Raiders vs Dolphins Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 11: Miami Ends Raiders Resurgence

Fresh off their bye week and coming off a loss, the Miami Dolphins will look to continue their domination at home on Sunday as the biggest favorite of the week in our Week 11 odds.

Standing in their way will be the upstart Las Vegas Raiders who are riding a two-game winning streak since firing Josh McDaniels, who was an awful head coach and possibly even a worse human being.

Miami is favored by 12.5 points and the game has a total of 46.5. Let’s dig into how these teams match up and I’ll provide you with my free NFL picks for Raiders vs. Dolphins.

Raiders vs Dolphins odds

Raiders vs Dolphins predictions

It’s been nothing but good vibes for the Las Vegas Raiders over the past two weeks as they’ve gone 2-0 since canning Josh McDaniels, which brings their record to 5-5 and puts them in the hunt for a wild card spot. All wins aren’t created equal though, and we really need to consider the competition they’ve faced.

The Giants and Jets rank 32nd and 28th in yards per play. The Raiders defense took advantage of their offensively-challenged opponents, but I think they’re in for a severely rude awakening against the Miami Dolphins who lead the NFL in points per game and yards per play.

Looking at the season as a whole, Las Vegas’ defense hasn’t been good. They rank 27th on third down, 25th in the red zone, and perhaps most importantly, they’ve struggled to pressure the quarterback as they have the fifth-lowest pressure percentage.

In the three games where the Dolphins offense was tripped up, they faced teams who all ranked in the Top 8 in pressure percentage.

So the game appears to set up quite nicely for Miami’s offense who should have dynamic rookie De’Von Achane returning to the backfield. Miami leads the NFL in yards per rush attempt and should be able to rack up a ton of yards vs. a Raiders defense that’s 28th in yards allowed per rush.

The Dolphins are also much more comfortable playing at home where they’re a perfect 4-0 this season with the wins coming by 50, 15, 21, and 14 pointrs. They lead the NFL in net yards per play at home, while the Raiders rank 25th on the road. Las Vegas has also been smacked by 28, 18, and 12 in road games this season.

Aiden O’Connell will start at quarterback for the Raiders and will attempt to prove he’s the man of the future. O’Connell isn’t killing the Raiders with backbreaking mistakes like some young QBs do, but he’s also not doing enough to make the Raiders an offensive threat. The Purdue product has just a 2/3 TD/INT ratio and a 76.4 quarterback rating in four appearances this season.

He could have his hands full vs. a Dolphins defense that ranks third in pressure percentage, while his passing options could be limited against a healthy Miami secondary.

If you’re assuming I like Miami to cover the spread in this game based on this one-sided write-up, you’d be correct.

While we can criticize the Dolphins for not being able to hang with elite competition, they clearly don’t make the mistake of playing down to inferior teams and I don’t think that'll be the case coming off their bye while also losing last time out.

My best bet: Dolphins -12.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Raiders vs Dolphins same-game parlay

Dolphins -12.5

Dolphins team total Over 27.5

+206 at bet365

Let’s build off that spread bet with a correlated leg to support the Dolphins offense and fade the Raiders defense.

Miami has scored at least 31 points in each of its four home games this season and it should be able to take advantage of a Raiders defense that’s had it extremely easy against Tommy DeVito and Zach Wilson in its last two games. 

The last time the Raiders played a good offense on the road, they allowed 26 points to the Lions, but it could've been a lot more. The Lions gained 486 total yards but three turnovers prevented them from running up the score.

As mentioned above, the Raiders have the fifth-lowest pressure percentage in the league. The Dolphins have faced three other teams that currently rank in the Bottom 8 in pressure percentage and scored 70 points against the Broncos, 42 against the Panthers, and 36 against the Chargers.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Raiders vs Dolphins spread and Over/Under analysis

Some might be turned off by the large spread but Miami has gone 3-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite under Mike McDaniel.

Two of those covers came at home this season against the Giants and Panthers, while the other came at home against the Texans last season. That Texans cover came after their bye which is a situation similar to this week.

The Dolphins are a team that takes full advantage of their home field when playing inferior competition as they’ve gone an impressive 18-5-2 ATS in their last 25 games as a home favorite.

As for this total of 46.5, all four Miami home games have gone Over this season and have had an average combined score of 62 points, but that number is heavily impacted by their 70-point game against the Broncos.

Scoring in Raiders games has mostly been on the low end as their games have combined for an average of just 37.7 points.

As a result, I don’t love either side on the total, but would lean towards the Over. I expect the Dolphins to get plenty of points, which will force the Raiders into a pass-heavy game script.

Raiders vs Dolphins betting trend to know

The Dolphins are 18-5-2 ATS in their last 25 games as a home favorite. Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Dolphins.

Raiders vs Dolphins game info

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