Saints vs Buccaneers MNF Prop Bets: Godwin Spearheads Bucs Offense

Two losing divisional teams will meet Monday night, but thanks to the state of the NFC South, there’s a lot on the line for the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers under the prime-time lights.

With the second-shortest total of Week 13, there isn’t a whole lot to like in terms of player prop Overs, but that isn’t stopping me from hunting all the derivative markets looking for December winners. 

Here are my NFL player prop picks for Monday Night Football’s battle between the Saints and Buccaneers.

Be sure to also check out our MNF full-game betting preview along with out three favorite Tom Brady spotlight props!

Saints vs Buccaneers props

• Trautman to score the first TD / Trautman to score the last TD
• Under 4.5 total TDs
• Godwin Over 67.5 receiving yards

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Saints vs Buccaneers MNF props

Juwan-a longshot?

Tight end Juwan Johnson has totaled five touchdowns over the Saints’ last six games, which equates to 28% of the team’s total points over that stretch. Unfortunately for the offense, he was a DNP on Thursday, and his catchless performance last week might indicate an in-game injury vs. the 49ers in Week 12.

Not participating during portion of Saints practice open to media Thursday: RT Ryan Ramczyk (typical rest day), TE Juwan Johnson, WR Kevin White, DE Payton Turner, DE Kentavius Street, DT Malcolm Roach, CB Bradley Roby, DB PJ Williams, S JT Gray

— Mike Triplett (@MikeTriplett) December 1, 2022

As it stands, Adam Trautman would benefit the most with Johnson doubtful to suit up. Getting ahead of the market here is key when taking these longshot touchdown bets, as Trautman is +650 to score, with some books already at +400.

Johnson was priced at +366 to score last week, and if he is ruled out, Trautman’s number will certainly drop. Trautman has 15 targets over his last seven games, so he isn’t a nobody in this offense and has one TD this year. 

This is a low-probability play but coupled with a low-total game, it might be more beneficial for bettors to double up on his first and last TD, which are priced at +2,800 each, instead of just his straight TD market.

This is a low-risk play, and I’m putting only 0.15 units on the first and last TD to win over four units.  

Adam Trautman Prop: First touchdown (+2,800 at bet365) and last touchdown (+2,800 at bet365)

No TDs, please

Tampa has struggled to score inside the 20 and has the league’s fifth-worst red-zone scoring percentage at 50%. The Saints have also been struggling to get six points as they own a 42.8% scoring percentage inside the 20, which is the fifth-worst mark over the last three weeks. Add in New Orleans’ elite red zone defense, and we could certainly see some drives stalling out Monday.

When you have two teams who are in the Bottom 10 in scoring and are combining for just 30.3 total points over the last three weeks, we shouldn’t be expecting many touchdowns Monday. 

Tampa has scored more than two TDs just once over its last seven games, while the Saints have been held to one or fewer TDs in three of their last four. New Orleans is also getting healthier on defense with Marshon Lattimore back at practice (hasn’t played since Week 5) and linebacker and leading solo-tackler Pete Werner trending towards playing. 

These two teams played each other in Week 2 in a game that saw just three TDs which were all scored in the fourth quarter, and one of them was scored by the defense. Only 396 total passing yards were gained in the early-season meeting, which also had Jameis Winston under center. With Andy Dalton in control, the offense has run dry with just 50 points over the last four games.

With a pair of stuttering offenses that are complemented by stout defenses, especially in the red zone of late, betting against touchdowns is a great angle in this prime-time game.

Total Touchdowns Prop: Under 4.5 (-135 at bet365)

Act of Godwin

It’s tough not to look at all the Mike Evans talk this week after a nine-target game where he hauled in just two and not think of hitting his Over 60.5 receiving yard prop. I’m not taking the bait, though, as Brady has been forcing the ball to Evans, and over the last two games, just seven of his 15 targets have been graded as catchable, per Fantasy Pros.

Chris Godwin, who has a receiving total seven yards longer than Evans, is the better bet. He has a 30% target share over the last two games and a 27% target share since Week 7. He’s seen double-digit targets in five of his last six games and hasn’t been held to fewer than six catches since Week 1. Only Davante Adams has seen more targets than Godwin since Week 6, and his receiving total is 17 yards longer than Godwin’s.

The Saints allow over 150 yards to opposing receivers who rank in the bottom half of the league and give up 42% of those yards to slot receivers. 

With a massive target share, a 70% catch rate, and the highest percentage of catchable targets on the team, Godwin Over 67.5 receiving yards is one of the few offensive props I like in this game. I’d love it even more if I could get his reception total at 5.5.

Chris Godwin Prop: Over 67.5 receiving yards (-115)

Pages related to this topic