Conference title games are great and there’s no denying the hype of the Super Bowl. But football bettors get a gift from the pigskin gods in the Divisional Round.
The Baltimore Ravens head to Orchard Park to face the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, in a showdown between the two MVP frontrunners in Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. This is the matchup we all wanted, and it looks as though the odds say it could be too close to call.
Here are my early Ravens vs Bills predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, January 19.
Ravens vs Bills predictions
Early spread lean
Baltimore Ravens -1 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Buffalo Bills opened as big as 1.5-point home favorites on Sunday and early action has been on the Baltimore Ravens, dropping this spread to a pick’em and pushing the line over the fence to Ravens -1 at most books.
Baltimore did get the best of Buffalo way back in Week 4, with the Ravens running away with a 35-10 win as 2.5-point home chalk. The Bills were missing some key bodies on defense, but the Ravens attack bullied Buffalo for 271 yards on the ground and went a perfect 4 for 4 in the red zone.
Running back Derrick Henry had a huge day against Buffalo, rushing for just shy of 200 yards and scoring two touchdowns. Lamar Jackson didn’t have to carry the team and we’ve seen him step back and let the run game go at it. That’s why I’m leaning toward Baltimore in this Divisional Round rematch.
Buffalo may sell out to stop Henry, but that will leave it at the mercy of Jackson and the passing game. If the Bills instead focus on stalling the air assault, Henry runs up and down their defense. You can stop one — Lamar or Henry — but you’re not stopping both.
The Bills, on the other hand, live and die with Josh Allen. Sure, they were able to get RB James Cook going against Denver in the Wild Card. But unlike the Broncos, the Ravens punch back, and Allen will eventually be forced to make throws into a Baltimore defense ranked No. 1 versus the pass.
I see more ways to win lined up for the Ravens.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 51.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
One of my first bets of the Divisional Round was taking the Over 51 points on this total. Since then, the number has come off the key spot of 51 and all operators are dealing the total at 51.5 points on Monday afternoon.
This seems like a low total, considering the company we keep in this Divisional matchup. The Bills and Ravens finished No. 1 and No. 2 in EPA per play on the season and had very little trouble moving the chains against solid defensive foes in the Wild Card Round.
What’s more, you have two of the best quarterbacks in the league under center — two QBs that are fantastic on third down and can extend drives and pick up the needed yards with their legs. On top of that, Jackson and Allen are their own red-zone offense, so don’t expect either team to settle for field goals much.
The look-ahead line for this potential pairing had a total of 52.5 points before the events of Wild Card Weekend. There was very little in those results to warrant a shorter O/U after the fact, as Baltimore and Buffalo posted a collective 59 points and averaged 6.5 yards per play.
I’m steering into the skid and banking on plenty of points in this Divisional Round clash.
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Ravens vs Bills live odds
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