The Tennessee Titans are riding a five-game winning streak including massive wins over BUF, KC, IND and LAR. They enter Week 10 as 3-point home favorites versus the New Orleans Saints but can the Titans avoid a let-down this Sunday against a Saints team that is 3-0 SU as an underdog this season but could be without the services of Alvin Kamara?
Find out in our free picks and predictions for Saints vs. Titans on November 14.
Saints vs Titans odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Titans were -2.5 on the look-ahead and opened at -3 leaning to the -2.5. This line has stayed at -3 all week but is showing potential to move off the 3 to the 2.5. The total has seen next to zero movement and stands at 44.5. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Saints vs Titans picks
Picks made on 11/11/2021 at 1:22 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Saints vs Titans game info
• Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
• Date: Sunday, November 14, 2021
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Saints at Titans betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Saints: Terron Armstead T (Out), Chauncey Gardner-Johnson S (Out), Alvin Kamara RB (Out).
Titans: Derrick Henry RB (Out), Rashaan Evans LB (Out), Julio Jones WR (Out), Teair Tart DT (Out), Dane Cruikshank S (Out), David Long LB (Out), Greg Mabin CB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Titans are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Titans.
Saints vs Titans predictions
Titans -3 (+100)
The Saints were riding a three-game winning streak before dropping a Week 9 decision to the Falcons which was the first game with QB Trevor Siemian starting under center. The Saints lost 27-25 as 7-point home favorites but Atlanta had a 24-6 lead halfway through the fourth quarter and Siemian and the offense did most of their damage against the Falcons’ prevent defense. The Saints finished 3 for 11 on third and fourth downs and had a -1.0 yards per play differential compared to the Falcons’ No. 22 offense in EPA/play. Now the Saints may have to get back on the winning wagon without RB Alvin Kamara.
Kamara missed practice on Wednesday and if he were to sit, Mark Ingram would take over lead-back duties. Kamara has 840 of the team’s 2,600 yards which equates to nearly one-third of the team’s total yards. Compounding this problem is the health of tackle Terron Armstead who missed practice Wednesday. This Siemian-led offense was not impressive versus the Falcons’ dead-last defense by success rate. Heading into Week 10 possibly without Kamara and Armstead likely won’t help improve the offense against a Tennessee defense that sits 13th in EPA/play and is getting healthier.
The Titans could get the services of CB Kristian Fulton back this week. He was the team’s best CB before hitting the IL after Week 5. The Titans could also force Siemian into some bad throws as the Titans rank in the Top 10 in pressure rate, had five sacks last week versus the Rams, and held them to 16 points and 4.7 yards per play.
Tennessee may also see more familiar faces return to the lineup Sunday with starting linemen Taylor Lewan and Nate Davis and LB Rashaan Evan all having a shot at playing Sunday. All three missed last week’s game. The possible return of Lewan and Davis could be huge for QB Ryan Tannehill as the Titans allow a 29 percent pressure rate. Tannehill could have more time in the pocket than usual on Sunday as the Saints struggle to generate any pressure and rank 29th in QB hurry percentage.
As good as the Saints’ defense is, we aren’t getting behind an offense that struggled to move the ball against the Falcons, could be without Kamara and Armstead, and rank in the bottom of the league in explosive pass plays. It’s a conservative offense that will have to play even more conservatively with its current personnel.
Many will point to a let-down spot for the Titans or that New Orleans is 3-0 SU as a dog but we aren’t buying it. TEN was -4.5 at home versus Indy and this ragtag NOLA offense is not better than that number. If Ryan Tannehill can avoid costly turnovers and get both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones going, there is no reason this offense can’t put up similar numbers against the Saints as the Falcons did.
The Titans are fresh off wins versus football’s best and getting healthier.
Under 44.5 (-110)
Both offenses are in the middle of a transition period and are coming off poor performances in Week 9.
For the Titans, this will be week two without Derrick Henry. The rushing game managed just 2.7 yards per carry last week versus the Rams as Adrian Peterson, D’Onta Foreman and Jeremy McNichols struggled to gain big yards. Asking them to all of a sudden figure it out against one of the best rush defenses in the league is asking a lot. Sure, possibly getting Lewan and Davis back on the O-line should help, but this entire offense managed just 3.5 yards per play a week ago. The Rams had over 100 yards in penalties which helped the Titans’ cause but this offense does not look great and has a tough matchup at home Sunday. A.J. Brown had some drops last week and was limited at practice Wednesday.
The Saints will enter their second straight game without their Week 1 starter at QB. The receiving corps consists of Marquez Callaway who leads the Saints’ receivers with just 22 catches on a 56 percent catch rate. Kamara is the only consistent skilled player on this offense and he's highly questionable for the game. He leads the offense in target share at 23 percent. Finding any bright spots on this offense is a struggle.
New Orleans' defense will look to rebound to top-five form after giving up 27 points for the second straight week. Sean Payton’s defense sits second in defensive success rate (11th vs. the pass and 3rd vs. the run). Tennessee's Mike Vrabel has no problem continuing to run the ball even without success as the Titans rushed the ball 26 times last week (compared to 27 passes) despite gaining 2.7 yards per carry.
The Titans’ defense has gone from one of the worst units in football to respectable over its five-game winning streak. The Bucs, Bills, Chiefs and Colts averaged 20.5 points against the Titans and the possible return of CB Fulton would be a huge boost. This defense also generates great pressure despite not blitzing often. That is bad news for Siemian.
Finally, both offenses rank in the bottom-three in explosive pass plays per game and will need to produce long drives to secure points which we don't have much faith in. We smell a punting contest in Tennessee this Sunday.
Geoff Swaim Over 14.5 receiving yards (-115)
Geoff Swaim may not be a household name and probably rightfully so. He has just 52 yards receiving over the last two weeks as the Titans’ No. 2 tight end, but the former seventh-rounder has played at least 72 percent of the snaps over that stretch. He was targeted on 34 percent of his routes in those two games and caught nine of his eight targets in a low-volume pass attack. He also has TDs in back-to-back games.
He paid +500 to score last week and an incredible +1200 two weeks ago. We aren’t hitting his TD prop yet (it’s OTB at the time or writing) but because of his recent productivity, we finally get an early line of his receiving total.
Swaim’s receiving yard total opened at 14.5 yards which may be five to six yards short. It’s nearly impossible to run against the Saints which could create a few more passing opportunities for Tannehill. Swaim tied for the second-most targets last week and was second two weeks ago. This number will not be here come kickoff.
