The New Orleans Saints see their level of competition go from “pleasure cruise” against the Carolina Panthers to “whitewater rapids” when they float into Arlington to play the Dallas Cowboys in Week 2.
Find out why I believe Cowboys QB Dak Prescott will be able to contribute on the ground as well as through the air in my Saints vs. Cowboys predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, September 15.
Saints vs Cowboys prediction
My best bet
Dak Prescott Over 11.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The ink is still wet on Dak Prescott’s new contract with the Dallas Cowboys, as the team announced his extension just before the Week 1 opener at Cleveland with Prescott getting a four-year, $240 million deal.
Unfortunately for Dak, outside of re-upping WR1 CeeDee Lamb, Dallas didn’t spend much money on the guys around him.
The Cowboys entered 2024 with the least-talented roster on offense they’ve had a long time and could be missing one the lone bright spots with TE Jake Ferguson — Prescott’s top check-down option and quality pass blocker — questionable with a sprained knee. The once-mighty offensive line also looks very different.
While stalwarts Tyler Smith and Zach Martin are top-tier blockers, Dallas is depending on two rookies (one at center) to keep Prescott clean. The O-line gave up three sacks and allowed their QB to feel pressure on more than 25% of dropbacks versus Cleveland in Week 1.
The New Orleans Saints defense was aggressive in its opening game versus Carolina. Head coach Dennis Allen isn’t known for dialing up the blitz, but NOLA brought the heat with extra pass rushers on almost 39% of the Panthers’ dropbacks, which stirred up a pressure rate of 33.3%. The Saints finished the day with four sacks and seven QB hurries, ranked seventh in pass rush win rate at ESPN.
We’ll want to take any results against Carolina with a grain of salt, but New Orleans’ plan of attack must focus on disrupting Prescott and the passing game. Making Dallas hurry will nullify the deep threat, and I believe we’ll see Prescott having to use his legs more than he did in Week 1 (one rush, three yards).
Player projections vary for Prescott’s rushing yards in Week 2, with some models level with his rushing prop number of 11.5 yards and others ranging from 14 yards to as high as 18. My number comes out to 15 yards from Dallas' signal caller.
Prescott rushed for more than 11 yards in 10 of his 18 total games last season, averaging just shy of 16 yards on the ground. With Ferguson likely out, the O-line in transition, and the Saints bringing the heat, I see Dak dashing for 12 or more yards in Week 2.
Saints vs Cowboys same-game parlay
Dak Prescott Over 11.5 rushing yards
Derek Carr Over 0.5 interceptions
Under 46.5
A softer offensive line and an aggressive NOLA pass rush puts Prescott on the move, with my projection at 15 yards rushing.
Derek Carr balled out against the Panthers. Well, this ain’t Carolina. Dallas’ pass rush will decimate NOLA’s protection and the Cowboys’ ball hawks will snatch at least one INT.
This total is too high. The Saints get a true test in the Dallas defense and the Cowboys' offense was much worse than its Week 1 scoreline leads you to believe.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Saints vs Cowboys odds
Saints vs Cowboys live odds
Saints vs Cowboys opening odds
- Spread: New Orleans +7 | Dallas -7
- Moneyline: New Orleans +225 | Dallas -275
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 | Under 44.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Saints vs Cowboys spread and Over/Under analysis
- The look-ahead line in the summer listed Dallas as a 6-point favorite. Bookies opened the official Week 2 spread as low as Cowboys -6 and took money to -6.5 and even -7 before buyback on NOLA shaved this spread to as low as -5.5 at some operators.
- Dallas has covered the spread at a 63% rate over the past four seasons at AT&T Stadium.
- The Over/Under was at 44.5 on the look-ahead lines before Week 1. The offensive outpouring from the Saints puffed this total to 45.5 and that got to 46.5 O/U, where it’s stayed most of the week.
- Ferguson is the most notable injury for Dallas, listed as questionable with a knee sprain. As for New Orleans, there’s a cluster of injuries on the offensive line as well as question marks in the secondary around veterans S Tyrann Mathieu and CB Marshon Lattimore.
Saints vs Cowboys betting trend to know
New Orleans is 13-22 Over/Under (63% Unders) since head coach Dennis Allen took over. Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Cowboys.
Saints vs Cowboys game info
| Location: | AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-15-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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