After the NFL betting world watched them knock off Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints on MNF, the Las Vegas Raiders leave the Death Star with a 2-0 record and head to Foxboro to take on the New England Patriots, who got owned on the road by Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks.
Despite last week's poor defensive showing, the Pats opened as six-point favorites. The side hasn’t had much movement after opening while the total is one of the few games that is falling. Opening at 48, the total has since fallen to a flat 47.5 and would need some major help to drop to 47 and below.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Raiders vs. Patriots on Sunday, September 27 (1:00 p.m. ET)
Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots betting preview
Weather
Mostly cloudy skies are in the forecast for Gillette Stadium on Sunday with temperatures expected in the mid-70's at kickoff and winds blowing up to 11 mph. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Raiders: Sam Young T (Out), Nick Kwiatkoski LB (Out), Trent Brown T (Out), Richie Incognito G (Out), Marcus Mariota QB (Out), Henry Ruggs III WR (Out).
Patriots: Jarrett Stidham QB (Out), James White RB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Patriots are 5-0 in their last five games after allowing 30 points or more in the previous game. Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Patriots.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Raiders went into Week 2 banged up on the offensive line and now head into Week 3 with another big injury, as guard Richie Incognito is questionable with an Achilles injury. Las Vegas could be without its two highest graded O-linemen in Incognito and Sam Young, which could be trouble for QB Derek Carr. Carr took three sacks last week and faced a lot of pressure early in last week’s game against a good Saints front four.
With WR Hunter Renfrow questionable, the offense will have to roll through RB Josh Jacobs and TE Darren Waller (like last week), but New England coach Bill Belichick will certainly game plan against that.
The Patriots’ defense gave up close to 430 yards of offense to the Seahawks, but did a decent job stopping Seattle's running backs and tight ends — the strengths of the Raiders. Seattle RB Chris Carson only ran for 4.2 YPC and the Seattle tight ends saw just two targets in Week 2.
Jacobs and Waller ran or were targeted in 46 of the Raiders’ 76 offensive plays last week and could need some help pushing this offense if the Pats’ defense keeps those two in check. New England is in a great bounce-back spot against a team coming off a big primetime win and a short week.
PREDICTION: New England -6 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Neither defense should be proud of their Week 2 performances. The Silver and Black may have beat the Saints, but they were outgained 424 yards to 375. After two weeks, Las Vegas is giving up the third-most yards per play at 6.7. That’s great news for Over backers, as the New England offense ran 70 plays last week and totaled 464 yards on the road in Week 2.
Cam Newton has jumped into this offense with ease as he dialed back the rushes in Week 2 and instead hooked up with Julian Edelman for 176 yards on eight catches. The Raiders’ corners have not had to deal with any big WR threats this year, facing a Saints team sans Michael Thomas last week and a Carolina team without any star receivers in Week 1. Las Vegas has the 26th-ranked pass defense and the 28th-ranked rush defense, per Football Outsiders.
John Gruden and his Raiders have started the season 2-0 O/U and have cleared the key number of 47 in both games.
PREDICTION: Over 47.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
It may have taken a week, but Newton found his outlet in the passing game. After collecting five of seven passes for 57 yards in Week 1 versus the Dolphins, Julian Edelman saw 11 of Newton’s 44 passes in Week 2 versus a good, albeit short-handed, Seattle secondary.
With an uninspiring Tom Brady last year, Edelman averaged 6.3 receptions for 70 yards per contest, and nearly seven catches for 75 yards per game at home. Other than the running backs, the Pats still don’t have much depth for the passing game and Edelman has the perfect skill set to take advantage of the high-volume role.
Las Vegas slot corner Lamarcus Joyner ranks 80th of 105 DBs and could see a lot of Edelman, who has run 75 of his 89 plays out of the slot this year. The New England receiver crushed his totals last week, which were set at 4.5 receptions and 61.5 receiving yards.
PREDICTION: Julian Edelman Over 4.5 receptions (-161)
Raiders vs Patriots betting card
- New England -6 (-110)
- Over 47.5 (-110)
- Julian Edelman Over 4.5 receptions (-161)
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