While it's been a less-than-ideal start for Caleb Williams' NFL career, he's got a favorable matchup on Sunday vs. a vulnerable Los Angeles Rams secondary.
With a chance to get back to .500, my Rams vs. Colts predictions believe Williams is sitting on a big passing game.
Find out more in my NFL picks for Sunday, September 29.
Rams vs Bears prediction
My best bet
Caleb Williams Over 224.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
While it hasn’t exactly been pretty, Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams has now thrown for more yards and a higher yards per attempt in consecutive games after airing it out for a monster 363 yards and 7.0 YPA against Indianapolis in Week 3.
Now, the first overall pick lands another cupcake matchup against the Los Angeles Rams.
The Rams have been gashed for a league-high 9.81 YPA and the fifth-most passing yards while allowing the second-highest EPA per dropback and ranking 28th in coverage grade per PFF. Add ranking 31st in defensive DVOA, and Los Angeles clearly misses eight-time All-Pro lineman Aaron Donald.
It was also encouraging to see Williams connect with rookie wideout Rome Odunze for a breakout showing (112 receiving yards) last week, and the franchise QB clicked with fifth-year tight end Cole Kmet for 97 receiving yards. The statement game from No. 1 receiver DJ Moore is coming, and it's worth noting that all three Chicago running backs are capable pass-catchers. First-year Bear Keenan Allen (heel) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice and could also give Williams another weapon in the passing attack.
BetMGM's O/U of 224.5 is still notably below the 233.5 benchmark Williams closed with in Week 1, and he was pegged for a similar 221.5 for Week 2 after throwing for just 93 yards in his NFL debut. This checks out as the easiest statistical matchup for Williams to date, and he’ll benefit from the favorable home environment at Soldier Field.
Again, there have been a lot of hiccups from the prized first-overall pick, but Williams has also shown off why his name was called first in April. His 8.9 aDOT and 70.9 adjusted completion percentage are both solid marks, and the game is only going to slow down for the franchise QB as he acclimatizes to the highest level.
Caleb Williams best plays from his 363-yard game vs. Colts.
— Dave (@dave_bfr) September 23, 2024
You can see the growth. pic.twitter.com/agsoLKKPdf
Rams vs Bears same-game parlay
Bears moneyline
Caleb Williams Over 224.5 passing yards
D’Andre Swift Over 10.5 receiving yards
Hats off to the Rams for pulling off the upset over the banged-up 49ers in Week 3, but winning on the road with one of the worst statistical defenses in the league is asking a lot, especially with the prowess of Chicago’s stop unit.
The Bears have allowed the fourth-lowest EPA per play while ranking eighth in defensive DVOA and seventh in defense-grade, per PFF. Chicago also has six takeaways and the third-highest QB pressure percentage (31.3%) despite blitzing the fifth least (17.2% of dropbacks). Considering Los Angeles sits 23rd in pass-block win rate and last in pass-blocking grade, I expect the Bears to generate plenty of pressure again Sunday.
De'Andre Swift has been targeted on 16.7% of his 54 routes and turned his nine targets into six receptions for 46 yards the past two weeks. He’s also been on the field for 61% of the offensive snaps for the Bears for the year, and I’m anticipating him continuing to be involved in the passing attack Sunday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Rams vs Bears odds
Rams vs Bears live odds
Rams vs Bears opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +1.5 | Chicago -1.5
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +100 | Chicago -120
- Over/Under: Over 41.5 | Under 41.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Rams vs Bears spread and Over/Under analysis
- There’s been a notable move to the Chicago side at BetMGM. The Bears opened as a -1.5 favorite and are trading at a field-goal margin as of Thursday morning.
- Notably, there has been buyback on the Rams each time their number has reached +3, so continued back-and-forth action is likely.
- This total hasn’t seen as much line movement. The opening 41.5 total dropped initially to 40.5 at BetMGM before climbing back to 41 on Thursday morning.
Rams vs Bears betting trend to know
Los Angeles has allowed the highest passing yards per attempt (9.81) in the NFL through three weeks. Find more NFL betting trends for Rams vs. Bears.
Rams vs Bears game info
| Location: | Soldier Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-29, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Rams vs Bears latest injuries
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