Fade bad defenses.
That's that strategy I'm deploying with my NFL player props for Week 12, trying to capitalize on opportunity, matchup... and good ol' fashioned effort that bad defensive units put in to remain bad.
That's why I'm starting my NFL picks with two running backs going against two of the NFL's saddest run defenses.
Latest NFL prop picks
Irving long rush o14.5 yards
(-110 at BetMGM)
Robinson o68.5 rush yards
(-114 at FanDuel)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
NFL player props for Week 12
Bucky Irving longest rush Over 14.5 yards
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers backfield is a little murky with Bucky Irving and Rachaad White in a relative timeshare, but it's undeniable that the rookie Irving is the more electric and explosive of the duo:
| Bucky Irving | Rachaad White | |
|---|---|---|
| 96 | Rush attempts (season) | 80 |
| 5.1 | Yards per attempt | 3.8 |
| 3.78 | Yards after contact per attempt | 2.98 |
| 30 | Missed tackles forced | 11 |
| 13 | Runs of 10+ yards | 4 |
| 7 | Designed runs of 15+ yards | 3 |
He's had 16 more rushing attempts for the season, but Irving has shown himself to be the superior runner in his opportunities, and even head coach Todd Bowles has acknowledged that Irving could be in line for more looks if he continues his strong play.
#Bucs HC Todd Bowles on whether Bucky Irving has earned more touches:
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) November 21, 2024
“He probably has earned more touches… It’s gonna be by committee, it’s gonna be who’s hot during the week. We know Bucky can do a lot of great things. We know Rachaad [White] can do things, as well as Sean… pic.twitter.com/4Hfux59sx7
The Bucs are coming out of their bye to face the New York Giants, a putrid run defense that has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game, the highest yards per carry (5.3), the most runs of 20+ yards (15), and the ninth-most missed tackles — and they've been even worse over the last four weeks, allowing 193.3 rushing yards per game and 11 runs of 15+ yards in that span.
The G-Men are also starting Tommy DeVito at QB (spoiler: he's really bad) so Tampa Bay could very well also dominate the time of possession and be in a run-heavy game script. That means more touches for Irving, who should break at least one big run on Sunday.
Pick made on 11-21
Brian Robinson Over 68.5 rush yards
With star QB Jayden Daniels banged up (and struggling) with a rib injury, the Washington Commanders could opt to lean on the ground game Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys.
That should mean good things for betting the Over on Brian Robinson's odds, because the Cowboys' run defense is bad.
Like, incredibly bad.
Like, possibly the worst-in-the-NFL bad.
Dallas is 31st in yards against per game (151), 30th in run-stop win rate, and 24th in yards per carry... but have allowed the 11th-fewest runs of 20+ yards; they consistently get ripped for solid gains on the ground — which fits perfectly for Robinson's running style.
The veteran RB has just two runs of 20+ yards this season (both of which came in the same game) but he's still averaging more than 65 yards per game on the season, registering 63+ yards in five of eight games.
But again: This isn't so much about Robinson as it is about his workload: As the RB1, in a run-heavy script, against a defense that has recently allowed:
- Joe Mixon: 109 yards
- Saquon Barkley: 66 yards (in basically three quarters)
- Bijan Robinson: 86 yards
- Isaac Guerendo: 85 yards
- David Montgomery: 80 yards (and 63 by Jahmyr Gibbs)
Also, like the Giants above, Dallas' offense is relatively toothless with Cooper Rush at QB (and no rushing attack of its own), so the Commanders should have the ball for most of this matchup, with Robinson getting plenty of touches to churn out the yards.
Pick made on 11-21
NFL Week 12 prop betting card
- Bucky Irving longest rush Over 14.5 yards (-110)
- Brian Robinson Over 68.5 rush yards (-114)
Last week: 2-3, -1.18 units
Season: 24-31, -9.24 units
Not intended for use in MA.
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