Ravens vs Chargers SNF Prop Bets: Lamar Leaves the Running up to Tailbacks

Prop bet #1: Herbert held in check 

This one is simple: the Ravens’ defense is elite. Save for a blunder of a Week 11 loss to the Cleveland Browns, where they surrendered 33 points, Baltimore has allowed just three other teams to hit the 21-point plateau.

They’re even stingier in the passing game. There is one quarterback they’ve faced in the first 11 games of the year that’s surpassed the 252.5-yard passing line in the Justin Herbert odds on Sunday. Jared Goff threw for 284 yards against this defense in a Week 7 blowout, and that’s it.

Herbert will be the best pivot the Ravens D has faced so far this season. That’s no disrespect to C.J. Stroud, who had yet to become this Stroud when they faced the Texans in Week 1.

It's also no disrespect to Joe Burrow, who was dealing with a bad calf in the first meeting and then left early in last week’s matchup with a wrist injury that ended his season.

Herbert and the Chargers are 4-6 and come into this one having lost two games in a row. His numbers, as always, look good, and he’s crossed this total five times in the last six games. The one team that contained him over that stretch was the New York Jets, one of the better defenses in football, and they held him to 136 yards.

Prior to this stretch, Herbert faced an elite Dallas Cowboys defense in Week 6, and put up just 227 yards through the air. Those teams also combined to sack Herbert six times with an interception.

Baltimore has confounded quarterbacks all season, holding the opposition to a paltry 169.7 passing yards per game. Cleveland and Dallas are the only other teams under the 170-yard threshold. 

Justin Herbert prop: Under 252.5 passing yards (-125 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Mitchell makes an impact

Just three weeks ago, Keaton Mitchell burst onto the scene with an incredible performance in his second NFL career game. He carried nine times for 138 yards with a highlight-reel 40-yard TD run, announcing himself as potentially the next one in the line of standout Ravens’ running backs.

It’s been a more realistic run in his last two, though. Mitchell did have an electric 39-yard TD run against Cleveland, but had only three carries for 34 yards for the game. He had more volume against Cincy, but his eight totes amassed just 33 yards.

Los Angeles has a decent run defense, allowing 102 yards per game, but Mitchell doesn’t need to go supernova — he just needs to rip off a chunk run to work his way past this total.

The Chargers have allowed at least seven players to cross 42.5 yards rushing on the year, which is the line set in the Keaton Mitchell odds.

With Justice Hill totaling just three carries the last two weeks, Mitchell should see the second-most carries behind Gus Edwards.

Don’t let L.A.’s league-worst passing defense deter you, as Baltimore leads the NFL with 355 rush attempts through 11 games. While the passing attack can succeed, their bread-and-butter revolves around pounding the rock.

Keaton Mitchell prop: Over 42.5 rushing yards (+100 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Lamar limited on the ground

I expect to see Lamar Jackson as more of a pocket passer on Sunday night.

He’s always going to be a dual threat, but 2023 is just a little different than previous Lamar seasons. He’s currently 13th in passing with 2,441 yards, but he’s carrying a Top-4 average in yards per attempt at 8.1. That tells me he's seeking shots downfield, when a younger Jackson would tuck it and run.

The result is a more dangerous and calculated run attack. And that’s why we’re targeting the Under for the longest run in the Lamar Jackson odds at 13.5.

Through 11 games, Jackson has broken a run of 14 yards or more in a game just four times. He hasn’t had a run of more than 10 yards in the last two weeks — in games that Baltimore put up 34 points against Cincinnati and 31 against Cleveland.

Seeing a Baltimore team hanging 30+ on someone used to mean a spectacular run game from Jackson, but that doesn’t need to be the case anymore. He’s actually just crossed this total once in the last six weeks, but the Ravens are a sturdy 5-1 in those games.

Lamar Jackson prop: Longest rush Under 13.5 yards (-115 at BetMGM)