday. Merry Xmas.

Don’t fuss with DangerRuss

Market
To win MVP	+10000
To win CPOY	+3000
To lead NFL in passing TD	+4500
To lead NFL in passing yards	+10000

BACK TO TOP

Market
Over 17.5 passing TD	+100
Under 17.5 passing TD	-125
25+ passing TD	+300
30+ passing TD	+1600

BACK TO TOP

Market
Over 2,750.5 passing yards	+110
Under 2,750.5 passing yards	-135
4,000+ passing yards	+1100

BACK TO TOP

Best prop: Under 17.5 Touchdowns Passes (-125)

Even if Wilson wins the QB1 spot and holds on to it, neither of which is guaranteed, he’s running an offense that’s dedicated to establishing the ground game. When Wilson does drop back, he’s limited in options with a shallow depth chart at receiver (barring the Aiyuk move). Pittsburgh finished with only 13 passing TDs in 2023.

And, if the Steelers do sneak inside the red zone, Arthur Smith isn’t dialing up the pass. Desmond Ridder attempted only 43 passes inside the 20-yard line under Smith’s system in 2023 and Pittsburgh has a potent ground game with RBs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. On top of that, Justin Fields is a red-zone weapon and will likely have his own package when knocking on the door of the end zone.

Player projections for Wilson range due to the QB controversy, but some smarter models aren’t buying into a career resurgence in Steel Town. Those forecasts call for less than 10 touchdown passes from Wilson in 2024, which is a lot of headroom with the total at 17.5.

Pittsburgh Steelers trend: One-score games

A good indicator of great coaching is how a team performs in the crunch. To steal a line from OutKasts, Mike Tomlin has been “cooler than a polar bear's toenails” in close games. 

Over the past four seasons, the Steelers are a collective 32-11 SU and 29-13-1 ATS in one-score games (decided by eight points or less). That includes a 9-2 SU and ATS count in 2023’s nail-biters. 

Now, those fortunes in one-score games can quickly flip, but Pittsburgh has proved profitable when the going gets tough. And while it’s impossible to predict those close calls, we can look at the Steelers’ tightest spreads: ranging from -3 to +3. 

The team’s 2024 look-ahead lines have 12 spreads in that field goal range. Tomlin is a remarkable 65-45 SU and 62-43-5 ATS (59%) in games with a closing spread between -3 and +3.

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