Two teams that started 2-0 and looked like legit playoff contenders are now trying to hang onto their season in Week 8 as the New Orleans Saints head out west to face off with the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Saints have lost five consecutive games, and the Chargers have lost three of their past four. My Saints vs. Chargers predictions believe that running back J.K. Dobbins will lead the Chargers to victory.
Find out why I am projecting the running back to take advantage of mismatches in my NFL picks for Sunday, October 27.
Saints vs Chargers prediction
My best bet
J.K. Dobbins Over 98.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
It has been quite the comeback for Los Angeles Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins, who had only played nine games in the previous three seasons due to serious injuries. He has 478 yards rushing and 76 yards receiving through six games. That includes two 100-yard rushing games to start the season.
While most of Dobbins' yardage this season has come through big plays rather than heavy volume, he did have 25 carries and two catches just two weeks ago against the Denver Broncos. He is clearly the lead back in L.A. with 110 touches to only 39 touches for Gus Edwards. No other running back has more than three targets in the passing game.
The New Orleans Saints have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, especially against running backs. They rank dead last in total yards allowed and 30th in rushing defense. They allow 5.4 yards per carry and 26 runs of 10+ yards. In the passing game, the Saints rank 28th in yards allowed, but most of that is in the short passing game.
The Saints rank 31st in the NFL in short passing yards allowed per game. That means any pass with Under 10 air yards. Justin Herbert will have no problem playing this game and getting the ball out to his check-downs to get playmakers out in space. That is why I want to play Dobbins in a combination of both rushing and receiving yards instead of just his rushing yards.
The Saints have allowed 52 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs over their five-game losing streak. Those yards will almost exclusively go to Dobbins to in Chargers offense. It is also completely possible that Dobbins hits this number exclusively on the ground against a bad run defense. The combo stat Over is a safer play than taking just his rushing or receiving prop.
Saints vs Chargers same-game parlay
Dobbins Over 98.5 rushing + receiving yards
Dobbins anytime touchdowns
Rattler Over 0.5 interceptions
To go along with our best bet, I am going to add Dobbins to find the endzone. He has scored a touchdown in three games this season, and the Saints have allowed eight touchdowns to running backs over the last five games. Dobbins will be a favorite to find the endzone for the Chargers in a positive game script.
Finally, I will throw in Spencer Rattler to throw at least one interception in this game. He has thrown two interceptions in his two starts and now faces a defense with six interceptions on the season. Playing from a deficit is also a great game script for any possible forced passes into coverage.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Saints vs Chargers odds
Saints vs Chargers live odds
Saints vs Chargers opening odds
- Spread: New Orleans +7.0 (-105) | Los Angeles -7.0 (-115)
- Moneyline: New Orleans (+280) | Los Angeles (-350)
- Over/Under: Over 41 (-110) | Under 41 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Saints vs Chargers spread and Over/Under analysis
• The spread was Chargers -3 before the season, but it opened at 7 and has remained the same as of Friday night.
• The Saints have won each of the last four matchups and covered the spread in three of those four.
• The total was 44 before the season but opened at 39.5 this week before climbing to 40.5 as of Friday night.
• All four matchups dating back to 2008 have gone Over the total.
Saints vs Chargers betting trend to know
The Los Angeles Chargers have only hit the Game Total Over in five of their last 20 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Chargers.
Saints vs Chargers game info
| Location: | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-27, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Saints vs Chargers latest injuries
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