Saints vs Steelers Week 10 Picks and Predictions: Warren Continues to Steel the Show

On Sunday, we see the Saints arrive in Pittsburgh to face the Steelers in Week 10. These two teams have been near-constants in the playoffs over the last decade but they’re both rebuilding. While both have a solid defense, they’re still lacking on the offensive side of the ball.

Which of these teams will manage to avoid their seventh loss of the season? Don’t miss our NFL picks and predictions for the New Orleans Saints vs. Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, November 13.

Saints vs Steelers best odds

Saints vs Steelers picks and predictions

The Saints are 3-6 and haven’t been able to take advantage of a very weak NFC South and are only just ahead of a terrible Panthers team. Sunday’s home team is at the bottom of the AFC North, at 2-6, behind a Browns team that’s still waiting for their quarterback to come off his suspension.

The common thread is that both teams have reasonably good defenses, but they’re not helped by offensive units that cannot stay on the field for long. 

Pittsburgh’s offense is particularly turgid. Its offensive line has been brilliant in the past, but right now is a mess. Rookie QB Kenny Pickett has some ability, but we’re still not sure if he’s a franchise QB — the team now has this season to evaluate him.

Chase Claypool has been traded, Diontae Johnson doesn’t look as good as he has previously —the one bright spot in the receiving corps is George Pickens, who looks like a future star. Last year, we said the same about Najee Harris but he’s been poor this season. 

Harris has only found the endzone three times, and only once on the ground. He’s had a lowly 3.3 yards per carry this year, and while the offensive line needs to take some share of the blame, he doesn’t look dynamic or have a great reading of the game.

The same can’t be said for Harris’ backup, Jaylen Warren, who has shown some potential in his rookie season. The former Oklahoma State man was undrafted this year, but he’s already had 13 touches this year for 10+ yards — that’s one more than Harris who has just 12, despite Harris having 132 touches to Warren’s 41. 

The rookie might not have Harris’ draft pedigree, but he’s been more explosive this year and the team has noticed. In Week 7, he had 16% opportunity share amongst Steelers’ RBs — that increased to 39% in Week 8, and now, fresh off a bye, there’s a chance that increases further given that rookies often get more work after their bye.

Warren is +300 to get a touchdown against the Saints and that looks like potential value given how he’s performed this year, especially in comparison with Harris.

My best bet: Jaylen Warren anytime touchdown (+300)

Saints vs Steelers spread analysis

The Saints started as 2.5-point favorites, but that’s dropped to just 1.5 with many believing that these teams are closer than at first thought. The Steelers managed to beat the Bucs 20-18 four weeks ago, who are ahead of the Saints in the division but have largely been very poor and haven’t really been close in a number of games.

You can’t get a much harder team to evaluate than the Saints. There are some great pieces there but they’re been destroyed by injuries and inconsistency at quarterback. It looks like Andy Dalton is the man for now, but we don’t know how much longer. 

For me, the Saints are the marginally better team and I’d lean towards backing them to cover the spread here. They have a better offensive line than the Steelers, and even without Michael Thomas or a great QB, they have more game-breaking talents on offense. Given that the Steelers are 1-7-1 against teams with a losing record, I’d go for the Saints here.

Saints vs Steelers Over/Under analysis

Neither of these offenses are in the top half of offensive DVOA in the NFL, so it’s no surprise that we have a low points total for this game. It’s currently 40.5, having dropped from 41 when the lines opened. 

The Over is 4-1 in their past five meetings, but the Saints and Steelers teams we see today are far different and far weaker than some of those teams, and I think this will go Under 40.5 total points. 

The Under is 5-1 in the Steelers’ past six games following an ATS loss and I expect that trend to continue here.

Saints vs Steelers betting trend to know

The Steelers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine against teams with a losing record. Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Steelers.

Saints vs Steelers game info

Saints vs Steelers latest injuries

Saints vs Steelers weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

Pages related to this topic