Kyle Shanahan’s San Francisco 49ers could be walking the same cursed path as Dan Marino’s Dolphins and Jim Kelly’s Bills: Great teams that just couldn’t get over the Super Bowl hump.
San Francisco once again had its heart ripped out of its chest in the Big Game this February, making it two Super Bowl losses and two NFC title game defeats in the last five seasons for Shanahan’s crew.
Those postseason shortcomings all came after double-digit victories in the regular season and a collective 35-28-1 ATS record over those four playoff qualifying campaigns. The 2024 NFL odds expect another successful season from San Francisco, depending on your definition of “success”.
The 49ers have a win total of 11.5 (Under -125) and the look-ahead lines have San Francisco set as a favorite in all 17 regular season contests – the only team in the NFL to earn that early-odds honor. The Niners are also the chalk to win the NFC and the second overall pick to win Super Bowl LIX.
You’ll have to forgive 49ers fans if they don’t seem too excited by those odds. They’ve seen this all before.
Has Shanahan burned through his golden years or is Lombardi finally coming back to the Bay? Once more into the fray, with my NFL picks and 2024 San Francisco 49ers NFL betting preview.
San Francisco 49ers odds
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +600 |
| Win conference | +250 |
| Win division | -195 |
| Make playoffs | -525 |
| Over 11.5 wins | +105 |
| Under 11.5 wins | -125 |
Best futures bet: Win NFC West (-195)
The San Francisco 49ers won’t need to win 12 games to earn a third straight NFC West crown, so rather than flirt with the win total (Under 11.5 -125) we can lock them in to win the division. The Seahawks and Cardinals are favorites in only five games apiece and the Rams are already off to a rough start with Matt Stafford’s injury.
If you don’t mind laying a little lumber on this future (it's out there as low as -190), do it now. San Francisco could easily be 6-0 SU by the time it faces Kansas City for a Super Bowl rematch in Week 7. It’s a favorite of -5 or higher in five of those first six games and should those spreads hold true, the NFC West title price will be through the roof by October. Some books are currently as high as -227 on this option so getting San Fran under -200 is a pretty good deal.
San Francisco 49ers at a glance: Defensive downtick
Brock Purdy proved he’s for real and has one of the best rosters around him on offense. The defense will still be strong, especially against the pass, but missing Dre Greenlaw doesn’t help plug the holes against the run that plagued San Francisco last season.
What will win bets: Offense
Call him a “system QB”, “Mr. Irrelevant” or whatever else, Brock Purdy deserves his place among the top passers. Sure, it helps to have Shanahan’s schemes, top-tier targets (if Brandon Aiyuk sticks around), and consistency on the offensive line (if Trent Williams gets his money). The Niners were head-and-shoulders above every other offense in the league last season, including “Head & Shoulders” own spokesperson.
The 2024 schedule currently has the 49ers as favorites in all 17 games, laying an average of more than five points per contest. Last season, San Francisco had an average margin of victory of almost 10 points but due to some hefty spread, finished the regular season just 9-8 ATS. Bay Area bettors need the Niners to pour it on in 2024.
What will lose bets: Run defense
Stuffing the run is an area of concern entering 2024. San Francisco finished Top 10 in most advanced defensive stats yet was bottom 10 when it came to EPA allowed per handoff and success rate allowed to rushing attacks. You can have all the pass rushers you want, but it doesn’t matter if your opponent doesn’t have to pass.
Dre Greenlaw’s recovery leaves a big gap in the linebacker corps to start the season and dropping Arik Armstead not only takes away the locker room leader but also the team’s top run stopper. If opponents can continue to convert on the ground, it allows them to control pace and clock and park Shanahan’s offense on the sideline.
San Francisco 49ers schedule + spot bet: Walk the chalk
In terms of strength of schedule measurements, the 49ers sit middle of the road with the NFC West in regression and a few cupcakes sprinkled in before the Week 9 bye. San Francisco is laying -5 or more in eight of its first 10 games and plays host in six of those opening contests.
Shanahan hasn’t been great as a home fave during this time in San Fran. Since 2017, his team is 16-21-1 ATS when laying points as hosts, including a 3-5 ATS mark in 2023. In fact, take out a 7-1 ATS finish as home faves in 2022, and the Niners cover at a 31% rate when laying points by the Bay under Shanahan.
The final two-thirds of the schedule is crammed with postseason contenders, including Kansas City, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Buffalo, Chicago, the L.A. Rams, Miami, and Detroit. Five of the final nine games come away from the Bay as well but the 49ers avoid any late-season cold weather games outside of a trip to Buffalo on December 1.
| Week | Date | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monday, September 9 | vs. New York (J) |
| 2 | Sunday, September 15 | @ Minnesota |
| 3 | Sunday, September 22 | @ Los Angeles (R) |
| 4 | Sunday, September 29 | vs. New England |
| 5 | Sunday, October 6 | vs. Arizona |
| 6 | Thursday, October 10 | @ Seattle |
| 7 | Sunday, October 20 | vs Kansas City |
| 8 | Sunday, October 27 | vs Dallas |
| 9 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 10 | Sunday, November 10 | @ Tampa Bay |
| 11 | Sunday, November 17 | vs Seattle |
| 12 | Sunday, November 24 | @ Green Bay |
| 13 | Sunday, December 1 | @ Buffalo |
| 14 | Sunday, December 8 | vs. Chicago |
| 15 | Thursday, December 12 | vs Los Angeles (R) |
| 16 | Sunday, December 22 | @ Miami |
| 17 | Monday, December 30 | vs Detroit |
| 18 | Sunday, January 5 | @ Arizona |
Spot bet: Week 13 @ Buffalo (-2, 47)
And speaking of that stop in Orchard Park, the 49ers will be up against a well-oiled and potentially frigid crowd in Buffalo for Sunday Night Football in Week 13.
That battle with the Bills will be the Niners’ second straight road game after playing at Green Bay in Week 12 and their third road outing in four weeks. Shanahan is 10-6 ATS in non-conference road games.
San Francisco also faces a schedule jam in Week 6. It plays at Seattle on Thursday Night Football which serves as the team’s sixth game in 31 days to start the season due to a Monday night matchup with the Jets in Week 1.
Fading CMC’s REC TDs
| Market | |
|---|---|
| To win MVP | +4000 |
| To win AWARD | +750 |
| To lead NFL in rushing TD | +600 |
| To lead NFL in rushing yards | +275 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 10.5 rushing TD | -120 |
| Under 10.5 rushing TD | +100 |
| 13+ rushing TD | +210 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 1,150.5 rushing yards | -110 |
| Under 1,150.5 rushing yards | -110 |
| 1,500+ rushing yards | +600 |
| Over 500.5 receiving yards | -110 |
| Under 500.5 receiving yards | -110 |
| 750+ receiving yards | +250 |
Best prop: Under 5.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-150)
Christian McCaffrey has 11 total receiving touchdowns in 27 regular season games for the 49ers, including seven TD catches in 2023. He was the most targeted running back inside the red zone and will once again be a threat when paydirt looms.
However, the more Brock Purdy proves himself, the more Shanahan trusts him in those crucial spots. Despite the 49ers tying for the third most red zone possessions per game, Purdy ranked eighth in pass attempts inside the 20-yard line (connecting for 19 touchdowns). He has viable passing options outside of CMC on short screens, with Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk (hopefully) seeing more love in the RZ in 2024.
Player projections for McCaffrey call for a downtick in his receiving scores in 2024, with models ranging between four and 4.8 TD grabs. He’ll still see plenty of carries in RZ packages but Purdy has plenty of passing options in the end zone.
San Francisco 49ers trend: Divisional Road Overs
The Niners were one of the best Over bets in football last year, finishing with a 12-8 O/U clip in both the regular season and postseason. That included a perfect 3-0 O/U count on the road in NFC West games.
Shanahan is 11-8-1 Over/Under when visiting divisional rivals since 2017, with a 6-2 O/U record in those spots the past three seasons. San Francisco has scored 27 points or more in five of those seven games.
San Francisco 49ers’ divisional road games
- Week 3 @ L.A. Rams (48)
- Week 6 @ Seattle TNF (46.5)
- Week 18 @ Arizona (43)
Not intended for use in MA.
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