After an encouraging 10-win season a year ago, the Miami Dolphins have been among the disappointments of the season through nine weeks.
The two-win Miami squad won't find things any easier on Thursday Night Football, as Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens come to town.
Can you trust the 'Phins as NFL betting underdogs or is Baltimore a safe bet? Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for Ravens vs. Dolphins on Thursday, November 11.
Ravens vs Dolphins odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Dolphins opened this AFC matchup as touchdown underdogs, but bettors were quick to jump on the Ravens at that number moving the line to 7.5. The total hit the board at 47 and has been bet down slightly to 46.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Ravens vs Dolphins picks
Picks made on 11/9/2021 at 3:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for NFL Week 10, here are two of the best welcome bonuses available:
USA: Lamar Jackson Over 50.5 rush yards + 1+ Pass TD BOOSTED to +100 at Caesars. Claim Now
Canada: Get a 100%-matched sign-up bonus (up to $400) at BetVictor. Claim Now
Ravens vs Dolphins game info
• Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
• Date: Thursday, November 11, 2021
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX, NFL NETWORK
Ravens at Dolphins betting preview
Weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Key injuries
Ravens: James Proche WR (Out), Latavius Murray RB (Out), Ar'Darius Washington WR (Out), Jaylon Ferguson EDGE (Out), Patrick Mekari OL (Out), Nick Boyle TE (Out), Brandon Williams NT (Out).
Dolphins: Sheldrick Redwine S (Out), Elijah Campbell DB (Out), Darius Hodge LB (Out), Greg Little T (Out), Hunter Long TE (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Ravens are 0-4 ATS this season when favored by 6.5 points or more. Find more NFL betting trends for Ravens vs. Dolphins.
Ravens vs Dolphins predictions
Dolphins +7.5 (-110)
Even without Tagovailoa, the Dolphins ended a seven-game losing streak last week by taking care of business as 4-point favorites against the Texans in a 17-9 win. It was the fourth straight week Miami has gotten a solid performance out of its defense.
Meanwhile, the Ravens bounced back from their embarrassing loss to the Bengals with a 34-31 victory over the Vikings last week. But while Baltimore is 6-2 this season, it feels like a little luck was involved with that record. They needed a big comeback against the Chiefs, they beat the Lions by just two points and needed overtime to take out the Colts and Vikings.
The offense for the Ravens is rolling, particularly on the ground. Baltimore ranks seventh in offensive DVOA and second in rush offense DVOA. Lamar Jackson has been mostly outstanding, but will the likes of Devonta Freeman and Le’Veon Ball now heading up the backfield, can the Ravens keep up this pace? And if there is one thing the Dolphins do a decent job of (as opposed to outright horrible), it’s stopping the run, as they rank 17th in rush defense DVOA.
But, don’t get me wrong. Miami has been a disappointment for a reason. The defense struggled early, and the offense ranks 30th in DVOA. That said, there is some hope with Tagovalioa under center, and has performed well in his two games against suspect pass defenses (the Jaguars and Falcons), throwing for 620 yards with six touchdowns and three picks.
If he can go, he’ll be facing a Ravens defense that ranks 26th in DVOA (23rd against the pass) and second to last in opponent yards per play.
The Ravens have played down to the level of their competition all season and are 0-4 ATS when laying 6.5-points or more, so you shouldn’t be surprised if that happens again on a short week when traveling on the road. This means of course I will pick the Dolphins and the Ravens will cover in this spot for the first time this season.
But if Tua can go, the ‘Phins should be able to keep their keeps above water and cover this spread.
Over 46.5 (-110)
While this is a second straight week where the spread bet on Thursday night has us a little uncomfortable, the total seems like the safer bet once again. We already talked about what the Dolphins can do to keep this game close, but let’s not overlook the Ravens.
Despite all the injuries the Ravens have dealt with on offense, (can we just take a moment to think about how crazy it is that their top two backs are Freeman and Bell), this is still one of the best units in the NFL.
The Ravens, as noted, rank seventh in offensive DVOA, but also rank second in total offense, and seventh in scoring putting up 27.6 points per game. This is thanks in large part to Jackson, who is looking like his MVP self once again this season. Jackson has thrown for 2,209 yards on 65 percent completion with 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions while adding another 600 yards and two scored on the ground.
He faces a Dolphins defense that ranks 25th in DVOA and 30th in total defense while allowing 26.9 points per game.
I see this game going a couple of ways. The Dolphins hang tough and make some plays against a suspect Ravens pass defense, and the game goes Over. Or the game turns into a blowout for the Ravens, where they do most of the heavy lifting but either Tagovailoa or backup Jacoby Brissett are able to do enough on offense to send this game Over this number. Hint. We like the Over.
Mark Andrews Over 49.5 receiving yards (-115)
Mark Andrews continues to be Lamar Jackson’s favorite target and that has turned up even more recently. The former MVP has targeted his tight end 51 times over the last six games, with Andrews hauling in 34 of those targets for 483 yards and three scores.
But it looks like we are getting a good receiving yard total in this game for Andrews because he has gone for just 48 and 44 yards in each of the Ravens’ last two games — despite being targeted 17 times.
Now, he goes up against a Dolphins defense that has really struggled to contain opposing tight ends. Miami has given up the fourth-most yards to opposing tight ends this season and is allowing them an average of 12.2 yards per reception.
Prior to the last two weeks, Andrews had 57 yards or more in five consecutive games. Expect him to be the focal point of a bunch of Jackson’s throws once again and surpass his receiving yard total in this one.
