Ravens vs Browns Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 4: Offenses Stuck in the Mud

Week 4 in the NFL features a battle between AFC North rivals as the Baltimore Ravens face off against the Cleveland Browns. Both of these teams are 2-1 and in a three-way tie atop the division in what should be an absolute dogfight this season.

Oddsmakers are expecting a close contest between these rivals as NFL betting lines opened the Browns as 2.5-point home favorites and the Over/Under at 42. Here are my best Ravens vs. Browns free NFL picks for Sunday, October 1. 

Ravens vs Browns odds

Ravens vs Browns predictions

The Cleveland Browns defense has been nothing short of dominant and leads the league in EPA/Play and pressure rate. They limited the Bengals to three points in their season opener and again allowed just three points last week when they held the Titans to just 94 total yards of offense — the franchise's lowest number in almost 50 years. Although the Steelers scored 26 points in Week 2, they scored two touchdowns off turnovers and their offense mustered just 255 yards and nine first downs. 

While the Browns have been dominating on defense, they haven't looked great on offense and the loss of All-Pro running back Nick Chubb to a season-ending injury really hurts. Quarterback Deshaun Watson is coming off his best performance in years, but that was against a terrible Titans pass defense, and he simply hasn't looked like the Pro Bowl-caliber passer that he was with the Texans earlier in his career. 

Now Watson and the Browns face a stingy Baltimore Ravens stop unit that ranks sixth in defensive EPA and second in success rate. Baltimore's defense (especially against the run) has really taken off after trading for Pro Bowl linebacker Roquan Smith last year and sophomore safety Kyle Hamilton is a Swiss Army Knife that looks poised for a breakout year. 

That said, Baltimore's offense has been stagnant and is struggling to implement its new vertical passing system under Todd Monken. Lamar Jackson remains a dangerous runner, but he's averaging just 202.7 passing yards per game and the Ravens offense struggled with turnovers and execution in last week's 22-19 loss to the Colts. Injuries are also an issue for Baltimore's attack, with center Tyler Linderbaum, left tackle Ronnie Stanley, running back Gus Edwards, and receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman all questionable for Sunday. 

Like the Browns, the Ravens also lost their most explosive running back J.K. Dobbins to a season-ending injury. If Edwards doesn't pass concussion protocol, the Ravens could be forced to go to their practice squad for a running back. 

Despite key injuries at running back, both of these offenses prefer to lean on their ground games, with Baltimore first in the league in rushing play percentage (53%) and Cleveland sixth (48.2%). Even without Dobbins and Chubb, they won't force the ball downfield and will simply have less big-play ability out of the backs that they do feed the ball to. That should result in a low-scoring defensive battle with both teams trying to establish the run, control the clock, and get good field position. Even with this total sitting at a low number, I'm playing the Under. 

My best bet: Under 41 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Ravens vs Browns same-game parlay

Under 40.5 (-105)
Both teams combined field goals: Over 3.5 (+120)
First drive Ravens: Punt (-125)

+700 at bet365

Both of these teams have been locking teams down in the red zone and with scoring hard to come by in this matchup, these teams will take points when they can get them. That should mean plenty of field goal attempts for Cleveland's Dustin Hopkins, who has banged out at least two field goals in every game this season, and Baltimore's Justin Tucker, the most accurate kicker in NFL history.

Since I'm expecting a low-scoring contest, it also makes sense to bank on the Ravens not scoring on their first possession of the game. Keep in mind that the Ravens had five three-and-outs against the Colts last week and the Browns have an opponent third-down conversion rate of just 19.51%.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Ravens vs Browns spread and Over/Under analysis

The lookahead line for this game had the Browns as 1.5-point home favorites but after their Week 3 victory, this line officially hit the board at -2.5. The lookahead total was at 44.5, but plummeted to 42 following another exceptional performance from Cleveland's defense and then quickly dropped even further to 41.

The Browns are now 2-1 SU and ATS with double-digit victories against the Bengals and Titans. They lost by four points to Pittsburgh in Week 2 but actually outgained the Steelers by 153 yards but couldn't overcome a pair of turnovers that were returned for touchdowns. 

Sloppy mistakes are also what hurt the Ravens in their 22-19 overtime loss to the Colts last week. The Ravens had won and covered the spread in their first two games of the season but early fumbles and poor clock management down the stretch cost them against Indianapolis. 

Ravens vs Browns betting trend to know

In the last seven games between these rivals, the Under is 5-2 while the Ravens have gone 5-2 ATS. Find more NFL betting trends for Ravens vs. Browns.

Ravens vs Browns game info

Ravens vs Browns latest injuries

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