The Los Angeles Rams have faced challenges on and off the field in the NFL playoffs and are up against another one in the Divisional Round.
They cross the country for a Sunday showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles — a team that trounced them 37-20 in L.A. back in Week 12.
Here are my early leans and NFL picks for Rams at Eagles on January 19.
Rams vs Eagles predictions
Early spread lean
Eagles -6 (-110 at Caesars)
My analysis
Following the Los Angeles Rams’ big win over the Minnesota Vikings on Monday night, the NFL odds rolled out the Philadelphia Eagles as 6-point home favorites for this Divisional Round pairing. Some books were even on the other side of the key number at Philly -6.5.
However, some of the overnight action sided with the visitors and we’re seeing some shops down to Eagles -5.5, and it’s a move I don’t exactly agree with.
Before these teams even take to the turf in what will be a chilly Lincoln Financial Field ("feels like" temperatures around freezing with possible rain), Philadelphia holds a significant situational edge.
With L.A. having to move venues (and families) for its wild-card game with the Vikings, the Rams will now be playing their second straight travel game on a short week.
Waiting in Philadelphia is the best two-way team in the NFC — perhaps the NFL. The Eagles offense was run-heavy in the win over the Green Bay Packers in the Wild Card Round but has plenty of passing weapons to stretch the field.
Defensively, Vic Fangio’s stop unit is clicking at the perfect time. The Philadelphia defense has been dominant down the stretch and did a good job against Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford in that Week 12 meeting, scoring five sacks and checking L.A. to just 4.8 yards per pass attempt.
I bet Philadelphia -6 on the opener, expecting this spread to climb to -6.5 and maybe even a touchdown. I’d bet it again if it stays short of six points.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 43.5 (-110 at Caesars)
My analysis
The number opened between 44.5 and 45.5 at most books but quickly took a dive down to 43.5 O/U. Just looking at the offenses, you have two playbooks that want to run the football, which means short gains for extended drives with the clock ticking.
Philadelphia is the most run-heavy attack in the league and rumbled for 314 yards rushing in the Week 12 squash of the Rams, with 199 of those gains from RB Saquon Barkley. As for L.A., it isn’t as dependent on the ground game, but head coach Sean McVay wants to anchor his approach in the rushing attack, putting the ball in the hands of RB Kyren Williams.
The Philadelphia defense is more concerned about containing the passing game. It doesn’t blitz much and plays plenty of zone in the secondary, to dull the threat of anything over the top. The Eagles gave up the fewest completions of 20 yards or more in the regular season.
As for Los Angeles, this defense has been a work in progress, but it’s found its form at the right time. The Rams, who are tough in big spots like red-zone and third-down defense, sit No. 5 in EPA allowed per play from Week 15 through the Wild Card Round.
This total has already dropped through the key number of 44 points, but 43 is another notable spot for Over/Under bettors. I’d lean Under 43.5 before this total ticks down further.
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Rams vs Eagles live odds
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