It’s Christmas Day, and we’re unwrapping our present, which is the Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers.
It’s an interesting matchup but our focus is on the Steelers and more specifically, Russell Wilson odds.
Here are our best Russell Wilson NFL player props and NFL picks for Wednesday, December 25.
Russell Wilson player prop picks
- Best bet
Wilson Over 0.5 INTs
(-118 at BetMGM) - SGP Pick
Wilson Over 0.5 INTs
Wilson Under 1.5 pass TDs
Harris Under 43.5 rush yds
(+340 at BetMGM)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Russell Wilson prop pick
My best bet
Over 0.5 interceptions (-118 at BetMGM)
My analysis
There were times in recent seasons that the thought of watching Russell Wilson on Christmas Day would be torture but he and the Pittsburgh Steelers are playing good football and this festive matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs is a huge game.
Perhaps unexpectedly, Wilson has made the Steelers better since making his first start in Week 7, as evidenced by winning six of the nine games he’s started.
However, it's fair to say the team’s success is largely built on defense. That’s true but it doesn’t discount the fact that Wilson has legitimately been good. He’s thrown 15 touchdown passes and just the four picks, which isn’t awful.
But we’re reaching crunch time and Wilson has thrown two interceptions in the past month, with both being returned for a touchdown.
The Chiefs are two wins clear of anybody in the AFC. However, the playoffs are a lot murkier for the Steelers.
At 10-5, they're level with the Ravens. They might hold the tie-breaker over their opposition but they need to keep winning to seal the division and forge the easier path.
This means pressure. Wilson and the Steelers simply can’t afford to lose either game left on the schedule and they’re well aware of that. If they fall behind here, which is likely, they might need to take risks. We saw last week how pressure affected Wilson against the Ravens, as he threw a boneheaded pick.
With pressure and game script going against the Steelers’ signal caller, we need to consider who he’s facing.
This is a good Chiefs defense in nearly any metric. They rank just outside the Top 10 in DVOA and are reasonably strong against the pass. The biggest issue is that they’re good at getting takeaways, with 12 interceptions in 15 games.
The Chiefs are more than capable of picking Wilson off and with the pressure and a negative game script, it could force him into taking risks he’d normally avoid.
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Russell Wilson same-game parlay
Russell Wilson Over 0.5 interceptions
Russell Wilson Under 1.5 passing touchdowns
Najee Harris Under 43.5 rushing yards
We’re starting with our best bet and doubling down on Wilson by backing him to finish with Under 1.5 passing touchdowns.
Despite a game script that’ll likely see him throwing a lot, he's going up against one of the NFL’s best defenses. The Chiefs have surrendered multiple touchdowns to just seven opponents in 15 games, and only once in December.
For the final leg, we’re thinking about the game script again and taking Najee Harris to rush Under 43.5 yards.
He’s been a major part of the offense but looking at the past two games, when they’ve been chasing the Ravens and Eagles, you can see that he’s not been featured anywhere near as often, with just 15 carries for 56 yards across both games.
If the Chiefs get up early, then we will see less of Harris and fewer rushing yards.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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