Saints vs Colts Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 8: Minshew Manning Explosive Offense

After a 69-point game indoors last week vs. the Browns, the Indianapolis Colts will again play hosts this weekend, this time to the rest-aided New Orleans Saints, who enter as a slight dog with a rising total according to NFL odds. 

With Gardner Minshew capable of running this Shane Steichen offense indoors and a generous Indy defense, should bettors be backing the Over 43.5 even after the move from 41.5?

Find out in my free NFL picks for Saints vs. Colts on October 29. 

Saints vs Colts odds

Saints vs Colts predictions

The Indianapolis Colts put up 456 yards vs. arguably the best defense in football last week. Gardner Minshew has had at least 350 total yards in all three starts (1,163 total yards) and the game total Over is an easy 3-0. Last week alone, Minshew had 13.3 yards per pass attempt and Indianapolis outgained the Browns by 2.4 yards per play. It was a sub-40 total that finished 39-38.

With the same indoor setting this week, points could be scored in bunches again. Despite bettors moving this total from 41.5 to 43.5, there is still plenty to like about this Over in Week 8.

The Colts’ offense proved it can move the ball vs. good defenses and the backfield of Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss is looking like a tough one to stop with both backs splitting the work and getting ample time to recover.

Minshew is completing 65% of his passes and is hitting his deep shots with six passes of 40+ yards through 105 completions. His metrics show a league-average QB who knows his coach’s system and runs plays at the fastest pace of play in football. 

In games Minshew has started, the combined scores have been 51, 57 and 77. The offense has been scoring but the defense has also been giving it up.

Indianapolis allows 27.3 points per game which ranks 31st in the league. Last week, it allowed PJ Walker to put up 39 points and the Colts' starting rookie corner, JuJu Brents, exited... already without their best coverage corner in Dallis Flowers. 

The New Orleans Saints have the extra time to prep for this defense and after last Thursday’s check-down-fest and the playcalling coming into question, the Saints could be looking downfield more in Week 8 — it’s not like they don’t have the deep-threat talent and they could get their starting tackles back who missed Week 7.

With an indoor track, a fast Indianapolis offense, and a New Orleans offense that can still score even with its Bottom 5 mark in yards per pass, the move from 41.5 to 43.5 isn’t keeping me from backing the Over here in Week 8. Both teams to score 20 points at +160 (bet365) is also something that will be going into the account. 

My best bet: Over 43.5 (-103 at Pinnacle)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Saints vs Colts same-game parlay

Over 43.5

Minshew Over 7.5 rushing yards

Pittman Over 58.5 receiving yards

+475 at bet365

The Colts have been a perfect Over team. The offense is running at the fastest pace in the league and has a lot of talent while the defense has been getting gouged and giving up 27.7 points per game. The indoor track helps and Carr should get some help with the return of some O-linemen.

Meanwhile, Minshew ran for 29 yards and two scores last week. He now faces a Saints team that runs a lot of man coverage (like Cleveland did), so there will be some big lanes to take off. Michael Pittman Jr. also has a sneaky angle following just two catches last week.

He had some blunt comments to the media following the loss to the Browns, so expect the Colts WR1 to get more looks on Sunday. Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Saints vs Colts spread and Over/Under analysis

Minshew and the Colts are hard to trust as a favorite — even a slight one. They haven’t been favored all season and a lot of the love for them is coming from a 38-point outing vs. the Browns and that defense. 

Indianapolis likely should have won that game as they finished with 140 more yards than Cleveland and gained 6.8 yards per play than Cleveland’s 4.4. Just for that, bettors might be getting a better price on the Colts this week and I do favor them on the moneyline at -116 than the Saints. 

New Orleans has the extra rest but as bettors saw in Week 7, this is a team with next to zero offensive identity and Derek Carr and OC Pete Carmichael have not looked impressive. It's an offense I still think can score 20 points vs. the Colts and their injured secondary, but sadly I think Minshew and Steichen have looked better than Carr and Carmichael. 

The Indy defense is my main concern with risk. I’d rather take the Colts’ team total Over 21.5 than the ML but I am taking Indianapolis in my pick-six league at -0.5. 

The Saints were -1.5 on the look-ahead but reopened as a 1-point dog after the Colts’ performance vs. Cleveland’s elite defense. 

This total was 40 on the look-ahead, reopened at 41.5, and hit 43.5 by Wednesday. That Cleveland game really had an effect on the value of the Colts as the total moved 3.5 points to the Over and Indy gained roughly two points. 

Brent was DNP on Wednesday as was starting right guard Braden Smith who has missed the previous two games. Last week, New Orleans played without both starting tackles, and with the extra rest, it’s possible either or both James Hurst and Ryan Ramcyk could draw back in which would be a big boost to the downfield passing game of the Saints. 

Saints vs Colts betting trend to know

The Indianapolis Colts have hit the team total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+2.85 Units / 13% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Colts.

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