Ravens vs Chiefs TNF Prop Bets: Airing It Out

Prop bet #1: Patrick Mahomes Over 258.5 passing yards

-114 at FanDuel

There are multiple sportsbooks with Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes at 262.5 passing yards, so this outlier low number immediately stands out. I’m also anticipating positive regression in the vertical attack for Mahomes and the Chiefs right off the hop in 2024. Mahomes finished with a career-low 7.0 yards per target and 6.8 aDoT last year, after all.

The late-season emergence of wide receiver Rashee Rice, and selection of speedster Xavier Worthy in the 2024 NFL Draft project to complement tight end Travis Kelce in keeping defenses honest. I also particularly value running backs Isiah Pacheco and Samaje Perine both profiling as capable pass-catching options out of the backfield.

This is also a new-look Baltimore Ravens defense with first-year coordinator Zach Orr at the helm, and he’ll have his hands full with Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid next to automatic when equipped with extra time to game plan and prepare.

Prop bet #2: Rashee Rice Over 60.5 receiving yards

-114 at FanDuel

It took time for the Chiefs to ease Rashee Rice into the right role last year as a rookie, but he became a go-to weapon in the passing game and recorded 61 or more passing yards in five of the final six games. The six-week stretch went to the tune of 43 receptions on 56 targets for 518 yards and three touchdowns, and there’s no reason to expect Rice to cede away targets Thursday, with fellow receiver Marquise Brown doubtful to suit up because of a shoulder injury.

Rice garnered a 23.2% target share following the KC bye week last year, and he also caught four of his five targets for 35 yards in his lone dress rehearsal against the Detroit Lions in the second week of the preseason this summer. I also value that our NFL player prop projections have Rice pegged for 75.3 receiving yards in the opener.

Prop bet #3: Justin Watson Over 15.5 receiving yards

-114 at FanDuel

Continuing with the KC passing attack, seventh-year receiver Justin Watson should run consistent outside routes, and his familiarity with the offense bodes well for Week 1. Worthy could be eased into action just like Rice was last season, and as noted, Brown (shoulder) is unlikely to suit up. As a result, this low Watson total has my attention. 

Watson recorded 16 or more receiving yards in 13 of 20 games last season, including three of four playoff contests. His 18.8 aDoT and 17.0 yards per reception also both top his 15.5 receiving yards total for Thursday Night Football. Finally, I’m anticipating multiple easy looks from Mahomes to Watson, with the Baltimore defense having its hands full accounting for Kelce, Rice, Worthy, and the Chiefs' ground game.