We’re heading to Arrowhead on Monday night as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Las Vegas Raiders as 7-point home faves, with the highest total of the Week 5 slate at 51.5 points.
The Raiders’ defense just got torched by Russell Wilson, while the Chiefs have the No. 1 offense in EPA/play on the season. Will the Raiders be playing catch-up like the Buccaneers last week?
Find out in my free NFL player prop picks for Monday Night Football between the Raiders and Chiefs.
Raiders vs Chiefs props
- Mahomes Over 275.5 passing yards
- Adams Over 78.5 receiving yards
- Longest field goal Under 47.5 yards
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Raiders vs Chiefs MNF props
From Wilson to Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes looked unstoppable vs. the Buccaneers last week and finished that game with three passing touchdowns and 34 yards on the ground on four carries. Now he gets to face a Las Vegas defense that sits in the Bottom 5 in pressure percentage and just allowed Russell Wilson to throw for two TDs, no interceptions, and a 124.9 QB rating in Week 4.
Mahomes will have a healthy pass-catching group after Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mecole Hardman practiced in full this week. The run game is generating positive results, which also aids Mahomes’ passing output vs. a defense that’s allowing a triple-digit passer rating to opposing QBs on the season.
THE BLITZ is projecting roughly 300 passing yards for the KC signal-caller. Mahomes threw for 664 yards in the two meetings against the Raiders last season and completed 74% of his passes.
If this low-pressure Las Vegas defense can’t get off the field vs. Russell Wilson, Mahomes and a very healthy receiving corps are going to do some damage. The Raiders currently rank 25th in EPA/dropback, and that includes Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, and Kyler Murray over the last three weeks.
His passing yards total has closed at 280.5 or higher in three of his four games this season, so even this total of 275.5 is a discount.
Patrick Mahomes Prop: Over 275.5 passing yards (-115)
Chasing points
With a 32.4% target share on the season, it’s hard to pass on Davante Adams’ passing total of 76.5 yards.
He saw 13 of Derek Carr’s 34 passes last week against a very good Denver secondary, and most of them came against star corner Patrick Surtain II. Now he could see most of his snaps against L’Jarius Sneed, who allowed nine catches on 12 targets vs. the Bucs last week.
On the year, Sneed is the best corner against the run but has struggled in coverage, with 21 receptions allowed on 27 targets. QBs have a 121.6 QB rating when targeting the starting corner. Having a healthy Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow back in the lineup should also give Adams more free space.
Carr threw the ball 80 times in the two meetings vs. the Chiefs last year, and another heavy-volume passing game could be in store with a bad Las Vegas secondary forcing Carr to chase points.
THE BLITZ has him projected for 95.29 yards, and his current total of 78.5 yards is nine yards shorter than it was last week in a tougher matchup.
Davante Adams Prop: Over 78.5 receiving yards (-115)
You don’t beat the Chiefs with field goals
Kansas City kicker Harrison Butker is likely to miss Monday’s game with an ankle injury that he sustained in Week 1. The Chiefs will turn to their third kicker of the season, Matthew Wright, who made both of his field goal attempts last week, but neither was from 45 yards or longer.
We saw Andy Reid opt to keep the offense on the field in lieu of going for three points in Week 3. With Wright being on his third team in three seasons, that might not be giving his coach a ton of confidence either in long-range field goals.
On the other side, Las Vegas kicker Daniel Carlson has attempted just two kicks of 40-yards. With teams more inclined to go for it on 4th down instead of a long field-goal attempt vs. the Chiefs, opportunities could be sparse Monday. The Chiefs have seen only four field-goal attempts against them all year.
With a third-string kicker and the Chiefs facing very few FG attempts, I’m hitting the Under on the longest field goal of 47.5 yards.
Longest field goal Prop: Under 47.5 yards (-115 at bet365)
