It’s hard to believe, but the final series' of the MLB regular season are here, meaning we're running out of days with a full baseball board with player props to bet on.
But with some postseason possibilities still up in the air, and young guys trying to make a name for themselves for next season, there is still plenty of value to be found.
Today, we look at a pitcher getting in a final tune up before the playoffs, a hitter finishing his season on a high note, and a starter just helping his team run out the clock.
Check out my best player prop picks for Monday, October 3.
MLB props for October 3
Picks made on 10/3/2022 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Sevy steps up
New York Yankees' starter Luis Severino gets one more tune-up start before the American League Divisional series when he takes the ball tonight against the Texas Rangers.
Severino is making just his third start since returning from a lat injury that kept him out since mid-July. The Yanks will need Sevy to be at his best heading into the postseason, particularly since it sounds like Frankie Montas will be unavailable until at least the ALCS.
The right-hander has looked solid in his first two starts back, allowing just three runs on five hits while striking out 10 batters over nine innings. Severino has thrown 64 and 76 pitches in those starts, so now the chains should be let off heading into this matchup against the Rangers. A matchup that he'll be able to take advantage of.
All that off-season spending for Texas resulted in just 66 wins heading into the final series of the season. And for a team that spent a half billion dollars on its offense, right-handers still gave them a lot of problems. Texas ranks 20th in batting average, 25th in OPS, and 24th in wRC+ this season.
On top of that, the Rangers have been striking out a ton down the stretch. Since the start of September, they have had the second-highest strikeout rate in baseball — getting punched out in 26.3% of their at bats.
With Severino striking out 9.9 batters per nine innings this season, going Over 5.5 Ks tonight looks like a solid bet. Particularly at plus money.
Luis Severino Prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (+110)
Ward county
It’s another wasted season for the Los Angeles Angels. But if they do decide to not blow things up, they know they’ll have a solid trio to build around in Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and now Taylor Ward.
The Halos’ outfielder is closing his season on a high note and he’ll look to keep that going when the Angels visit the Oakland A’s.
Ward has been solid for most of the season — hitting .284 with 23 dingers and a .842 OPS — but has taken his game to another level through the final weeks of the season. Ward is hitting a ridiculous .429 with a 1.202 OPS which includes 10 extra-base hits over his last 17 games.
Tonight, he gets to dig in against A’s rookie right-hander Adrian Martinez, and the transition to the Majors hasn’t been an easy one for the 25-year-old.
Martinez made a few spot starts for the A’s earlier in this season but since joining the rotation at the end of August, he owns a 6.07 ERA while surrendering a .292 batting average to opponents over six starts.
That includes a matchup against this same Angels team where he gave up three runs on five hits in 4 2-3 innings of work. Ward went 2-for-4 with a homer in that game.
And when you consider the fact Ward has gone Over 1.5 total bases seven times in his last nine games, getting +145 for him to do it again feels like a steal.
Taylor Ward Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+145)
Nothing ventured nothing gained
Colorado Rockies' starter Jose Urena has been a sneaky good play in the strikeout market during the last month or so, and that has a great chance to continue when he takes the ball tonight against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Urena has quietly pitched very well since the end of August. The right-hander has pitched at least five innings in six consecutive starts, and into the sixth in five of those six games. Outside of one tough outing against the Cincinnati Reds, he’s been really effective.
Urena has pitched to a solid 3.90 ERA over that stretch and has actually been even better than that with a FIP of 2.99 in those six starts. His strikeouts have also seen an uptick. Over the last six starts, he has struck out 7.8 batters per nine innings, compared to just 4.8 in his first 14 outings.
The right-handed hurler also has the advantage of pitching for the Rockies, who are just running out the clock on the season.
Now, obviously, tonight’s matchup with the Dodgers isn’t ideal, but L.A. doesn’t really have anything to play for at this point and hasn’t played a meaningful game in several weeks. The Dodgers' only concern is staying healthy heading into the National League Division Series so their motivation for this game could be lacking.
In fact, they’ve been striking out a bit more since the start of September ranking 17th in K rate over that span.
Urena should pitch deep enough into this game to eclipse this low strikeout total of 3.5. A number he has gone Over five times in the last six games.
Jose Urena Prop: Over 3.5 strikeouts (+100)
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