Raiders vs Chiefs Monday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Mahomes Gets Shut Down

The wild AFC West closes out NFL betting in Week 5 when the Las Vegas Raiders visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football.

Las Vegas snapped its losing skid to start 2022 with a home win over Denver last Sunday, hoping to take that momentum to Arrowhead Stadium. The Vegas offense is still finding its footing under new head coach Josh McDaniels, with issues when the attack enters the red zone (27th in TD percentage). 

Kansas City, on the other hand, has had zero issues finding paydirt this season. The Chiefs sit second in scoring and hung 41 points on a very good Tampa Bay defense last Sunday night. That production has oddsmakers pumping up the spread and total for this divisional dance in primetime.

I break down the point spread and Over/Under for Monday Night Football and give my best NFL betting picks and predictions for Raiders at Chiefs on October 10. Be sure to also check out our favorite MNF player prop picks for this matchup.

Raiders vs Chiefs best odds

Raiders vs Chiefs picks and predictions

Patrick Mahomes has enjoyed some pretty fruitful days against the Las Vegas Raiders.

Last year, Mahomes posted 406 yards through the air in a mid-November win, tearing apart Gus Bradley’s defense. And over those two 2021 meetings with the Raiders, he averaged almost nine yards per pass and completed more than 74% of his throws.

This season, however, Vegas has a new defensive coordinator in Patrick Graham as well as a deeper secondary compared to the thin unit from 2021. That allows the Raiders to switch up coverage schemes, getting away from a default to Cover 3 and playing more Cover 2, which has historically slowed Mahomes. 

Graham had success with that scheme vs. Mahomes in 2021 when he was the defensive coordinator with the New York Giants. The G-Men checked Kansas City to 20 points in Week 8 and limited Mahomes to a 29 of 48 passing day for 275 yards (just 5.7 yards per attempt) with one TD and one interception.

While the Chiefs torched the Bucs for 41 points last Sunday night, Mahomes finished with 23 completions on 37 attempts for 249 yards, three TDs, and an INT. It was the third straight game in which Mahomes has finished below his passing yards prop total.

His Over/Under for passing yards is set as high as 280.5 for Monday Night Football. That bar could still be too high considering the Raiders’ different defensive looks in the secondary, but also a few other factors. 

The Chiefs’ attack isn’t as reliant on Mahomes to move the chains in recent outings. The Kansas City rushing game has come to life, with RBs Clyde Edwards-Helaire and rookie Isiah Pacheco gashing a very sound Bucs’ run stop for 155 combined yards. Reid handed off on over 48% of snaps last Sunday and has run the ball at a near 41% rate through four games — a noticeable increase from 37.64% in 2021.

The Raiders’ rushing attack could also have a say in how often Mahomes gets to touch the ball. Head coach Josh McDaniels is a big believer in establishing the run and handed off on 51.35% of snaps in Week 4. Heading into Monday night, McDaniels stressed the importance of controlling the game and playing a complementary offense, when it came to running, as to not allow the Chiefs to jump out early and turn the game into a passing shootout.

With more action on the ground than you would expect from both of these offenses (and McDaniels playing keep-away), and the Silver and Black better prepared to push back against Mahomes than in past years, I’m going low on Mahomes’ passing yards total for Monday Night Football.

My best bet: Patrick Mahomes Under 280.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

Raiders vs Chiefs spread analysis

The lookahead spread for this Monday matchup was set at Kansas City -6.5 in the summer, with Las Vegas expected to contend in the division after acquiring top WR Davante Adams in the offseason. And while Adams has been solid for the Silver and Black, a 1-3 straight up start had oddsmakers opening this official Week 5 spread at Kansas City -7.5.

The Chiefs are 3-1 SU with their lone loss coming in a strange road trip to Indianapolis, where they completely outplayed the Colts but lost due to special teams miscues. Kansas City got back on track with an impressive effort over Tampa Bay last Sunday and enter Week 5 atop most NFL power ratings.

This spread did dip to Chiefs -7 at points this week, but as of Sunday morning, the market consensus is an expensive Kansas City -7 with some respected online books up to KC -7.5. WynnBet sportsbooks are reporting more than 70% of bet count and 62.5% of handle backing the home favorite.

The Chiefs dominated their division foe in two matchups last season, delivering crushing karate chops of 41-14 in Vegas and 48-9 at home. Kansas City has covered six of the past nine games with the Raiders, going back to the Oakland days in 2017.

Raiders vs Chiefs Over/Under analysis

The look-ahead total for this game was set at 53 points in the summer — one of the tallest offseason O/U numbers on the board. The official Week 5 total hit the board at 52.5 points and jumped to 53 before buyback on the Under slumped the number to as low as 51 points.

The Over/Under has since climbed to 51.5 and 52 points at some places and will likely go even higher if the public trends toward the Over in primetime, as it’s known to do. The Chiefs' explosive offense will be fueling that action, with KC ranked No. 1 in EPA per play and loaded with playmakers alongside QB Patrick Mahomes.

The Raiders' offense promised points, with its share of skill players. However, Las Vegas hasn’t been able to finish off drives. The team scored a season-high 32 points against a stout Denver defense last week, but six of those tallies came from a scoop-and-score. The Vegas defense hasn’t provided much pushback, especially against the pass — sitting 24th in EPA allowed per dropback.

These AFC West rivals went Over in both 2021 meetings, vs. closing totals of 48 and 53.5 points, and have topped the number in four straight matchups going back to 2020. Both sides enter Week 5 with 2-2 Over/Under records so far in 2022.

Raiders vs Chiefs betting trend to know

For those betting on the Raiders, take solace in the trend that since moving to Sin City in 2020, the Silver and Black have made the most of any extra points handed down by the local bookies. Las Vegas is 7-4 ATS when getting four or more points and 4-2 ATS as an underdog of +6.5 or higher in the past three seasons. Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Chiefs.

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