Fade bad defenses.
That's that strategy I'm deploying with my NFL player props for Week 12, trying to capitalize on opportunity, matchup... and good ol' fashioned effort that bad defensive units put in to remain bad.
That's why my NFL picks this week feature two running backs going against two of the NFL's saddest run defenses, as well as a pair of zone-destroying WRs going against some iffy zone coverage teams.
Latest NFL prop picks
Allen o192.5 pass yards
(-113 at FanDuel)
Metcalf long rec o23.5 yards
(-120 at bet365)
St. Brown o72.5 rec yards
(-114 at FanDuel)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
NFL player props for Week 12
Brandon Allen Over 192.5 passing yards
The San Francisco 49ers moved to +5.5 yesterday with the announcement that starting QB Brock Purdy (and star DE Nick Bosa) will not play this weekend, opening the opportunity not only for Brandon Allen to play under center... but for bettors to jump on a low passing yardage total against a Green Bay Packers defense that is also banged up.
Now, I understand that Allen hasn't started an NFL game since 2021 (a meaningless Week 17 game). However, he's a veteran quarterback who won't be overwhelmed by the moment, and playing in Kyle Shanahan's system — with weapons in Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, and likely George Kittle at his disposal — is as ideal a plug-and-play situation for a QB as any spot in the league.
Allen will also face a Packers defense that has allowed about 226 passing yards per game, blitzes at the seventh-lowest rate in the league, and has seen opposing QBs go for 200+ in 8/10 matchups. Plus, Green Bay is also dealing with injuries: Star CB Jaire Alexander and MLB Edgerrin Cooper will be out as well.
After seeing how Seattle carved up the Niners defense following Bosa's injury last week, Green Bay should also be able to put up points, meaning San Francisco won't have the luxury of just running nonstop and will have to throw the ball to keep pace.
FanDuel is offering the best number for Allen right now — with some outlets as high as 198.5, and with industry projections sitting around 212 yards, I'm confident he does enough to get Over this total on Sunday.
Pick made on 11-23
D.K. Metcalf longest reception Over 23.5 yards
D.K. Metcalf returned to the field last week following a two-game absence and was right back to his usual self, catching seven of nine targets for 70 yards.
That also included a 26-yard reception, marking the sixth time in his last seven games he's caught a pass of 24+ yards (the one failure was a long catch of 22 yards), and I like his odds to connect with QB Geno Smith for another chunk play this week vs. the Arizona Cardinals.
The Seattle Seahawks receiver is one of the league's premier downfield targets; among WRs with at least 135 perimeter snaps (per Pro Football Focus) he ranks in the Top 20 in deep target rate (27.4%), average depth of target (14.0 yards), and yards after catch per reception (4.3) — plus he's seventh with 12 catches of 20+ yards... and he missed two games.
The Cardinals also allow the 10th-highest explosive pass play rate and deploy zone at a near Top-10 rate, but sit dead last in defensive success rate while in zone. That further helps Metcalf's cause, as he is 21st among all WRs in catches, 16th in YAC, and 11th in yards vs. zone (again, despite missing two games).
Arizona is also 26th or worse in blitz rate, QB pressure rate, and pass rush win rate; giving Smith time in the pocket — and DK time to get open downfield — is a recipe for disaster, and I think Seattle's star receiver makes the Cards pay on Sunday.
Pick made on 11-22
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 72.5 receiving yards
The Detroit Lions juggernaut offense faces off against the Indianapolis Colts this Sunday — and I'm all over Amon-Ra St. Brown's odds to crush his receiving yardage total in a matchup vs. a defense that is both schematically exploitable... and just plain bad.
The Colts deploy zone defense at the second-highest rate in the league (almost 80% of the time), but are in the bottom-third of the league in yards per coverage snap and 8.9 yards per coverage target while in zone (per Pro Football Focus). Overall, the Colts have given up the 10th-most yards per game to WRs, the fourth-highest completion percentage, and have allowed the eighth-most yards after catch.
They've allowed 72+ yards to an opposing pass-catcher in five straight games and nine of 11 this season, while bona fide No. 1s have truly done damage, with Justin Jefferson, Brian Thomas, George Pickens, and Nico Collins all going for 113 yards or more — and the Sun God is a true No. 1 WR.
St. Brown erupted for 161 yards in catching 11 of 11 targets last week vs. the Jaguars and he leads the Lions' WR room target share (47.5%), receptions, and yards. He's also one of the best WR in the league in picking apart zone coverages, sitting fourth among all receivers in yards, third in targets, and first in receptions (with an 85.5% catch rate) when facing zone coverage.
ARSB's biggest games this season came against the Cardinals (11th in zone rate) Buccaneers (sixth-highest zone rate), Vikings (No. 1 in zone rate), and the Jags (who run mostly man but they just stink). This game has the second-highest total on the board, which bodes well for his usage, and industry projections range as high as 85 yards for St. Brown on Sunday.
Pick made on 11-22
Bucky Irving longest rush Over 14.5 yards
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers backfield is a little murky with Bucky Irving and Rachaad White in a relative timeshare, but it's undeniable that the rookie Irving is the more electric and explosive of the duo:
| Bucky Irving | Rachaad White | |
|---|---|---|
| 96 | Rush attempts (season) | 80 |
| 5.1 | Yards per attempt | 3.8 |
| 3.78 | Yards after contact per attempt | 2.98 |
| 30 | Missed tackles forced | 11 |
| 13 | Runs of 10+ yards | 4 |
| 7 | Designed runs of 15+ yards | 3 |
He's had 16 more rushing attempts for the season, but Irving has shown himself to be the superior runner in his opportunities, and even head coach Todd Bowles has acknowledged that Irving could be in line for more looks if he continues his strong play.
#Bucs HC Todd Bowles on whether Bucky Irving has earned more touches:
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) November 21, 2024
“He probably has earned more touches… It’s gonna be by committee, it’s gonna be who’s hot during the week. We know Bucky can do a lot of great things. We know Rachaad [White] can do things, as well as Sean… pic.twitter.com/4Hfux59sx7
The Bucs are coming out of their bye to face the New York Giants, a putrid run defense that has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game, the highest yards per carry (5.3), the most runs of 20+ yards (15), and the ninth-most missed tackles — and they've been even worse over the last four weeks, allowing 193.3 rushing yards per game and 11 runs of 15+ yards in that span.
The G-Men are also starting Tommy DeVito at QB (spoiler: he's really bad) so Tampa Bay could very well also dominate the time of possession and be in a run-heavy game script. That means more touches for Irving, who should break at least one big run on Sunday.
Pick made on 11-21
Brian Robinson Over 68.5 rush yards
With star QB Jayden Daniels banged up (and struggling) with a rib injury, the Washington Commanders could opt to lean on the ground game Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys.
That should mean good things for betting the Over on Brian Robinson's odds, because the Cowboys' run defense is bad.
Like, incredibly bad.
Like, possibly the worst-in-the-NFL bad.
Dallas is 31st in yards against per game (151), 30th in run-stop win rate, and 24th in yards per carry... but have allowed the 11th-fewest runs of 20+ yards; they consistently get ripped for solid gains on the ground — which fits perfectly for Robinson's running style.
The veteran RB has just two runs of 20+ yards this season (both of which came in the same game) but he's still averaging more than 65 yards per game on the season, registering 63+ yards in five of eight games.
But again: This isn't so much about Robinson as it is about his workload: As the RB1, in a run-heavy script, against a defense that has recently allowed:
- Joe Mixon: 109 yards
- Saquon Barkley: 66 yards (in basically three quarters)
- Bijan Robinson: 86 yards
- Isaac Guerendo: 85 yards
- David Montgomery: 80 yards (and 63 by Jahmyr Gibbs)
Also, like the Giants above, Dallas' offense is relatively toothless with Cooper Rush at QB (and no rushing attack of its own), so the Commanders should have the ball for most of this matchup, with Robinson getting plenty of touches to churn out the yards.
Pick made on 11-21
NFL Week 12 prop betting card
- Bucky Irving longest rush Over 14.5 yards (-110)
- Brian Robinson Over 68.5 rush yards (-114)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 72.5 receiving yards (-114)
- D.K. Metcalf longest reception Over 23.5 yards (-120)
- Brandon Allen Over 192.5 passing yards (-113)
Last week: 2-3, -1.18 units
Season: 24-31, -9.24 units
Not intended for use in MA.
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